Philadelphia has delivered the majority of its votes to Democratic presidential candidates for decades, and that won’t change in November.
Vice President Kamala Harris has a commanding 63-point lead over former President Donald Trump, according to a Philadelphia Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll published Thursday.
The city is in many ways fueling a rebound for the Democratic nominee, who is performing significantly better than President Joe Biden was in May before he dropped out of the race and endorsed her, according to the poll conducted by phone from Sept. 11 through 16following the first debate between Harris and Trump.
Still, there is some nuance to Harris’ support in the city — a relatively high number of voters still feel like they don’t know enough about her — and there are even some potential red flags for her campaign as it tries to drive turnout in Philadelphia over the next six weeks before Election Day.
Here are some takeaways from the poll that stood out to us.
In Philadelphia, Harris is performing much better than Biden
Philadelphia voters appear to be much more enthusiastic about Harris than they were about Biden in May. At that time, Biden was struggling in Pennsylvania, even with his base — 54% of likely Philadelphia voters said they would vote for him. Today, 79% of likely voters in the city said they plan to cast their ballots for Harris, an improvement of more than 20 percentage points.
Harris has also slightly eclipsed Biden’s performance in Philadelphia compared with around this time four years ago. According to an October 2020 New York Times/Siena College poll, Biden was then at 75% among city voters — 4 percentage points behind where Harris stands in the poll.
In addition, Harris’ overwhelming lead over Trump appears to be more than Philadelphians disapproving of the former president. They also seem to like Harris more than they did four years ago.
Among likely voters in the city, 77% have a favorable opinion of Harris, compared with 67% in 2020. And voters appear to be more enthusiastic about her now. The number of respondents from Philadelphia who said they have a “very favorable” view of the vice president is 11 percentage points higher than it was four years ago.
There’s some nuance, though. Nearly a third of likely voters said this month that Harris can be described as “extreme” — meaning there are some voters who think that and intend to vote for her anyway — and 35% said they feel they need to learn more about her. (More than 80% said Trump is extreme.)
But there are potential red flags for turnout
Running up the score in Pennsylvania’s largest city is a key priority for the Harris campaign, which sees the state as a must-win. Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans in Philly, so there’s a larger universe of persuadable voters for Harris than for Trump.
But turnout has sagged in the city in recent years compared with the rest of the state, especially in lower-income neighborhoods, and there are some indications that enthusiasm to vote is lowest in those areas this year. Nearly 80% of respondents from the wealthier neighborhoods in Center City and University City said they are “almost certain” they will vote, compared with 60% from North Philadelphia and 64% from West Philadelphia.
There appears to be an age-related enthusiasm gap
Young voters in Philadelphia strongly prefer Harris to Trump, and at a rate that’s slightly higher than older voters. But it’s people over age 45 who are actually most enthusiastic about voting.
According to the survey, about seven in 10 likely voters who are older than 45 said they are “very enthusiastic” about voting. But fewer than five in 10 respondents under 45 said the same.
» READ MORE: Why some young voters in deep blue Philadelphia are backing Trump
Young voters are a historically fickle group, and older voters tend to cast ballots far more consistently. The gap here could provide an opening for both campaigns to make inroads with their base voters who are on the younger side, but the campaigns and parties must ensure these voters actually vote.
City residents are down on the economy, and they trust Harris more to handle it
Only a quarter of likely Philadelphia voters said the economy is in good condition, a figure that should raise alarm for Democrats as voters nationally and statewideconsider Trump to be stronger on the economy.
But that’s not the case in deep-blue Philly, where three-quarters of those polled voted for Biden four years ago. According to the poll, 72% of likely votersin Philadelphiatrust Harris more than Trump to handle the economy, representing Harris’ whopping 49-point edge on the issue over the former president.
Philadelphians are locked in
City residents seem to be embracing their status as potential difference-makers in a critical swing state. Nearly 90% of likely voters surveyed said they watched or heard about the Harris-Trump debate, including 69% who watched it live.
Viewers from Philadelphia and Pittsburgh tuned into the debate at the highest rates in the country, according to Nielsen ratings data that showed almost half of the possible viewing audiences in the metro areas tuned in. (The universe of potential viewers is significantly larger than the number of people who are considered to be likely voters.)
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Publish date : 2024-09-19 22:00:00
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