And now we’re sprinting to the end. One club – the San Jose Earthquakes – have officially hit the finish line, and 10 more will join them over the next four weeks, one way or another.
Fifteen minutes into this latest edition of El Tráfico, it felt like the game had settled into what’s become a familiar pattern:
The Galaxy get on the ball a lot through midfield and create some danger, if not chances.
As they feel the field tipping toward the goal, they lose some of their defensive discipline and start taking risks both on and off the ball in search of an opener.
A turnover happens.
Denis Bouanga drives an ice pick into their skull.
That’s the script. Here’s what it looks like on film:
Each of the past three El Tráficos entering the weekend, and four of the past five, had followed it to one degree or another.
And that should’ve been it. LAFC were up 2-0, have the most lethal counter in the league, and faced an opponent that, improved as they are, still give up chances for fun. We’ve seen this movie before, and we were seeing it again.
But no. LAFC, you see, have been less and less interested in having the ball over the past few months, and that lack of interest has bred a sort of… I don’t know, neglect, maybe? It’s like they haven’t nurtured their change-of-attacking-phase play.
Two months ago that wasn’t an issue, as they’d toggle from possession to penetration to chances to goals with the flip of a switch. These days, though, they’ve become counter or nothing. And with that, they’ve become predictable overall, and uncomfortable against the best possession teams since there’s no Plan B. LAFC are not dangerous if they’re not out on the run, and everybody knows it.
It’s not a take, it’s a trend: losses to Columbus before Leagues Cup and again in the Leagues Cup final; just one point from six against Houston; and now the most spectacular second-half El Tráfico collapse since the first edition of the rivalry. The counter is becoming less dangerous against the best teams because LAFC are spamming it, and they are spamming it because they are down bad every time they get on the ball. Thus, teams just play to stop the counter. Why bother with anything else?
And so the Galaxy, down 2-0, flipped the script. They went into the locker room, regrouped, and came out of the break hell-bent for leather. The 2-0 LAFC beatdown became a 4-2 Galaxy final, a Hollywood comeback that had LA boss Greg Vanney beaming in the postgame presser.
“In my nearly four years here, this is one of the proudest moments, if not the proudest moment I’ve had with this group, this team,” Vanney said. “Just the response on such a big night, it was the confidence they showed and the personality they showed in the second half. As a coach, it was fun to watch as much as it was to be a part of it.”
So how did they do it? Well, for one, LAFC invited them to have the ball, and the Galaxy obliged. They just made certain to do so more responsibly.
“In the first half, Bouanga kept getting a lot of open space and running at [center back] Jalen [Neal]… it’s not a great matchup. We didn’t wanna be in that,” Vanney said. “So just some different things that I feel like we had to adjust structurally and then see opportunity, and then the guys had to just go for it, and they did.”
The main structural change from the first half to the second, from what I saw, was the positioning of LA right back Miki Yamane.
First half it was a pure 4-3-3 with a single pivot, Riqui Puig and Marco Reus as double 10s, and fullbacks pushing up to attack.
Second half was a hybrid 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 that usually had a double pivot. When Riqui was on the ball deep, he was acting as an 8 with Edwin Cerrillo as a 6. When Riqui pushed up to the 10 line with Marco Reus, Yamane would often pinch inside to become the second pivot instead of pushing up, giving LA numbers in central midfield to blunt prospective LAFC counters.
When Yamane wasn’t pinching inside, he would shadow Bouanga even when the Galaxy were on the ball.
This is a boring clip, but it’s right off of the halftime whistle and it tells you everything you need to know about how Yamane was going to play in that second half:
He’s playing a little higher and with more freedom to find pockets of space, and the result was that 1) he received twice as many passes from Riqui (16) in the second half than in the first (8), and 2) those passes were received higher upfield.
This is exactly what LAFC invite when they drop their line so deep and concede over 60% possession. It’s why the Crew routinely kill them, and it’s how the Dynamo have gone 3W-1L-1D against them over their past five meetings.
The Galaxy, in theory, should be able to do the same thing. They just needed the same discipline in rest defense and in overall structure that both Columbus and Houston have. People get hung up on turnovers, but the Crew and Dynamo both make plenty; what’s separated them from the Galaxy over the past two years is that those teams are almost perfectly structured to deal with turnovers as soon as they happen.
LA mostly haven’t been, but that changed in the second half in a big, big way.
“It just was looking at the first half and saying, okay, we can’t do anything about what has happened behind us. And here are the things I think we need to do. And then we just need to, you know, raise our intensity and raise the intention. And, look, I’m not gonna say everything I said in there. But the guys came out and they were flying,” Vanney said.
“We were getting numbers in the right places. We were moving through spaces. We’re moving through lines. Combination play was really good, but we weren’t just standing in pockets and passing. We were moving direct, we were moving through their lines, and that becomes incredibly difficult to deal with.”
LAFC couldn’t. Dejan Joveljic buried Eddie Segura to open the scoring; minutes later Cerrillo hammered home an equalizer off a feed from Puig. LAFC, desperate now, tried to get on the ball, but that discomfort in possession showed itself as a midfield turnover, gifting the Galaxy a break that Joveljic eventually finished for the 3-2 lead. Riqui drove in the dagger five minutes from time for the 4-2 final.
So here’s where we stand: The Galaxy have complete control of their own destiny in the West with a seven-point lead over LAFC and five games to go. LAFC do have two games in hand and an easier schedule, but the Galaxy should now be strong favorites to finish with the No. 1 seed. They have earned it.
And just for the record, barring injuries I would still pick LAFC over LA should these two teams meet in the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs. As convinced as I am that LAFC have made themselves vulnerable through their allergy to the ball, and as certain as I am that the Galaxy played their best half of the season, I am even more convinced and more certain that a huge part of this result was the Black & Gold going into to the locker room up 2-0 and just never coming back out. They thought the work was done and so they let go of the rope.
LAFC won’t make that mistake again. Of course, if Vanney and the Galaxy learned the right things from the second half, they won’t get a chance to. The script is different now.
St. Louis got most of their transfer window work done early, so we’d gotten to see and know the new boys for CITY over the past month. It all came together a little bit slower for Minnesota United, so we had questions even as we hit the last weekend of summer.
Here, following United’s commanding (and frankly kind of shocking – they hadn’t beaten anybody but San Jose or Sporting KC since May) 3-1 win in St. Louis, is what I think we know about the new version of the Loons:
It’s a 4-2-3-1 that morphed into a lopsided 3-2-2-3 in possession.
The two wide center backs are line-breakers playing north-south. They obviously don’t want Jefferson Díaz to repeat his madness from the loss to the Sounders a few weeks back – i.e., they don’t switch the ball along the backline a lot – but he’s still got license to hunt penetrative passes that skip the d-mids.
Michael Boxall stays deep, makes himself an outlet and keeps it simple, drawing the defense up before playing square to one side or the other.
Wil Trapp holds (duh). His main job is to be available to receive and recycle, and just keep the chain of possession moving when the center backs can’t find a line-breaker.
Hassani Dotson is more dynamic and free-ranging. Part of this is because, while Trapp is asked to protect the backline defensively, Dotson is asked to push up and blunt opposing counters at the source, or to help win second balls when the CBs play long.
Robin Lod played as a traditional No. 10, while new DP Joaquín Pereyra was confined more to the left half-space as a playmaking winger. This surprised me, as I thought it’d be the other way around.
Bongi Hlongwane was a pure right winger who got almost none of the ball in build-up, but created a ton of danger threatening in behind. Also, because of the way the formation changes shape, Bongi’s starting points tend to be deeper than most wingers. It’s like he’s daring the opposing fullback to come up and deny him. If the fullback takes the bait, there’s so much room to attack in behind.
The other new DP, Kelvin Yeboah, is just a pure No. 9, one who’s now got three goals in three games. Yes, two of them are from the spot, but he’s finding chances regularly and putting pressure on opposing backlines.
Much of that was on display in each of the first two Minnesota goals, but most especially Bongi’s starting points both on and off the ball. On the opener – his goal – he’s so deep he doesn’t even seem to be in the play, but covers ground so quickly that he forced the usually reliable Eduard Löwen into a terrible turnover. On the second, he’s so disconnected from the St. Louis backline that he’s difficult to track, and so when Yeboah got isolated on a center back and roasted him, Bongi’s run disrupted Jayden Reid and forced an own goal.
“We want to be a team that can shift between a number of shapes according to the situations we anticipate coming, according to the players that we’ve got in form and available,” is what head coach Eric Ramsay said afterward. “We want to be, ultimately, an aggressive team, we want to be a team that can press, can have more of the ball, can steal the ball higher up [the field].
“When you are playing in a back five, that isn’t as easy as it looks sometimes on paper.”
That diversity of attack is hard to illustrate, but this map of their key passes should give you an idea of what it looks like when things are humming for the Loons:
That’s a lot of different players getting into the final third (and note that Yeboah’s cross on Reid’s own goal isn’t represented there since it’s not technically a key pass). It’s also very telling that most of the attacks are coming down the left side, where Pereyra and Lod naturally like to work, and which then frees up Bongi to poach at the back post. As per Sportec’s numbers, 47% of Minnesota’s attacking forays came down that flank, and just 21% down the other side.
I think this is who Minnesota are going to be down the stretch and into the postseason. And yeah, there will be a postseason for the Loons – at least for a game – as they’ve now got a five-point cushion over Dallas and Austin, and a much more manageable schedule to boot.
12. I think Cincinnati will come away from Saturday night’s scoreless Hell is Real Derby a bit happier than Columbus, even though it was Columbus who got the road point. This was the Garys’ first truly superlative defensive effort in months, and they even managed it without the suspended Miles Robinson.
They need to string together a few performances like this down the stretch and heading into the playoffs. And obviously they need to hold onto that No. 2 spot in the East, because it sure looks like these teams are on course for a rematch in the Conference Semifinals.
11. Philly made things interesting with an early goal, and then kept things interesting with a second-half flurry of chances – many of them off what I’m going to call characteristic mistakes from the Miami defense (neither Toto Avilés nor Sergio Busquets covered themselves in glory) – to push the game’s outcome in doubt.
In between and, of course, at the very end, it was the Lionel Messi show. He returned to MLS action after three-and-a-half months out via international duty and injury, and did classic Messi things with 2g/1a and one outside back soul harvested:
Messi is now up to 14g/14a on the year in less than 1,200 minutes. For his career he’s the fastest player in MLS history to 15g/15a, managing it in 19 games – 10 faster than Sebastian Giovinco’s previous record of 29.
The Herons generated a million chances to lose or at least draw this one, with sloppy midfield turnovers, suicidal back-passes, an injury to David Martínez, and a bit of dodgy goalkeeping early from Drake Callender (he made up for it later). As has been the case all year, it mostly didn’t matter.
Will it in the playoffs? I still suspect if they give Cincy or Columbus, or either of the LA sides, or maybe even Orlando these same types of chances… well, I’m not going to pick against Miami. But while the results instill confidence (they are up to 2.21 ppg; 12 points from their final six games gives them the Supporters’ Shield and the single-season points record), the performances still haven’t. Not really.
Philly will make the playoffs if they continue to play like this down the stretch, though Jack Elliott’s needless yellow was a bad mental error that’ll keep him out of Wednesday’s midweek trip to New York City FC.
10. Speaking of, the Pigeons got themselves a point with a 1-1 draw at D.C., which on the face of it is good. But they’re now winless in seven and the schedule doesn’t really soften until the last two weekends of the year.
In this particular game, I’d point the finger at a sort of disconnect between center forward Alonso Martínez and the midfield. Over the longer sample size, the issue has been a sudden malaise from the wingers, as over this seven-game stretch they’ve collectively managed just one open play goal (from Hannes Wolf, way back on July 20). They’re simply not getting into the box enough:
Agustín Ojeda managed 7.01 box touches per 90 before the start of this skid. He’s at just 2.63 per 90 since.
Wolf has gone from 5.44 down to 4.35.
Santi Rodríguez, who’s split time between the wing and the 10, has gone from 4.2 to 3.27.
Only Julián Fernández has seen more box touches per 90 on average over the past seven games, but he’s played just 124 minutes in that span. Malachi Jones, who’d won the starting spot before a broken leg ended his season, averaged nearly nine box touches per game. That is why he was starting.
The rest of these guys need to be more direct and aggressive when opportunities present themselves. Right now there’s too much waiting for the perfect chance instead of playing with decisiveness in order to put the opposing backline under pressure.
D.C. are, of course, the opposite – they’re often too direct, playing straight up the gut toward Christian Benteke’s head when they’d do well to slow it down just a touch and actually string some passes together through midfield. Doing that allows them to 1) get runners forward so there are multiple attacking options, and 2) have those runners in good spots to re-press if and when possession is lost.
Probably worth mentioning that that’s exactly how United drew the penalty that led to Benteke’s equalizer.
NYCFC dropped down to sixth, while D.C. are still just above the red line in ninth.
9. Just above D.C. are Toronto, who did what they needed to – by the skin of their teeth – in a 2-1 home win over Austin:
That is just a brutally disorganized midfield from the Reds. They have a little bit of breathing room on 36 points, three ahead of D.C., five ahead of 10th-place Atlanta and six ahead of 11th-place Philly. But they are not playing like a team that’ll be sticking around long in the postseason even if they manage to sneak in.
Austin played maybe their best game of the season but lost anyway. They’re now five points behind Minnesota with six games to go and nothing but pain left on the schedule. Stick a fork in ‘em.
8. The Red Bulls went to Chicago and lost 2-1.
Since Emil Forsberg made his last start on June 1, RBNY have two wins from 15 across all competitions, with just 16 goals scored in that span. They are, as we’ve said all along, a team that lacks match-winning quality, and I’m not sure there’s much else to say about them.
If Forsberg comes back healthy for the stretch run and the playoffs, maybe that changes. But it’s clear at this point it’ll have to be a carry job.
Chicago are technically still alive, just four points back of D.C. with five matches to go. But I remember when they were technically still alive this time last year, too, and how they followed up their big, season-prolonging win.
7. The hottest team in the East is in south Florida. The second-hottest team is in central Florida, as Orlando posted their second straight 3-0 win via a home dismantling of the Revs.
The Lions are now 7W-2L-1D in their past 10 regular-season games, with a +14 goal differential. Their per-90 chance creation is up more than 20% over this 10-game stretch, and their expected goal differential has jumped from -.10 to +.28 – essentially going from a bottom 10 team in the league to the top 10.
I will simply say again that the only real change was personnel, i.e. putting Martín Ojeda into the starting XI as the No. 10. There were no big tactical or formational changes or overhauls; it’s just a case of putting the best players in their best spots and letting them get down to business.
That was supposed to be the Revs’ blueprint, but here they are, dead last in the East, six points below the line with seven left to play (though, to be fair, they’ve got two games in hand on D.C. and Toronto).
6. Atlanta were at home, finally with their first-choice XI, against a Nashville side that’d lost eight straight. Here’s our Face of the Week:
The final was 2-0 ‘Yotes and it maybe wasn’t that close. Atlanta had nothing.
Nashville had a lot, including quality in both boxes (something they’d been lacking all year) en route to their first win under new manager B.J. Callaghan. There had been signs it was coming – they’ve improved a ton with their progressive play through midfield over the past few games, and have been getting into dangerous spots by using the ball in a way this team mostly hadn’t all year long. So when Alex Muyl opened the scoring in the fifth minute by finishing off a 13-pass sequence, it felt very well-earned.
Nashville are 14th in the East on 29 points. Three of their next four are at home. I can’t say I’m expecting them to make a run, but…
5. Also still technically alive: CF Montréal! They found themselves a 2-1 home win over tumbling Charlotte, and my god this would’ve been one of the goals of the season from Caden Clark had he buried that first volley:
I’m giving Nathan Saliba our Pass of the Week for that perfect chip. Montréal have just five wins in the past six months, but they’re only three points back with a game in hand.
Charlotte are now winless in five and have one win in their past eight. As they’ve tried to become more expansive, they have become significantly more vulnerable defensively because they’ve been stretched through midfield. This game was a perfect example, as both Montréal goal sequences started when they won second balls in the middle third and were able to build pretty easily through the ragged Crown lines into the attacking zone.
4. The Dynamo are getting scary:
They destroyed RSL on Saturday night, beating them by three goals for the second time in a month (it was a 3-0 demolition in Leagues Cup and a 4-1 final this weekend). That goal above came after a 26-pass build-up to get into the box; their second came after 11 passes; their third after 14. Then, when the opportunity presented itself, their fourth came on a simple long ball over the top, which Latif Blessing brought down with a perfect first touch, and then threaded Ezequiel Ponce through.
Ponce’s now got two goals in 403 regular-season minutes. That’s pretty good, though I do think they need him to be a little bit better than “pretty good” down the stretch if they’re going to climb into the top three (that’s very much in play after this result; I am less convinced second place is, even if LAFC have looked mortal the past three weeks) and then make noise in the playoffs.
“I’ve spoken about how it takes some players who move here from abroad time to adjust, but Ponce has been all over Europe, so the transition has been very quick for him,” head coach Ben Olsen said about his record-signing after the game. “Ponce is insatiable when it comes to information. He’s an open and selfless player, and he does a lot of work without the ball with a defensive pressure that is incredible. That hard work is a staple for us and for every player on the team. He has done a good job of that, and we just have to continue scoring more goals.”
Héctor Herrera came off with what looked like a hamstring injury just before halftime. Houston can survive without him, but they need him healthy in October.
RSL now have just one win in their past six, and are outside of the West’s top three for the first time since March. The remaining schedule, however, is kind. They have a chance to get right, build some momentum into the playoffs and put this ugly summer behind them.
A silver lining from this one: Diego Luna and new No. 10 Diogo Gonçalves showed a bit of chemistry out there. It wasn’t great by any stretch, but you could see them thinking through the dance steps together at times.
3. Colorado’s attack has gelled to the point where they don’t have to actually think together. Their movements are all second nature:
There’s a “get downhill and stay downhill” quality to this goal – where everybody pushes forward, takes small touches and then keeps moving forward into tiny little pockets of space – that’s become emblematic of who the Rapids are in attack, and why they were able to finish third in Leagues Cup. The suddenness with which they transition from possession to attacking penetration is probably their defining characteristic as a team, and certainly was in Saturday’s 2-1 win over a very good Portland side.
The Rapids leapfrogged RSL and are now third in the West. They’re not there by accident. Portland are in eighth, just a point ahead of Minnesota. That’s not an accident, either.
2. Also in that mix are the Whitecaps, who crushed a very bad and now, as mentioned at the top, officially eliminated San Jose side by 2-0 at BC Place on Saturday night.
It’s three straight shut-outs in regular-season play for Vancouver since Leagues Cup ended. They’re finding a way to survive without Brian White (still in concussion protocol) and Andrés Cubas, have added some quality in Stuart Armstrong (he got his debut goal), and have seen Pedro Vite turn the corner a little bit over the past two months after an anonymous first half of the season. Plus Ryan Gauld is still awesome.
They’re sixth in the West with a game in hand. Win it, and they’d jump up to third.
But the easy part of the schedule is done. Everything from here on out is the woodchipper, and I expect the ‘Caps to look like what they have been for most of their time under Vanni Sartini: a good and fun team that lacks the top-end quality to compete with the best when the stakes get raised.
1. And finally, the Sounders keep taking care of business (as long as they’re not playing LAFC). Sunday night’s lone game was a pretty ho-hum, 2-0 Seattle home win over visiting Sporting KC. Jackson Ragen got the first; Paul Rothrock got the second. Only some heroics from Tim Melia and some not-so-great finishing from Jordan Morris kept the hosts from finding a couple more. They are, nonetheless, 13W-5L-1D across all competitions since Morris was moved to the No. 9, and they finished the night fifth in the West (sixth on points per game).
I will say that, over the past 180 minutes, Cristian Roldan has probably played Brian Schmetzer into something of a selection dilemma. He’s been brilliant in central midfield, and getting another pure winger (Georgi Minoungou started; Pedro de la Vega came off the bench; both guys were useful) into the XI is going to be necessary if this team’s going to win multiple playoff rounds come October.
It would be hard to bench either Obed Vargas or João Paulo, but the simple fact is Roldan’s better than either of them right now. The best version of the Sounders has Roldan starting with one of those two guys, and Minoungou or de la Vega lined up on the wing opposite Rothrock.
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Publish date : 2024-09-15 15:08:00
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