Mississippi’s offense hasn’t been truly tested, and Kentucky is set to give them a culture shock.
Sep 26, 2024 • 16:32 ET
• 4 min read
It’s an SEC affair when the Mississippi Rebels welcome the Kentucky Wildcats to town.
This matchup is truly a strength-on-strength matchup for each team. The Wildcats’ defense has positioned itself as one of the nation’s best, while on the other hand, a Lane Kiffin offense needs no introduction.
My Kentucky vs. Mississippi predictions expect UK’s defense to outclass the Rebels’ attack. Read on for my college football picks for September 28.
Kentucky vs Mississippi prediction
My best bet
Mississippi team total Under 34.5 (+100 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
There are fewer misleading final scores than South Carolina’s whooping of Kentucky. The offense is bad and isn’t a ton better than it showed. However, it was a highly unfair reflection of what this defense is.
SC scored 31 points despite a 28% success rate on offense, a negative EPA per play that placed them in the Bottom 23% of the sport, and only 166 passing yards.
What set the Gamecocks up the most was an average field position of their own 40, multiple interceptions, and a fumble. I think the offensive showing by the Gamecocks has caused a bit of overreaction to this number, and I’m taking advantage of that. Remember, this is the same defense that held Georgia to just 13 points a week later.
The cornerstone of this handicap is what the Wildcats have done this season regarding havoc. No team in college football has created more havoc so far this year, and few have the resume of having played Georgia and South Carolina. Kentucky has, and it’s been able to disrupt those offenses with TFLs, sacks, and batted passes.
In its game against Georgia, Kentucky created a 13% havoc rate, which is firmly in the elite category of the sport. In addition to that, the Wildcats held Georgia to a negative EPA on the ground.
Mind you, this came against what many believe is the best offensive line in the SEC or at least safely ahead of the Mississippi one. It’s a unit with two bonafide NFL talents, Tate Ratledge and Earnest Greene. If Kentucky can force that type of disruption against the Georgia offensive line, it begs the question, what can it do to a Rebel one largely untested?
Here are the defensive units Ole Miss has faced this year and put up insane numbers against: Georgia Southern, Furman, Middle Tennessee, and Wake Forest. The four nonpower four units the Rebels have faced are far below what they’ll see Saturday.
But the lone power four one? Beyond being the worst defense in the ACC by virtually any stat, they’ve created next to no issues in the opponent’s backfield. On the season, Wake Forest ranks last in the ACC in tackles for a loss, last in havoc, and, additionally, it ranks second to last in sacks.
This Kentucky defensive unit is one of the best in the country, and asking it to go from facing some of the worst defenses in the sport to eclipsing 34 points against UK is a task even too tall for a Kiffin offense.
Kentucky vs Mississippi same-game parlay (SGP)
Mississippi team total Under 34.5
Jaxson Dart anytime touchdown
Kentucky moneyline
Because of the issues I anticipate Kentucky causing in the Rebels’ backfield, it stands to reason Dart will have to rely on his scrambling ability in the red zone. Last week broke the streak of Dart’s touchdown run. This week, he may be forced into it.
I’m finishing things with a shocker: Kentucky moneyline. I made this price closer to +450 or around a 16% chance. In so many ways, this is a perfect storm for Kentucky.
The Wildcats are getting a Mississippi team with a rash of injuries at 11 a.m. local time, and they’re getting them in their first conference test.
Two seasons ago, Kentucky came within a play of winning in this same game. Head Coach Mark Stoops has schemed back-to-back games with more offensive yards than the Rebels and I like the value of the number.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kentucky vs Mississippi odds
Kentucky vs Mississippi live odds
Kentucky vs Mississippi opening odds
Kentucky vs. Mississippi spread: Mississippi -17.5
Kentucky vs. Mississippi moneyline: Kentucky +600, Mississippi -900
Kentucky vs. Mississippi Over/Under: 52.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Kentucky vs Mississippi spread and Over/Under analysis
This series has been dominated by the Rebels lately, winning three straight over Kentucky.
After an embarrassing loss to South Carolina, Kentucky has rebounded from an ATS perspective and covered the spread in back-to-back games.
There’s been no real edge on the total in this series all time, with it an even 3-3 to the Over. However, two of the last three meetings have gone Over the total. One of those features the same head coaching matchup from this season.
Kentucky has begun the season as a tremendous Under team, with three of its four games going that direction.
Kentucky vs Mississippi betting trend to know
Kentucky has hit the first quarter game total Under in their last three away games (+3.00 Units / 80% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Kentucky vs Mississippi.
Kentucky vs Mississippi game info
Location:
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
Date:
Saturday, 9-28, 2024
Kickoff:
12:00 p.m. ET
TV:
ABC
Kentucky vs Mississippi latest injuries
Kentucky vs Mississippi weather
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Publish date : 2024-09-26 10:32:00
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