In Michigan’s battleground Senate race, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is significantly outraising her GOP opponent, former Representative Mike Rogers, as polls show Slotkin outperforming Kamala Harris in the critical swing state.
Slotkin and Rogers are vying to replace retiring Senator Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat, in the politically divided state that has gone back and forth between Democrats and Republicans in recent elections. Both parties are investing heavily in the race, which could play a role in determining the Senate majority come January.
The race is viewed as highly competitive, but Slotkin has built up a strong war chest, handily outraising Rogers, according to campaign finance data.
Slotkin has raised $23.8 million, while Rogers has raised $5.3 million in total, according to the nonprofit Open Secrets. She has spent more than $15 million, compared to nearly $2.8 million spent by Rogers as of July 17, when candidates filed their pre-primary financial disclosures with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Former Representative Mike Rogers speaks in Howell, Michigan on August 20, 2024. Representative Elissa Slotkin speaks during the Democratic National Convention (DNC) on August 22, 2024 in Chicago. Slotkin is outraising Rogers in Michigan’s Senate…
Former Representative Mike Rogers speaks in Howell, Michigan on August 20, 2024. Representative Elissa Slotkin speaks during the Democratic National Convention (DNC) on August 22, 2024 in Chicago. Slotkin is outraising Rogers in Michigan’s Senate race.
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She had more than $8.7 million in cash on hand, while Rogers had about $2.5 million in his coffers at that point, according to FEC data.
Slotkin pulled big numbers in the second quarter of 2024, raising $6.5 million, a fundraising total described as a “monster haul” by The Detroit News. Rogers, meanwhile, raised $2.5 million, according to the newspaper.
Republican PAC Great Lakes Conservative Fun announced earlier in September they would be spending nearly $4 million on Michigan Senate ads focused on China, in an effort to give Rogers a boost, The Detroit News reported.
Slotkin’s strong fundraising is helping her take a slight polling lead over Rogers, but the race is still one of the most competitive on the Senate map. The Cook Political Report classifies Michigan as one of two toss-ups ahead of November.
Ken Kollman, professor of political science at the University of Michigan, told Newsweek that both candidates are focusing on economic issues, particularly on jobs in the auto industry and preventing jobs from being moved overseas, with advertisements focusing on China and manufacturing.
“Slotkin needs some crossover voters who might choose Trump in order to maintain and build on a lead. They are both campaigning on protections against jobs being sent overseas,” he said.
Slotkin currently represents a Lansing-based congressional district. She was first elected in the 2018 “Blue Wave,” which carried Democrats to victory in suburban districts across the country.
A former CIA agent and Pentagon official, Slotkin has cast herself as a moderate Democrat who is willing to break from her party. She consistently outperformed other Democrats in her district and was reelected in 2020 despite Trump carrying her district the same year. The district was redrawn to be slightly Democratic but remains a battleground.
Slotkin’s emphasis on her centrism “appears to be playing well,” Kollman said.
“She is well known in the state, and she is coming across as moderate, despite attempts by Republican ads to communicate otherwise,” he said.
Rogers served in Congress years before Slotkin, representing a Lansing-based district from 2001 until his retirement in 2015. He is a former FBI special agent and former chair of the House Intelligence Committee who has received the endorsement of Trump.
Slotkin is seeking to win over independents or moderate Republicans, those who may back Trump in the presidential race but are willing to support Democrats downballot, while Rogers will need to earn support from suburban women who back Harris, Kollman said.
“Both will probably do well to distance themselves somewhat from their respective presidential candidates at the top of their parties’ tickets,” he said. “But, and this is critically important, Slotkin will have a much better chance of winning if turnout is high in Michigan for Harris.”
Slotkin will need strong turnout in areas like Detroit, a Democratic stronghold, to win in November, he said.
Newsweek reached out to the Slotkin and Rogers campaigns for comment via email.
A Redfield & Wilton Strategies/The Telegraph poll, conducted among 993 likely voters from September 16 to September 19, showed Slotkin with a 9-point lead over Rogers (46 percent to 37 percent).
A Suffolk University/USA Today poll, conducted among 500 likely voters from September 16 to September 18, showed Slotkin up two points (45 percent to 43 percent). Elsewhere, an Emerson College/The Hill survey, conducted among 875 likely voters from September 15 to September 18, showed Slotkin leading by five points (47 percent to 42 percent).
Slotkin’s polls have been stronger than Harris’ in the state, suggesting she could run ahead of the top of the ticket.
The Redfield & Wilton and Emerson polls both had Harris up one point over Trump (46 percent to 45 percent and 50 percent to 49 percent, respectively). The Suffolk University/USA Today poll showed Harris up nearly three points (48 percent to 45 percent).
Michigan remains one of the nation’s most important swing states, but a Republican hasn’t won a Senate race there since 1994.
In 2020, President Biden won Michigan by nerly 3 points after the state went for Trump by 0.3 points in 2016. Democrats also had a strong showing in the state in 2022, when Governor Gretchen Whitmer won reelection by a wide margin. Democrats, including Slotkin, also won three of the state’s most competitive Congressional elections.
Former President Barack Obama easily carried Michigan in both his 2008 and 2012 runs, but rightward shifts among the state’s rural voters bolstered Trump and other Republicans in the state.
At the same time, Democrats have made gains in the Detroit suburbs and the western areas of the state near Grand Rapids.
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Publish date : 2024-09-25 08:27:00
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