Minnesota Republicans have a dream and it begins on the shores of Lake Minnetonka.
The GOP enters the 2024 election on the down side of a DFL trifecta. And while it is hoping to muscle its way into a House majority in an election where all 134 seats are on the ballot, perhaps the easiest way to grab some power comes in the picturesque communities of Excelsior, Deephaven, Wayzata, Tonka Bay and Mound.
A special election to fill out the term of former state Sen. Kelly Morrison, who stepped down to run for Congress, could flip the state Senate from DFL to R come November. One district’s voters will decide which party controls the Senate. While there are no plans for a special session between now and next January, should one be needed the Senate is currently tied 33-33. There is no mechanism to break ties like there is in the U.S. Senate, where the vice president casts the tie-breaking vote.
Morrison timed her resignation to assure that her replacement would be elected at the regular primary and general elections. The DFL did not want to have a special election in December that would have made an already expensive race even more so.
“It’s gonna get a lot of money,” Todd Rapp, a public affairs consultant and political analyst who is the president and CEO of Rapp Strategies, said of the general election. “It might be the first one to hit $3 million.” That isn’t just what the candidates raise. Most campaign money in the state comes from party organizations, interest groups and independent expenditure campaigns.
“It is winner take all, and in that environment anything can happen,” Rapp said. “The thing that makes it interesting is that for those two caucuses (the DFL and GOP Senate caucuses), it’s the only place to put money into so they’re gonna overspend.”
Since the campaign is for the remainder of Morrison’s term, the winner can be sworn in as soon as the general election is certified.
A three-person DFL primary Tuesday will decide who will face off against Kathleen Fowke, the 2022 GOP nominee and the only Republican running this year. In the DFL primary are Ann Johnson Stewart, Emily Reitan (pronounced ray-tan) and Kyle Jasper Meinan. Only Johnson Stewart and Reitan appear to have active primary campaigns.
But are the GOP hopes of winning the Senate a dream or a fantasy? The voting fundamentals of the 45th Senate district are DFL. Morrison won the seat in 2022 by more than 12 percentage points. The two House seats are split, with GOP Rep. Andrew Meyers representing 45a (where Morrison lost by 393 votes) and DFL Rep. Patty Acomb representing 45b (where Morrison won by 6,094 votes).
But the challenge for Republicans in the 45th becomes even more, well challenging, when looking at the top of the 2022 ballot where Tim Walz beat Scott Jensen by 16 percentage points. The DFL also won more votes in the races for secretary of state (+16.6), attorney general (+5.4) and auditor (+5.2).
Johnson Stewart might be the more familiar name outside the district, having served for two years in the state Senate from 2019 to 2021, both years in the minority caucus. She was on the capital investment and transportation committees. A result of the 2020 court-crafted redistricting of legislative district lines put her and Morrison in the same district. More of the district was Morrison’s former turf and Morrison was endorsed by the district DFL organization. Johnson Stewart dropped out.
She kept her signs, however, and announced her candidacy shortly after U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips said he wouldn’t run again and Morrison announced for Congress. There doesn’t appear to be much to separate her and Reitan on the issues, so Johnson Stewart said it’s about how hard the candidates work and who shows up to vote Tuesday. The party did not have an endorsement process for the special election, stating that the time period of the campaign was too compressed.
Johnson Stewart is a civil engineer who sold her business and has been completing some projects for the new owner and teaching. During an interview she was on her way to a presentation in an effort to get more people interested in working in sewage treatment.
“I was the first civil engineer to serve in the Minnesota Senate and I was the last,” she said. “I think we’re missing that expertise for how infrastructure is funded and constructed.” After leaving the Senate she said she worked to get local government public works officials more involved in the legislative construction budget process.
Does she feel any pressure knowing the DFL needs to hold district 45 to hold onto the Senate?
“Oh yeah, are you kidding?” she said. “The Senate is a tricky place. To put someone with experience, someone who can talk about getting back to work even before the first day is really important. It gives us a leg up.”
Reitan is making her first run for public office after a career in financial analysis and management including service on boards including Twin Cities R!SE and the Children’s Hospital of Minnesota Foundation. Just as Johnson Stewart says the Senate would benefit by having an engineer, Reitan says her skills as a chief finance officer might be just as unique.
“Our district is growing, becoming more diverse and we need to build communities where schools and businesses and families thrive together,” she said. “I can use my business skills and knowledge to work towards our growing district with the business community.”
“The difference isn’t in issues,” she said. “I would argue that my background has been broader. I’ve been involved in environmental work, women’s rights, LGBTQ+ issues. It’s more about approach.”
She said she has also been active in DFL politics and issues, helping what had been a GOP area trend toward the DFL.
“When the seat came up, and knowing how important it is, and given how much work I’d done, I have a good idea of how the district can be won,” Reitan said. “I don’t say that in a conceited way. We need to win, and if I can help do that I’m going to.
Other legislative primaries to watch
There are only 22 contested House primaries out of 268 potential races (GOP and DFL in 134 House districts). That’s about the same level of House competition — or lack of competition — over the last four cycles: 22 in 2022 and 2018, 23 in 2020.
61A: This is the Minneapolis seat being vacated by Rep. Frank Hornstein. Since there is not GOP candidate (and in this DFL-heavy district it likely wouldn’t matter), this district essentially will be decided in the primary, though a Green Party candidate, Toya Lopez, is running as a third-party challenger,
Isabel Rolfes is a House DFL legislative assistant; Will Stancil is a University of Minnesota researcher and Katie Jones is an engineer and environmentalist who ran for Minneapolis Ward 10 last election.
8A: The open seat created by DFL Rep. Liz Olson’s decision to step down has a primary between two Johnsons: Peter and Jordan. Mark McGrew is the sole Republican who filed. All three live in Duluth.
26A: This is the seat held since 1986 (with some changes from redistricting over the years) by Rep. Gene Pelowski, DFL-Winona. His decision not to run again opened up primaries in both parties. On the GOP side it’s S. James Doerr vs. Aaron Repinski. On the DFL side it’s Dwayne Voegeli vs. Sarah Kruger.
38A: Another DFL open seat that was filled by Rep. Michael Nelson of Brooklyn Park since 2003 has primaries on both sides. The Republicans are Yelena Kurdyumova and Brad Olson; the DFLers are Huldah Hiltsley and Wynfred Russell.
41A: In 2022, Republican Mark Wiens defeated DFLer Pat Driscoll by 128 votes. Wiens has now decided to run for Washington County commissioner, and this now one of just a handful of Races to Watch. The GOP has a primary between Grayson McNew and Wayne Johnson. The winner will face off against Lucia Wroblewski in what remains a true swing district along the St. Croix River.
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Publish date : 2024-08-12 04:26:00
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