What to know about Ruben Gallego, Kari Lake in the US Senate race
U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego and former TV broadcaster Kari Lake are vying for Arizona’s seat in the U.S. Senate. Learn more about the November race.
The Republic
With less than two months left in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego is maintaining the steady polling advantage over Republican Kari Lake that he has held for most of the contest.
Gallego held a 6 percentage point lead over Lake in a poll released Thursday by Emerson College for The Hill, a nonpartisan Washington, D.C., political news organization.
He has led in 17 of the 18 polls released publicly since the beginning of August and tracked by FiveThirtyEight.com, a politics website. The one other poll showed a tie.
In that span, Gallego’s average lead was 6 percentage points, though it has ranged from as little as 2 points in a poll for the conservative Club for Growth Action to as much as 15 points in a poll for Fox News.
The lone tie came in a poll for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Another site that tracks polling, Real Clear Politics, gives Gallego a 4 percentage point lead over Lake based on an average of the last five polls taken in the race.
Where do political prognosticators land on Lake vs. Gallego?
Three nonpartisan political prognosticating organizations all give Gallego the current edge as well.
Inside Elections rates the race “tilt Democratic.”
Sabato’s Crystal Ball scores it as “leans Democratic.”
The Cook Political Report rates it as “lean Democratic.”
Want to make a wager?
The political forecast betting markets also give Gallego the nod as well.
Polymarket, which claims to be the biggest wagering market in the world, gives the Arizona Democrat an 84% chance of winning the race.
PredictIt, an online wager market created by Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, shows the price of betting on the Democrat in Arizona as more than triple that of the Republican.
Election 2024: Here are the Arizona candidates running for US Senate
What else should voters know?
Arizona Democrats have won three straight Senate races beginning in 2018. That streak snapped a 30-year elective drought that included nine straight Republican wins.
Since U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., won her seat in 2018 as a Democrat, the party has won by about 2 percentage points each time.
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Publish date : 2024-09-20 03:31:00
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