The New York Mets (85-69) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (92-62) to Citi Field Saturday for the 3rd of their 4-game series. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 7-4
The Mets opened the series with a 10-6 win Thursday then dropped the second game 12-2 Friday. They have won 4 of their last 5 games and have tallied at least double figures in 3 of their last 4. New York is 44-35 at home this season and 80-74 against the spread (ATS). It sits 2nd in the NL East.
The Phillies got back to their winning ways Friday after losing 2 straight games. They lost 2 of 3 to the Milwaukee Brewers in their series before facing New York. Philadelphia is 40-36 on the road this season and 7-77 ATS. It sits atop the competitive NL East.
Phillies at Mets projected starters
LHP Ranger Suarez vs. LHP Sean Manaea
Suarez (12-7, 3.13 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 143 2/3 innings.
Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 6-2 road loss to the Milwaukee Brewers Monday
2024 away stats: 7-5, 2.78 ERA (77 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 13 starts
Career vs. Mets: 4-3, 3.51 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 in 15 appearances (8 starts)
Manaea (11-5, 3.26 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 171 innings.
Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 2-1 home win over the Washington Nationals Monday
2024 home stats: 5-3, 3.74 ERA (86 2/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 in 15 starts
Career vs. Phillies: 1-2, 5.68 ERA (19 IP, 12 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in 5 appearances (3 starts)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Phillies at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Mets -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+165) | Mets +1.5 (-200)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Phillies at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Phillies 3
Moneyline
BET METS (-115).
The Mets sit in the top half of the league following a loss with a 38-30 record. New York is 3-1 over its last 4 losses and has tallied 32 runs over its last 4 games, so it has the bats to be able to get on base against a solid pitcher in Suarez.
The Mets have won Manaea’s last 7 starts as well. The Phillies have struggled as of late and may have some fatigue as the season drags on and their playoff spot is secured. That said, they re 2-3 over their last 5.
Take METS (-115).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s no good value here. The Phillies are too risky as a run-line favorite, and the Mets aren’t worth taking here as a run-line underdog. Avoid this play.
Over/Under
BET OVER 7.5 (+100).
The Phillies have gone Over in 2 straight games and are 4-3-1 O/U in their last 8. Philadelphia has scored at least 5 runs in 3 of its last 4 games and are 4-1-1 O/U in Suarez’s last 6 starts.
The Mets have gone Over in 4 straight games and have allowed 18 runs in their last 2 combined. They are 7-2 O/U in their last 9 and 78-71-5 O/U on the season. Back OVER 7.5 (+100).
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Publish date : 2024-09-21 05:20:00
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