BATON ROUGE, La. (BRPROUD) — The tropics remain active as we progress through September as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is watching two areas for tropical development over the next week. One area is Invest 97L in the Caribbean, which will move into the Gulf of Mexico this week and the other area is a tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa.
We are watching the Caribbean disturbance very closely as a tropical storm is likely as it will affect a portion of the Gulf Coast later this week. As of now, there are no immediate tropical threats for Louisiana; however, there remains uncertainty on any potential track or intensity. Gulf Coast residents from Louisiana to Florida should keep an eye on the forecast into this week.
Invest 97L
A large area of disorganized shower and storm activity exists over the western and northwestern Caribbean. Over this region, a broad low-pressure area should develop over the next day or so as the disturbance moves to the north.
Over the next several days with more favorable conditions of warm waters and lower wind shear, a tropical depression or storm is likely to form as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.
There is a medium chance (40%) for tropical development over the next two days and a high chance (80%) over the next seven days.
There remains some uncertainty on potential track and intensity as that will highly depend on exactly when and where a center of circulation forms as there is not one present yet for model runs to latch on to. Once that happens and the Hurricane Hunters begin collecting data from their flights, confidence in the potential evolution of this system will increase and the picture will become clearer.
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Currently, a large portion of computer model guidance is moving a system into the eastern Gulf, which means the risk is increasing for the northern and eastern Gulf Coasts from Louisiana to the Panhandle of Florida and even down the peninsula.
It is important for those all along the Gulf Coast to remain vigilant and tuned in to the forecasts over this next week. It is also a good idea to have your hurricane kits stocked and ready to go as we continue through hurricane season.
African Tropical Wave
A tropical wave is expected to emerge from the coast of Africa early next week. Some gradual development is possible with a medium chance, 40%, over the next seven days where a tropical depression may be possible as it moves to the west over the Central Atlantic.
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Publish date : 2024-09-22 11:09:00
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