Even though the NBA off-season is at a standstill, there are a few big dominoes that still need to fall. One of them is undoubtedly the future of Utah Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen, whose situation should be resolved by August 6th. He can begin to negotiate an extension by then and it would make the most sense for the Jazz to trade him before those extension talks begin.
However, an underrated sub-plot of the NBA offseason is the future of Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns is in the first year of a supermax deal that puts Minnesota $17 million dollars over the second apron. As such, Minnesota is likely going to be giving him away for relatively cheap value if they can find a deal that aids them in becoming a first-apron team in 2024 or 2025. This deal also needs to be one that does not significantly worsen their roster because Minnesota is in championship contention.
Earlier reports have suggested the Knicks might be interested in the big man’s services. Knicks insider CP The Franchise on Knicks Fan TV suggested this about New York’s interest in KAT on July 10:
“Think about this. We talked about all the moves that they made this offseason to get themselves some more wiggle room with the cap. They made the Shake Milton trade, they signed him, they put him in the Bridges trade. You have Brunson, who’s considering taking considerably less to sign an extension. They didn’t sign Julius Randle to an extension. They didn’t sign Julius to an extension. I’ll tell you this: they’re bigger fans of Karl-Anthony Towns.”
A lack of desire to break up the Villanova core the Knicks have built and the ever-shifting trade value of Julius Randle could make a deal difficult. Therefore, New York might not be the best candidate for a Towns trade.
The Atlanta Hawks have two big contracts on their hands in Clint Capela and DeAndre Hunter. Capela’s outsize salary of roughly $22.3 million dollars, his age and lack of positional flexibility or offensive upside make him an unattractive trade candidate. Hunter’s long-term contract with cap hits of roughly $21.7 million dollars, $23.3 million dollars and $25 million dollars over the next three seasons severly cut into the financial flexibility of most teams. Therefore, the only teams that can really trade for either player are those that are rebuilding or have readily movable contracts. They also cannot trade them for absolutely nothing in a two-team trade framework. The Hawks need to ensure a baseline level of competency because they lack control over their first-round picks in the 2025, 2026 and 2027 drafts.
The Brooklyn Nets happen to be a team that fits both criteria. Two of their wings, Cam Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith, are poor fits for the rebuilding team that the Nets want to have. Armed with their own picks over the next two years after trading with the Rockets for them, they are very interested in any deals that net them picks.
Factoring in the needs of these teams in very different situations, a three-team trade could make sense for everyone. Here is what that deal might look like:
It should be noted that this is just a speculative and fun exercise to see what kind of moves can be made, not what I think the Hawks should do or will do. That is all.
Hawks get: Dennis Schroder, Ziare Williams, Karl-Anthony Towns, 2025 1st round pick (top-20 protected by Brooklyn, via New York/Brooklyn), 2025 2nd round pick (via Miami/Brooklyn)
Nets get: Clint Capela, DeAndre Hunter, Onyeka Okongwu, 2026 1st round pick (via Minnesota), 2028 1st round pick (top-8 protected, via Minnesota), 2025 2nd round pick (via Minnesota/Atlanta), 2030 2nd round pick (via Atlanta)
Timberwolves get: Larry Nance Jr, Cameron Johnson, 2027 1st round pick (less favorable of MIL/NOP, via Atlanta)
Why the Hawks would do this deal: The Hawks have not had a high-level option at center since their Eastern Conference Finals run. Although Towns is not the defender Capela was at the time, he is one of the best big man shooters of all time. In Atlanta, his role would be as a catch-and-shoot option who would drive to the rim after recieving passes from Young. During the 2024 postseason, he showed his ability to hold up against offensive hubs with size, like Kevin Durant and Nikola Jokic, on defense. Between him and Jalen Johnson, the Hawks would have a legitimate defensive strategy against players like Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo. He can operate as a secondary or tertiary ball handler with Young and Johnson and gives the Hawks an opportunity to go five-out with a lineup of Young – Bogdanovic – Risacher – Johnson – Towns. Last season, he had a true shooting percentage of 62.5% while shooting 42% on five attempts a game from deep. Young has never played with a center that has the offensive utility of Towns and the possibilities of this “big three” are endless. Schroder is a nice backup point guard with some passing touch while Williams slots in as a depth wing. He’s quick, has some passing touch and could be a good reclamation project for Atlanta as a former lottery pick. The Hawks would also clear Capela and Hunter’s salaries from their cap sheets.
Why the Hawks would not do this deal: The prospect of Towns, Young and Johnson all being on deals upwards of $30 million dollars is very intimidating for the team’s long-term flexibility under the salary cap. If Towns is not the missing piece that fuels deep playoff runs for the Hawks, they are going to be stuck in the middle of the conference with a very expensive roster. It is a lot of risk to take on for a front office that does not have a great track record with high-risk, high-reward moves (see the initial Dejounte Murray trade). Towns is not a perfect player, either. His defense only took a massive leap after playing next to Rudy Gobert and a fully realized Naz Reid. There is a chance that he regresses back to his previous form on defense, which would be very problematic. He is not the best decision-maker with the ball in his hands, sometimes turning down the open three for an ill-advised drive to the basket. This trade could significantly handicap the Hawks just as much as it could push them to new heights.
Why the Nets would do this deal: They get two first-round picks and two interesting wings in DeAndre Hunter and Onyeka Okongwu. Since they have Nic Claxton at center, they can play Okongwu at the 4, who played well at that spot in limited minutes. Brooklyn can afford to experiment with the 6’8, 240 lb big and see if the 43% percentage he posted on corner threes is indicative of untapped shooting upside. He’s a solid passer, posting 2.1 assists per 40 possession and an assist percentage of 13.8%. With more opportunities, it’s not hard to envision him improving as a playmaker. Okongwu’s real offensive utility is inside the paint, where he made 73% of his shots between 0-4 feet. Capela can effectively back up Claxton while not hindering the Nets’ long-term cap space. His salary expires at the end of the year and can be traded at the deadline if needed. Hunter had a good shooting year (39% from three-point range on five attempts a game) and can be a useful 3&D wing on the roster. Most importantly, all of the players on the Nets fit their goal of being a competent basketball team that will still finish as one of the worst in the NBA. Brooklyn would also get back two first-round picks from the Timberwolves in exchange for Cam Johnson, which is a solid return.
Why the Nets would not do this deal: They would still be hard-capped at the first apron and need to trade a contract at the deadline to clear up space and dodge the tax. Salaries like Bogdan Bogdanovic and Dorian Finney-Smith can be readily moved, but those deals need to happen in order to keep Brooklyn from not being an expensive, flawed roster. Hunter is also not an ideal fit for a rebuilding team – he has three seasons remaining on a 4-year, $90 million dollar contract. Furthermore, he is also 26, meaning that he has likely reached his ceiling as a player barring an unexpected jump.
Why the Timberwolves would do this deal: They have an easy road to ducking the second apron by trading Larry Nance Jr at the deadline and move off of KAT’s contract. While this deal does not give them a 1-for-1 replacement for KAT, it does open up a bigger opportunity for Reid, the reigining Sixth Man of the Year. If they want to preserve Reid as a sixth man, they can play a lineup of Conley – Edwards – McDaniels – Johnson – Gobert. Johnson posted 13.4 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.4 assists per contest while shooting 44.6% from the field and 39.1% from three-point range on six attempts a game during last season. He would give their offense another threat that defenses need to account for, taking defensive attention off of Anthony Edwards. He’s a good perimeter defender and fits perfectly with the defensive infrastructure Minnesota has built. The Timberwolves would also only lose one pick in the deal as they gain a 2027 first-round pick from Atlanta after sending two of their own to Brooklyn. While the pick does not project to be particularly high (least favorable of Pelicans/Bucks), it gives them an asset to use in future deals.
Why the Timberwolves would not do this deal: The Johnson deal is likely the last high-impact move Minnesota would be able to make using their draft assets. Even though Johnson is a premier 3&D forward and is under contract for the next two seasons, the Timberwolves’ front office might not see him as the missing piece. They would also be reliant on a Larry Nance Jr deal coming to fruition in order to get under the 2nd apron.
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Publish date : 2024-07-27 16:22:49
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