Free Press sports writer Tony Garcia breaks down Michigan football’s 2024 Big Ten opener and Week 4 matchup vs. No. 12 Southern Cal on Saturday in Ann Arbor:
Fast facts
Matchup: No. 17 Michigan (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten) vs. No. 12 USC (2-0, 0-0).
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. Saturday; Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor.
TV/radio: CBS; WXYT-FM (97.1), WTKA-AM (1050).
Line: Trojans by 5½.
Michigan edge rusher Josaiah Stewart (0) tackles Fresno State running back Malik Sherrod (2) during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024.
Availability report
Michigan: Out: S Rod Moore. Questionable: TE Colston Loveland (upper body). Probable: QB Jack Tuttle.
USC: Questionable: LB Mason Cobb, TE Walter Matthews.
Scouting report
When Michigan has the ball: The Wolverines have opted to make a significant change, benching quarterback Davis Warren in favor of Alex Orji after the senior turned the ball over six times in the team’s first three games. Barring injury, this game will be all Orji, which will change what the U-M attack looks like. The 6-foot-3, 235-pound athletic junior has run 31 times for 181 yards and three TDs in his career and attempted just seven passes (completing four for 20 yards with two touchdowns); although head coach Sherrone Moore insists he can throw, job No. 1 will be avoiding turnovers.
Michigan quarterback Alex Orji (10) hands the ball to Michigan running back Kalel Mullings (20) during the first half against Fresno State at Michigan Stadium at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024.
The attack could look different this week, with potential sets featuring multiple running backs, multiple tight ends, H-backs or some combination of all of those. In particular, look for Michigan to establish the run game with Kalel Mullings, who is averaging 7.5 yards per carry, and Donovan Edwards. U-M could be in trouble offensively if star tight end Colston Loveland is out. He leads all Wolverines in receptions (19) and receiving yards (187) but had to leave last week’s game with an injury. Michigan will have to contend with a USC defense that’s allowed just 10 points per game and has made notable tackling strides — one reason the Trojans rank 100 spots better overall after switching coordinators, from Alex Grinch to D’Anton Lynn. Anthony Lucas is the “game wrecker” Moore has talked about multiple times, but don’t discount Bear Alexander or linebacker Eric Gentry, either.
“For us to be balanced, we gotta possess it,” Moore said earlier this week. ” I think the run game has got to set up the pass game, the play action, all those things to make us successful.”
When USC has the ball: Even though USC had to contend with LSU in Week 1, the Trojans still boast one of the most statistically potent offenses in the country. USC is tied for No. 16 in total offense (495.5 yards per game) and No. 27 in scoring offense (37.5 points per game) despite losing QB Caleb Williams, a former Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall selection in April’s NFL draft in downtown Detroit.
USC loves to spread the ball around. There are 12 different Trojans with multiple receptions, led by tight end Lake McRee, with nine catches for 137 yards, but the most dangerous talent is wide receiver Zachariah Branch. The Trojans don’t just run the sophomore on go routes, but like to line him up in the slot and scheme him open across formations, something head coach Lincoln Riley does exceptionally well. The U-M defense, which ranks No. 54 in total defense (304.3 yards per game) and No. 57 in scoring (19.7 points per game), has been emphasizing its return to the “four pillars” on defense, with a particular focus on effort and angles while tackling and pre-snap communication to ensure everybody has proper alignment.
“Lincoln Riley’s been doing this for a long time,” Michigan defensive backs coach LaMar Morgan said. “You always see him on the sideline, he has the smallest call sheet, but it’s a lot of variances that he can do. I think what he does really good is get the ball in his playmakers’ hands. He knows he can see whatever coverage you’re doing. He knows what he needs to get to. When you change it, he’ll go back to it. He runs repeat plays. I just think they’re doing a really good job of spreading the ball around.”
Know the foe
Miller time: The man responsible for spreading the ball around is quarterback Miller Moss. The 6-foot-1, 205-pound junior has impressed to begin his career, completing 48 of 66 passes (72.7%) for 607 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions this season. The advanced numbers are equally as impressive. According to Pro Football Focus, Moss’ passing grade of 90.8 is No. 5 in the nation among quarterbacks with at least 25 attempts, and both of his touchdowns came when he was blitzed. Moss has completed 61.5% of his passes when defenses send an extra man and is an impressive 10-for-14 when pressure gets in his face.
“He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the country,” Morgan said Wednesday. “Seriously. I think if you watch his tape, you see what he does, the placement — he’s on his back foot getting hit, and the ball is on the money. I just think everybody that plays him this year will see a quarterback that is ready for his challenge. (He) has been prepared. I think he’s one of the best players on their offense without a doubt.”
Not just a runner: Running back Woody Marks, a transfer from Mississippi State, has helped unlock the USC offense. Not only is he a big body who runs behind his pads and falls forward — he had nearly 1,900 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns in four seasons with the Bulldogs — but his skills in the passing game are key. Marks has caught at least one pass in an absurd 47 consecutive games and throughout his career has 220 receptions for 1,271 yards (both of which would be all-time running back records at Michigan) and five receiving touchdowns. U-M defensive coordinator Wink Martindale likes to run a lot of man coverage, which could mean linebackers Ernest Hausmann or Jaishawn Barham will have to prove they can handle their own in pass coverage.
Riley’s rules: Since 2018, three of the seven Heisman winners have quarterbacked Riley offenses: Baker Mayfield (2018) and Kyler Murray (2019) at Oklahoma, and Williams (2022) at USC. Much like Texas offensive guru Steve Sarkisian, Riley is known for his offenses that are able to find a weakness and exploit it. This year, the goal has been to spread defenses out wide and make individual players make plays in space.
Tony Garcia’s two cents
Michigan defensive coordinator Wink Martindale walks the sideline during the game against Fresno State at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024.
Keep away: What’s the best way to shut down such a high powered attack? Keep it on the sideline. The Wolverines were a ball-control offense during their 2021-23 romp, doing a good job of keeping the ball away from opponents and their offenses on the sideline. Michigan’s time of possession is actually almost identical — U-M had the ball 32:14 per game last year and is at 32:21 this year — but turnovers have been brutal. If Michigan is able to cut down on those, then the Wolverines will have the script they want.
Third downs: One of the keys of ball control is third-down success and Michigan hasn’t been up to its usual standard. The Wolverines are No. 39 in converting third downs, having moved the sticks on 16 of 35 attempts (45.7%), while USC is No. 35 in the nation, having converted 9 of 19 chances (47.4%). The main difference is on defense. Michigan ranks No. 100 in the country in getting off the field on third down (allowing a 41.2% conversion rate) while USC is No. 31 (29.2% conversion rate).
Prediction
It’s rare to have so much unknown in Week 4, but that’s what happens when there’s a major quarterback switch. It could go a few ways. Perhaps Orji unlocks the run element, it complements the defense perfectly and Michigan has found a new formula. Or, perhaps there’s a reason Orji wasn’t the starter originally and it shows. Or maybe there are just flashes, but not enough for a full game. In any case, USC just has too much talent and too solid of a scheme. The pick: USC 27, U-M 16.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan football scouting report, prediction vs USC in Big Ten debut
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Publish date : 2024-09-20 02:05:00
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