Things seem closer than ever when it comes to both the 2024 college football season and For The Win’s picks against the spread this year. We thought Week 4’s games would lead to some separation in our standings, and the opposite happened instead.
Going into Week 5 college football picks against the spread, we’ve got a three-way tie for first with second and third ready to take the lead with any missed projection. Three of our experts have 24-20 records so far this season, which perhaps isn’t a huge surprise after we had four consensus picks last week. Full disclosure: We were wrong for three of those consensus picks, but we’d all likely make the same choices again.
Regardless, onward!
Here are our 10 picks against the spread for Week 5. Tail responsibly, and best of luck out there.
Name
Last Week
YTD
Michelle Martinelli
4-6
24-20
Mitchell Northam
5-5
24-20
Christian D’Andrea
5-5
24-20
Blake Schuster
5-5
23-21
Tyler Nettuno
4-6
22-22
All odds via BetMGM
Virginia Tech at No. 7 Miami, Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
(Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)
Opening Line: Miami -7.5
Blake Schuster: Miami -19.5
This line is less about a Virginia Tech falling off a cliff to begin the season than it is seeing how the Canes respond to a short week after blowing out South Florida in a supposed trap game. The reality is Miami might only need three or four explosive plays to cover this one.
Mitchell Northam: Virginia Tech +19.5
There are a lot of folks already penciling-in Miami as the ACC champs, and for good reason as the Canes look competent as a whole and Cam Ward looks like the best quarterback in the league. But also, has Miami really been tested yet? Is its 4-0 start to good to be true? The answers are no and maybe, and I think Miami is due for some good old-fashioned ACC chaos.
Christian D’Andrea: Miami -19.5
Tech got lit up by Diego Pavia. Now it’s gotta deal with Cam Ward???
Michelle Martinelli: Miami -19.5
Cam Ward was my preseason Heisman Trophy pick, and he’s on fire and leading the No. 2 offense in the FBS right now. I’m not picking against the Hurricanes until they give me a reason not to.
Tyler Nettuno: Miami -19.5
This spread is scarily large, and if the Hokies had showed me just a bit more through four weeks, I’d pick them to cover. Alas, I just don’t see how they keep this one close for four quarters.
Kentucky at No. 6 Ole Miss, Saturday, noon ET on ABC
(Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports)
Opening Line: Ole Miss -15.5
Blake Schuster: Ole Miss -17.5
Speaking of teams that haven’t been tested, Ole Miss is doing everything right (so far) by beating up on cupcake opponents. Kentucky shouldn’t be too much of a problem, either, especially in Oxford.
Mitchell Northam: Ole Miss -17.5
Ole Miss has beaten everyone they have played so far by at least 34 points and we haven’t really been shown a compelling case for why Kenutcky might keep this game close.
Christian D’Andrea: Kentucky +17.5
South Carolina game aside, the Wildcats are adept at dragging you into the muck and making pretty teams ugly.
Michelle Martinelli: Kentucky +17.5
Ole Miss is rocking the best offense and one of the best defenses on paper right now, but if you look at who it’s played so far, those stats are a little less impressive. Ole Miss has yet to be tested, and the Wildcats might not be headed for an upset but they can keep it interesting.
Tyler Nettuno: Ole Miss -17.5
Despite how they played against Georgia on defense, this Wildcats offense stinks. Ole Miss is much more explosive than UGA and shouldn’t have as many issues pulling away in this game.
No. 20 Oklahoma State at No. 23 Kansas State, Saturday, noon ET on ESPN
(Sarah Phipps-USA TODAY Sports)
Opening Line: Kansas State -5.5
Blake Schuster: Kansas State -4.5
The continued disappearance of Ollie Gordon has me very worried about the Cowboys’ ability to muddy up games and control the clock. Now you want me to trust Mike Gundy’s team on the road? Pass.
Mitchell Northam: Oklahoma State +4.5
I think the Cowboys are just the better team. Both of these squads will be motivated to bounce back after tough losses.
Christian D’Andrea: Kansas State -4.5
I’d like this line a lot more at three points, but in a battle between two not-quite-trustable teams, I’ll take the one playing at home.
Michelle Martinelli: Kansas State -4.5
I picked OkState last week and got burned when the Cowboys couldn’t hold off a Cam Rising-less Utah team. Not sure what’s going on here, but Ollie Gordon was supposed to be having a more prolific season, so going with the home team.
Tyler Nettuno: Kansas State -4.5
Both of these teams look pretty disappointing at the moment, but I still have more confidence in the Wildcats given Oklahoma State’s baffling offensive issues.
Maryland at Indiana, Saturday, noon ET on Big Ten Network
(Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports)
Opening Line: Indiana -4.5
Blake Schuster: Indiana -7
No one told Curt Cignetti that this was supposed to be a multi-year rebuild at Indiana. The Hoosiers have a stud QB in Kurtis Rourke and Maryland is in for a dogfight.
Mitchell Northam:
Christian D’Andrea: Maryland +7
It’s still September, which means we’re still in the part of the calendar where Maryland over-performs. Besides, Hoosiers ain’t played nobody.
Michelle Martinelli: Maryland +7
Indiana wins, but Maryland will give the Hoosiers their first close call of the season in a game that has Big Ten Sickos written all over it.
Tyler Nettuno: Indiana -7
Are you ready to talk to your children about a 5-0 Indiana?
No. 15 Louisville at No. 16 Notre Dame, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on Peacock
(Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images)
Opening Line: Notre Dame -9.5
Blake Schuster: Louisville +6
Easily one of the most fascinating games this week. Notre Dame’s playoff hopes fully hinge on beating Louisville, but the Charmin-soft Fighting Irish schedule requires the Cardinals to win out against their remaining ranked opponents in order for Notre Dame to get some quality transitive wins. A blowout for either team here is the only disaster scenario. Give me the points.
Mitchell Northam: Louisville +6
The Cardinals eased some of my doubts by convincingly beating (and covering against) a decent Georgia Tech team. Meanwhile, I just keep thinking about Notre Dame as the team that lost to Northern Illinois at home.
Christian D’Andrea: Notre Dame -6
First road game of the year for the Cardinals and it’s against a Notre Dame team already in must-win mode. It’s still September, by the way.
Michelle Martinelli: Louisville +6
Went back and forth on this a lot, but I don’t see this Notre Dame team being anything spectacular this season — Northern Illinois upset or not. I don’t know if the Cardinals will win, but I don’t see a blowout happening here.
Tyler Nettuno: Louisville +6
The Cardinals remain fairly untested, but we’ve seen enough from Notre Dame to have some serious questions about the passing game. I’ll roll the dice on Louisville being as good as advertised and getting a massive road win.
No. 21 Oklahoma at Auburn, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
(Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports)
Opening Line: Oklahoma -2.5
Blake Schuster: Oklahoma -2.5
Hugh Freeze is running out of both players to blame and busses to run over them.
Mitchell Northam: Oklahoma -2.5
The Sooners bounce back from that loss to the Vols, and Hugh Freeze’s seat thaws a bit more.
Christian D’Andrea: Oklahoma -2.5
Oh, we really think Auburn and Oklahoma are just about equal on a neutral field? Auburn, the team averaging two interceptions per game??
Michelle Martinelli: Oklahoma -2.5
The Sooners lost to a very good Tennessee team last week, and while their offense wasn’t particularly productive, I have more confidence in it than the entirety of Auburn this year.
Tyler Nettuno: Oklahoma -2.5
The Sooners didn’t look great last week, but really? Auburn’s anemic offense makes OU look like Tennessee, and Brent Venables and co. should be able to get back on track here.
No. 19 Illinois at No. 9 Penn State, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC
(Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports)
Opening Line: Penn State -17.5
Blake Schuster: Illinois +17.5
This is typically the game James Franklin loses that sends everyone around Penn State into “fire the coach” mode. I don’t think that happens this year, but it’ll Illinois can make this uncomfortable enough for Nittany Lions fans to at least let those thoughts crop up.
Mitchell Northam: Illinois +17.5
I don’t think Bert and his boys are going to stay undefeated after this week, but I also have a hard time seeing them lose by three possessions.
Christian D’Andrea: Illinois +17.5
Bret Bielema only exists to ruin things. About 40 percent of the time it’s his own fan base, but still.
Michelle Martinelli: Illinois +17.5
Listen, Illinois isn’t going to storm into Happy Valley and blow everyone’s minds or anything. But a ranked Big Ten matchup that Penn State definitely needs to win means the Nittany Lions will barely make it out alive.
Tyler Nettuno: Illinois +17.5
Penn State hasn’t been good enough to justify a line like this against a good, ranked opponent. I doubt Illinois has the juice to win this game outright, but its style should keep the margin to fewer than three scores.
North Carolina at Duke, Saturday, 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2
(Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images)
Opening Line: North Carolina -3.5
Blake Schuster: North Carolina +2.5
Mack Brown ain’t going out like this.
Mitchell Northam: Duke -2.5
Is Manny Diaz about to send Mack Brown into retirement?
Christian D’Andrea: Duke -2.5
HATE, HATE, HATE, HATE, HATE.
Michelle Martinelli: Duke -2.5
I am uncomfortable having to make a pick for this game. Zero confidence in either team all around, but a touch less in North Carolina after last week’s embarrassment.
Tyler Nettuno: Duke -2.5
Neither of these teams has impressed me much through four weeks, but only one of them gave up 70 points to James Madison at home last week.
No. 2 Georgia at No. 4 Alabama, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
(Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports)
Opening Line: Georgia -4.5
Blake Schuster: Alabama +1.5
The Crimson Tide are a home underdog for the first time in 17 years. You don’t tempt fate in Alabama. You don’t crown a new SEC dynasty until you’re absolutely sure the old one is dead. Jalen Milroe Heisman SZN is here.
Mitchell Northam: Georgia -1.5
New Bama beats the old Bama at Bama.
Christian D’Andrea: Alabama +1.5
Home underdog Bama? With Jalen Milroe looking like a full-stop stud?
Michelle Martinelli: Alabama +1.5
I have my reservations about this Crimson Tide team, but Jalen Milroe seems to be improving each week. And with both teams coming off a bye, I have a feeling Kalen DeBoer has some moves that may surprise the Bulldogs.
Tyler Nettuno: Georgia -1.5
I’m still a bit skeptical about this Alabama team, and it’s hard for me to imagine Kalen DeBoer scores a win over Kirby Smart in his first try, even at home.
Washington State at No. 25 Boise State, Saturday, 10 p.m. ET on FS1
(Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports)
Opening Line: Boise State -6
Blake Schuster: Boise State -7.5
Tune in because Ashton Jeanty is a legitimate Heisman candidate at tailback. Stay because Wazzu QB John Mateer runs the ball with no regard for human life.
Mitchell Northam: Washington State +7.5
For playoff hopes, this is sort of a must-win game for both teams. The offenses are going to put up a lot of points, and this might be one of those last-team-to-score-wins kind of games.
Christian D’Andrea: Boise State -7.5
*Checks 10pm ET kickoff*
Oh, god, yes, that’s the stuff.
Michelle Martinelli: Boise State -7.5
Both offenses are putting up more than 500 yards per game, but Washington State’s defense was like a sieve last week while Boise State is a playoff contender. Broncos all the way.
Tyler Nettuno: Boise State -7.5
Washington State is a fun team and a great story, but this team let San Jose State score at will last week. It could be a long night against Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos, which look like the clear G5 playoff favorite at the moment.
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Publish date : 2024-09-26 00:30:00
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