August is typically the month when we get the first producer survey yield estimates from USDA, as well as yield projections from major private firms.
This yield data is gathered in different formats from producer surveys, crop tours and satellite technology. There is not necessarily a method that has proven more accurate than any other, as all methods have some strengths as well as some limitations. As usual, the one consistency being echoed by most crop experts is that the 2024 crop yields are likely to be highly variable and are very difficult to predict.
Some areas of the eastern and central Corn Belt have experienced excellent growing conditions this year, while portions of the upper Midwest such as the southern third of Minnesota were negatively impacted by flooding and excessive rainfall during June. Most of the crop information in these estimates was based on crop conditions in early-to-mid August, so any major changes in conditions after that time frame could alter final state or national yield numbers.
The statewide and national corn and soybean yield estimates in the USDA Crop Report that was released on Aug. 12, 2024, were based on crop conditions as of Aug. 1. The USDA report was based on a survey of over 15,000 crop producers from across the United States that was conducted by the National Ag Statistics Service (NASS). The next USDA Crop Report will be released on Sept. 12 and will be based on crop conditions as of Sept. 1. This report will include actual field survey data in the yield and production estimates.
Two of the main private firms that release crop yield and production estimates during August use different methods and technology to arrive at their projections. The “Pro Farmer Crop Tour” is quite well established and has been around for several decades. Pro Farmer Tour gathers “in-person” field yield data from the primary corn and soybean production areas in seven states during the third or fourth week of August, which is then adjusted for crop maturity and historical differences between tour data and final yield numbers. Yield adjustments are also made in states that have unique conditions in certain areas of a state, such as drought conditions, irrigation in Nebraska, and geographical differences in states like Minnesota.
For several years, DTN has conducted a “digital yield tour” of the primary corn and soybean production areas in the United States. DTN derives their yield estimates utilizing satellite imagery taken during the second week of August, which is then adjusted based on actual rainfall amounts and temperature data, as well as for the drought index. The DTN yield data will continue to be updated into September. DTN did not issue a national corn or soybean yield estimate in the August estimates.
Nationally, the Pro Farmer corn yield estimate was 181.1, compared to 183.1 bushels per acre in the Aug. 12 USDA Crop Report. The 2024 national corn yield projections from USDA and Pro Farmer both exceed the final 2023 record average U.S. corn yield of 177.3 bushels per acre. The 2024 national corn yield projections also compare to other national average U.S. corn yields of 173.3 bushels per acre in 2022, 177 bushels per acre in 2021, 172 bushels per acre in 2020, and 167.4 bushels per acre in 2019.
The national yield differences between the USDA corn yield estimate (183.1 bu./acre) and the Pro Farmer projection (181.1 bu./acre) may not seem significant; however, that could potentially represent a difference in the final total 2024 U.S. corn production level. Depending on U.S. and world corn demand, that yield difference could affect the U.S. corn supply, which in turn could impact grain market prices in the coming months.
The current difference between the corn yield estimates from USDA and Pro Farmer is two bushels per acre. Based on the USDA estimate of 82.7 million harvested acres of corn in the U.S. in 2024, that yield difference represents over 165 million bushels of corn. USDA is currently estimating the 2024-25 U.S. corn ending stocks at nearly 2.1 billion bushels, based on the USDA estimated yield of 183.1 bushels per acre. A national yield decline of two bushels per acre in 2024 would potentially reduce U.S. corn carryout levels by about 8%.
In many instances, there was not a lot of consistency in the state-by-state average corn yield estimates from the various sources. Some states had higher projected corn yields in the Aug. 12 USDA crop report compared to estimates released by the crop tours and digital surveys, while in other states the USDA projected yield trailed the private estimates. For example, USDA estimated the 2024 Minnesota corn yield at 185 bushels per acre and DTN was at 186.7 bushels per acre, compared to the estimate of 170 bushels per acre by Pro Farmer.
In South Dakota, the corn yield estimates were 162 bushels per acre by USDA and 166.7 bushels per acre by DTN, while Pro Farmer was at 156 bushels per acre. On the other hand, the private company corn yield projections for Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska were fairly close to the USDA yield estimates. Crop and weather conditions in the northern Corn Belt have been much more variable than in the eastern Corn Belt during the 2024 growing season.
NASS estimated the 2024 U.S. national average soybean yield at 53.3 bushels per acre in the Aug. 12 USDA Report, which compares to national soybean yield estimate of 54.9 bushels per acre by Pro Farmer. The USDA and Pro Farmer 2024 soybean yield estimates would far exceed the final 2023 national yield of 50.6 bushels per acre and the record national average soybean yield of 51.9 bushels per acre in 2016. Other recent national soybean average yields were 49.5 bushels per acre in 2022, 51.4 bushels per acre in 2021, 50.5 bushels per acre in 2020, and 47.4 bushels per acre in 2019.
The various state-by-state soybean yield projections in the northern Corn Belt showed less variation between the August USDA yield estimates and the 2024 yield projections by the private firms than existed with corn. However, the statewide soybean yield projections in the eastern Corn Belt showed more variation among the various estimates, which could be partially due to the different methodologies that are used to calculate yields and the drier weather pattern that have developed in portions of the region.
Based on the Aug. 19 USDA Crop Progress Report, 67% of the U.S. corn crop is “good-to-excellent,” which compares to late August crop ratings of 58% in 2023 and 55% in 2022. Only 11% of the U.S. corn crop was rated “poor-to-very poor.” The highest statewide “good-to-excellent” ratings were Missouri at 79%, Iowa at 77%, Illinois at 76%, Indiana at 73%, Nebraska at 72%, and South Dakota at 70%. Lower “good-to excellent” corn ratings were recorded in other Midwest states with Wisconsin at 64%, Minnesota and North Dakota at 61%, and Ohio at 55%. The lowest corn ratings were in Texas at 41% and Kansas at 45%. Most 2024 statewide corn ratings in the Midwest for mid-August exceeded comparable 2023 corn ratings, except in Ohio which had better ratings a year ago.
The weekly USDA crop ratings on Aug. 19 listed 68% of the soybean crop in the U.S. as “good-to-excellent,” which was well above the ratings of 59% in 2023 and 57% in 2022 at this point in the year. Many of the Midwest States with the largest soybean acreage were in the higher crop ratings categories. Iowa led the way at 77%, followed by Nebraska at 74%, Indiana at 72% and Illinois at 70%. The soybean “good-to-excellent” ratings in other States included Minnesota at 69%, South Dakota at 68%, Wisconsin at 62% North Dakota at 57%, and Ohio at 56%. All of the Midwest States in the primary soybean production area in the U.S., except Ohio, had higher “good-to-excellent” ratings in late August this year, as compared to 2023.
Areas of the Midwest that were not impacted by adverse weather earlier in the growing season and continue to receive frequent rainfall events during August could actually see a boost in final yield results. There could be some concern in Minnesota, northwest Iowa, North Dakota, and Wisconsin with getting the later planted crops and the replanted soybeans mature, especially if the first frost occurs in September.
Kent Thiesse is a Farm Management Analyst and writes the weekly “Focus on Ag” column. Contact him by phone at (507) 381-7960 or by email at [email protected].
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Publish date : 2024-08-28 23:37:00
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