Dec 24, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) runs after the catch as Minnesota Vikings cornerback Akayleb Evans (21) chases during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
We have reached the depths of the off-season, so that means it’s primetime for writers, content creators, and analysts alike to delve into the wide world of ranking and tier listing.
Today, based on their recent production and backed up with analytics and statistics, I give you my top 10 wide receivers in the NFL as we inch closer and closer to the 2024 NFL season. There is also a dash of projection going into these as well.
Dec 24, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) catches a touchdown pass from quarterback Nick Mullens (not pictured) as Detroit Lions cornerback Cameron Sutton (1) defends during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
It should be known that with the number of up-and-coming wide receivers putting up ridiculous statistics at a young age, older players who have declined in production (due to injury or not) will be penalized a bit in favor of the young stars of tomorrow.
The list will start at ten, so here are some honorable mentions that just missed the cut of my top 10 NFL wide receivers in no order:
D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans
Devonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
10. Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Jun 7, 2022; Thousand Oaks, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams receiver Cooper Kupp (10) catches the ball during minicamp at Cal Lutheran University. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
This pick is a bit contrary to my declaration of giving the young guys the nod over the aging and beaten-up veterans, seeing as this should probably be Puka Nacua here instead of his fellow Ram Cooper Kupp. However, to Nacua, I would say, “Do it again,” and that Kupp being here is a testament to just how exceptional of a wide receiver he is. Either way, the Rams are filthy rich at the wide receiver position.
Kupp was given grace here, especially as he has put up only 1,549 yards and 11 touchdowns in his 21 games spanning the last two seasons. Those aren’t exactly numbers to shrug at, but given that Kupp put up 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns on his way to winning the triple crown (leading the league in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns) and Super Bowl MVP in 2021, making him easily the best wide receiver to walk the planet at the time, it’s hard not to be disappointed.
Kupp has only played in 21 games of a possible 34 over the last two seasons, so he will receive some grace because of how ridiculous his 2021 was and that he was on pace for a 1,600-yard season before injury in 2022. You could put any of my honorable mentions in this spot, and I wouldn’t have a problem with it, though, especially Nacua.
9. Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
Dec 24, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (17) runs after a catch against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Another great being given grace with a bit of a recent down-swing, 2023 was a disappointing year for Adams, who we’ve been accustomed to having as a permanent resident in the top five wide receivers in the NFL.
With the rise of names yet to come on this list and the regression last season, this spot is less of a slight to Adams and more of a compliment to those ahead of him. It’s no secret that Davante Adams had to endure some abysmal quarterback play since he arrived in Las Vegas, and it showed especially last season.
2023 was the first time since 2017, that Adams played at least 14 games and accumulated less than 1,300 yards. He had three more receptions in 2023 than in 2022, yet put up 400 fewer yards and six fewer touchdowns.
His 103rec/1,144yd/8TD season is solid enough, but a far cry from his seemingly automatic 110rec/1450yd/14TD performance that we’re accustomed to. He’s another one I wouldn’t bat an eye at moving out of the top 10 in lieu of an honorable mention.
8. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown celebrates the 31-23 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC divisional round at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Jan. 21, 2024.
Someone I had last season as just on the outside-looking-in on the top 10 receivers, I predicted St. Brown would force his way into it, and that’s exactly what he did.
It might be a bit fair to call him a little bit of a “slant-boy” like we did to Michael Thomas all those years ago since Amon-Ra has an average-depth-of-target (8.0) that is dwarfed by the other receivers at this level. Either way, St. Brown has been absolutely undeniable so far in his very young NFL career.
While it’s funny to knock him for most of his damage being done within ten yards of the line of scrimmage, there’s no denying that he is an absolute demon against zone coverage when lined up against it. His 83.4% success rate against zone coverage (per Reception Perception) is absolutely elite, and his 91.2 PFF offense grade (fourth in the NFL) and 91.3 PFF receiving grade (third in the NFL) only support his argument.
St. Brown posted 119 receptions for 1,515 yards and ten touchdowns, numbers that are on track to go up even more.
7. Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
Jan 14, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) reacts after a play against the Seattle Seahawks in the first quarter during a wild card game at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
If you aren’t familiar with Brandon Aiyuk’s game, you might be confused about two things: why is this guy in the top 10, and why is he above Deebo Samuel?
Aiyuk hasn’t posted jaw-dropping numbers quite yet, but he is the perfect example of why you can’t just look at box scores to formulate your opinions. Even if you want to look at the box score, it’s still impressive given the context that he’s sharing touches with George Kittle, Christian McCaffery, and the aforementioned Deebo Samuel.
2023 saw Aiyuk post 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns on 75 receptions. That’s an average of 17.9 yards per reception, good for 2nd in the NFL last season. His PFF offense grade of 92.3 and receiving grade of 92.3 were both second in the NFL among wide receivers in 2023. His yards per route run of 3.01 was third in the NFL.
I’m a bit worried about the rumors circulating of Aiyuk being traded to either Washington or Pittsburgh later this offseason, two destinations not exactly known for providing fantastic situations for their receivers. Either way, he would still be a dominant separator; it’s just about whether the quarterback will get him the ball.
6. Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Nov 27, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (17) celebrates his touchdown reception during the first quarter against the Chicago Bears at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Another example of the box score not meaning everything, enter Garrett Wilson.
Wilson is another absolutely elite coverage beater, even more so than Aiyuk. His 78.6% success rate against man coverage is in the top 4% ever recorded by Reception Perception, and his 81.1% success rate against press coverage is in the top 7%. Not to mention, he beats double coverage 80.5% of the time. Absolutely ridiculous.
Also according to Reception Perception, Wilson posted the following success rates on route concepts:
Comeback: 100%
Screen: 100%
Curl: 90.5%
Slant: 90%
Dig: 82.6%
Out: 78.1%
Post: 72.7%
Corner: 72%
Flat: 68.8%
Nine: 62.1%
All others: 100%
That’s stuff you just can’t gather from box scores. Wilson posted a lowly 95 receptions for 1,042 yards and three touchdowns, but again, when assessing wide receivers, you have to give more weight to what he’s doing every single play and not just what the plumbers that were throwing to Wilson last year were doing. If you do that, you see that Garrett Wilson is one of the best in the NFL at just simply getting open, which is his entire job.
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Publish date : 2024-07-01 20:15:00
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