Vice President Kamala Harris is currently performing worse among Black voters in the key swing state of North Carolina than President Joe Biden did in the 2020 presidential election, according to a new poll.
The latest voter survey from Marist College said that whilst Harris outpaced Trump 86 percent to 13 percent among Black voters statewide, this was less than the 92 percent support from the demographic Biden achieved in 2020. Trump won the state that year by a margin of 1.34 percentage points.
According to a CNN 2020 exit poll, Trump received seven percent support from Black voters in North Carolina at the last election, suggesting he has gained some ground with the voter group in the last four years.
The presidential race in North Carolina remains on a knife’s edge. On Thursday, polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight had the two candidates separated by just 0.6 percentage points (Harris on 47.3 percent and Trump on 47.9 percent).
Courting this demographic could further either presidential hopeful’s chances – nearly a quarter (22.5 percent) of the state’s population of 10.4 million residents identified as either Black, or African American, or both, according to the 2020 census.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris campaign for comment via email.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the American Federation of Teachers’ 88th National Convention on July 25, 2024 in Houston, Texas. A new poll by Marist College found that Harris is currently performing worse among…
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the American Federation of Teachers’ 88th National Convention on July 25, 2024 in Houston, Texas. A new poll by Marist College found that Harris is currently performing worse among Black voters in the key swing state of North Carolina than President Joe Biden was during the 2020 presidential election.
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Securing the Tar Heel State could prove crucial for either presidential hopeful’s bid for the White House.
As 38 of the 50 states have voted for the same political party from 2000 to 2016, the winner is almost always decided by a handful of “swing states,” also known as “purple” or “battleground” states. This year’s election is likely to hinge on seven – one of which is North Carolina.
Aggregations of countrywide polls suggest the competition is also close on a national level.
FiveThirtyEight put Harris narrowly ahead of Trump by 48.4 to 45.8 as of early Thursday.
The most recent update to Nate Silver’s election poll averages on the Silver Bulletin blog also saw Harris slightly ahead at 49 percent, and Trump at 46.3 percent.
Meanwhile, RealClearPolling had Harris ahead of Trump, with 49.2 percent support, while the Republican had 47.1 percent support.
Polling averages are snapshots rather than forecasts. While they may indicate current voter sentiment toward the candidates, the race for the White House is far from over.
National polls measure the popular vote. A presidential contender can win this yet still lose the election if they fail to secure 270 out of the 538 Electoral College votes needed to secure victory. The number is based on each state’s delegates in the Senate and House of Representatives.
Some, but not all, aggregators will weigh the impact individual polls have on their averages based on how they perceive pollsters’ methodologies and biases.
It should also be noted that polls have a margin of error, often of at least few percentage points, and polls have underestimated Trump support historically, though pollsters now say this is better accounted for.
“Many pollsters today are using past vote [history] to correct for the Trump undercount,” Cliff Young, the president of Ipsos polling, previously told Newsweek.
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Publish date : 2024-09-26 05:16:00
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