The Bottom Line
I have talked for several days now about how this month is trending to be one of the driest Septembers on record for New Jersey. After reviewing some numbers, I think we can take that a step further: This could become our driest single calendar month in over 15 years. February 2009 was the last time NJ recorded a statewide average of less than an inch of rain.
We do have one or two more rounds of showers coming up. But it will hardly make a dent in our growing rainfall deficit. Drought and wildfire concerns continue to spiral. And now, we would love to see those fall allergens temporarily washed out of the air.
New Jersey’s weather will remain unsettled and blah through Wednesday, with October-ish temperatures too. A surprising warmup kicks in Thursday, although we will keep clouds and shower chances.
One big wrinkle in the late-week forecast is the development of Potential Tropical Cyclone #9, likely to become a tropical storm on Tuesday. If you hear of a storm called Helene, that’s the one we are watching here.
Tuesday
Monday turned out to be New Jersey’s coolest day since mid-May. And by the numbers, Tuesday will be about the same.
We are starting Tuesday morning with a blanket of thick clouds and temperatures near 60 degrees. Highs Tuesday afternoon will only reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees — still running about 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
It will generally be a cloudy day, although you may catch a peek of sun by late afternoon. It will also be a mainly dry day, with just a few sprinkles — you can safely skip the umbrella.
Tuesday will be mainly dry across New Jersey, but still quite cloudy. (Accuweather)Tuesday will be mainly dry across New Jersey, but still quite cloudy. (Accuweather)
The Jersey Shore is doing better, after numerous rounds of coastal flooding since last week. The Barnegat Bay and Delaware Bay in particular are still rather full, so a couple more rounds of minor category flooding are expected at high tide Tuesday and Wednesday morning.
The Jersey Shore still faces a couple more rounds of spotty minor tidal flooding Tuesday into Wednesday morning, although with dangerous rip currents and rough surf. (Accuweather)The Jersey Shore still faces a couple more rounds of spotty minor tidal flooding Tuesday into Wednesday morning, although with dangerous rip currents and rough surf. (Accuweather)
A high risk of dangerous rip currents continues for the Jersey Shore.
JERSEY SHORE REPORT: Tuesday 9/24
Tuesday night stays mostly cloudy and quiet. Low temperatures will only dip a few degrees, into the lower 60s.
Wednesday
Wednesday will qualify as a “blah” weather day, with lots of clouds and the return of showers.
The morning hours look dry. But then spotty showers come back into play Wednesday afternoon through evening. The farther north and west you are, the better your chances of getting wet. However, I think rainfall totals all stay below a quarter-inch.
Spotty showers return on Wednesday, with up to a quarter-inch of total rainfall to the north and west. (Accuweather)Spotty showers return on Wednesday, with up to a quarter-inch of total rainfall to the north and west. (Accuweather)
High temperatures will only reach about 65 to 70 degrees.
Thursday
There are some changes to our weather coming on Thursday.
First of all, it is going to turn surprisingly warm and humid, as a new air mass bubbles up from the south. High temperatures will shoot close to 80 degrees for all but far northern and coastal New Jersey.
It will still be mostly cloudy, hopefully with some late-day peeks of sun. And forecast models are showing a few showers around the midday and late evening hours. So worth mentioning, but clearly not a washout.
The end of the week turns warmer, although rain chances depend on the extent of rain over the southeastern United States. (Accuweather)The end of the week turns warmer, although rain chances depend on the extent of rain over the southeastern United States. (Accuweather)Friday & Beyond
The late-week forecast depends largely on the storm track of the storm system currently known as Potential Tropical Cyclone #9. (I have no doubt it will become Tropical Storm Helene soon.)
The latest forecast track of Potential Tropical Cyclone #9, likely making landfall along Florida’s Gulf Coast as a powerful hurricane later this week. (Accuweather)The latest forecast track of Potential Tropical Cyclone #9, likely making landfall along Florida’s Gulf Coast as a powerful hurricane later this week. (Accuweather)
After a landfall near the “corner” of Florida’s Gulf Coast on Thursday, the storm is forecast to push north and west. Still generally away from New Jersey, although not as markedly far as in previous outlooks. So now there is a chance for some clouds, tropical moisture, and showers to come into play late this week. Especially in South Jersey, between Friday and Saturday morning. That is not a slam dunk, just a possibility we will watch carefully.
Otherwise, I think we will see partly sunny skies and pleasant weather through the weekend. And a return to more seasonable temperatures. Mid 70s on Friday, lower 70s for Saturday and Sunday.
No soaking rain in sight. No frost in sight either.
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Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.
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Publish date : 2024-09-24 01:04:00
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