Trump vs Harris: Iowa Poll 2024 shows the presidential race tightening
A new Iowa Poll reveals Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by 4 points, a significant improvement from President Biden’s previous 18-point deficit.
More Iowans than not approve of how U.S. Sens. Joni Ernst and Chuck Grassley handle their jobs, a new Iowa Poll finds.Grassley is regaining ground with Iowans who identify as evangelical, at 69%, rising from 61% in June and 57% in February.
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More Iowans than not continue to approve of the work Sens. Joni Ernst and Chuck Grassley are doing in Congress, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
Almost half of Iowans approve of how Grassley and Ernst do their jobs, with 48% of Iowans approving of Grassley and 47% approving of Ernst.
Iowans’ approval of Grassley and Ernst remains steady since the last Iowa Poll in June, up 1 percentage point for Grassley and down 1 percentage point for Ernst.
Slightly more Iowans disapprove of Grassley’s job performance, at 43%, compared to Ernst’s, at 41%. Ernst’s disapproval rating increases 2 percentage points since the June poll; Grassley’s increases by a point.
Nine percent of Iowans are unsure about the job Grassley is doing, and 11% are unsure of Ernst’s.
The Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., surveyed 811 Iowans from Sept. 8-11. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Approval rises for both Chuck Grassley, Joni Ernst among Republicans
Iowa Republicans’ approval of both Grassley’s and Ernst’s job performance has risen since the last Iowa Poll in June.
Now, 80% of Republicans approve of Grassley, up from 74% in June and 70% in a February poll. Thirteen percent of Republicans disapprove; and 7% are unsure. His approval from Republican voters sits just below what it was in March 2023, when it reached 81%.
Poll participant Daniel Wegg, a 37-year-old Republican from Mason City, said he approves of Grassley because of his pro-police values.
“That goes 100% the same with Gov. (Kim) Reynolds, who does a great job of backing us and giving the support we need and supporting funding for us as well,” Wegg, a deputy sheriff, said. “I think I have no complaints whatsoever as far as the viewpoints on policing.”
Ernst’s approval from Republicans jumps from 70% in June to 76% in the latest Iowa Poll. Fifteen percent of Republicans disapprove of the job she’s doing, and 9% are unsure. She saw a 66% approval from Iowa Republicans in the February Iowa Poll.
Wegg said he thinks Ernst is a good leader in Congress for Iowans.
“She has good policies that are conservative, that match my values in terms of like closing the border and her viewpoints on abortion,” he said.
Both senators voted against legislation in 2022 that would have legalized abortion nationally.
Meanwhile, 81% of Democrats disapprove of the job Grassley is doing, 14% approve and 5% are unsure. For Ernst, 75% disapprove, 15% approve and 10% are unsure.
Poll respondent Julianne Scheskie, a 58-year-old Democrat from Davenport, doesn’t approve of the senators.
As a physician’s assistant, Scheskie said she thinks Grassley and Ernst don’t do enough for women’s health and abortion-rights legislation.
“Being a health care provider, Roe v. Wade is way more than abortions,” Scheskie said. “It is a health care decision, and I am aware of that more than Chuck Grassley. They will not listen to women or health care providers in general.”
Grassley reclaims support from evangelicals
Grassley continues to rebound from a loss of approval from evangelicals, an influential voter bloc in Iowa.
Sixty-nine percent of Iowa evangelicals now approve of Grassley’s job performance compared with 61% in June. He had an even lower rating from evangelicals in February, when 57% approved.
Iowa independent poll respondent John Benson, a 68-year-old from Evansdale, said he approves of how Grassley and Ernst are handling their jobs, specifically their pro-farmer and conservative values.
But Benson said, in general, he’s skeptical of federal lawmakers and thinks they care only about collecting money from supporters to seek reelection.
“I lean to the conservative, but other than that, to tell you the truth, the way Washington is, it seems like they don’t do anything anymore,” said Benson, a retired carpenter. “I’m a Christian, and I know that in the end, God’s going to work things out.”
Almost half of Iowa independents approve of Ernst, at 49%; 38% disapprove; and 13% are not sure.
Similarly, 48% of independents approve of Grassley, 40% disapprove and 12% are not sure.
More Iowans view Ernst, Grassley favorably than unfavorably
More than half of Iowans view Grassley favorably, 51%, up from his 49% favorable rating in June and 46% in February. Forty percent of Iowans view him unfavorably, the same as in June.
For Ernst, 48% of Iowans view her favorably, a 1 percentage point decrease from June. Her share of unfavorable views holds steady from June at 39%.
Poll participant Lanny Hustedt, a 70-year-old longtime Republican from Galva, said the Senate needs more lawmakers like Grassley.
“In the past, he has always kind of been a watchdog, and I always liked that,” he said. “I don’t follow him as much now as to what he passes, but he was a watchdog and getting on whistleblowers and stuff like that. I like that.”
Hustedt, who is retired, said he wouldn’t likely vote for Grassley if he ran again due to his age. Grassley turned 91 years old this month, extending his own record as the oldest lawmaker currently serving in Congress.
“It’s enough. We’ve got to get some new blood in there,” Hustedt said. “You got to turn it over here once in a while. I know there’s been a couple senators, Sen. Byrd from West Virginia, and a couple other places, they were in wheelchairs, rolling them in and out of there.”
But Grassley and Ernst are being productive in Congress, Hustedt said.
“There’s no doubt there’s a terrible amount of waste going on in the government,” he said.
Sabine Martin covers politics for the Register. She can be reached by email at [email protected] or by phone at (515) 284-8132. Follow her on X at @sabinefmartin.
About the Iowa Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted Sept. 8-11, 2024, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 811 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent American Community Survey estimates.
Questions based on the sample of 811 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit and, on digital platforms, links to originating content on The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.
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