DURHAM — Vice President Kamala Harris now leads former President Donald Trump by 11 points in New Hampshire according to a new poll from the UNH Survey Center following the presidential debate on Sept. 10.
In the poll, 54% of likely voters in the state said they would vote for Harris if the election were held today, while 43% said they would vote for Trump.
This is a jump from the UNH August poll that found Harris leading by 7 points. This is due to consolidating support among Democrats, the poll said: 98% of New Hampshire Democrats and 99% of self-described progressives, liberals, and socialists support Harris. Trump garners the support of 88% of Republicans, 92% of self-described conservatives, and 79% of libertarians. Just 31% of moderates say they support Trump.
It is also a wider lead than the 8 points found by a poll from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center, taken the Friday following the debate.
The poll revealed Granite State residents are increasingly expecting Harris to win the election: 49% think Harris is most likely to win the 2024 presidential race, compared to 36% for Trump. The gap has widened since August, when 46% thought Harris most likely to win and 42% thought Trump.
Harris also leads in favorability, with 48% finding her favorable and 46% unfavorable, compared to 39% to 57% for Trump.
Nearly 70% of respondents said they watched all or part of the presidential debate. Among those people as well as those who paid close attention to news stories about it afterwards, 60% rated Harris’ performance as good or very good. 22% rated Trump’s performance that way.
Election integrity in New Hampshire
On Sept. 12, Gov. Chris Sununu signed a strict new voter ID law that requires photo identification to vote without exceptions, eliminating the current law that allows affidavits, and documentary evidence of US citizenship for first-time voters to register. It will go into effect after the November election.
The poll showed that New Hampshire voters are split on how seriously they view voter fraud as a problem in the country: 45% believe it is a very or somewhat serious problem in the United States, and 53% think it is not too serious or not at all serious.
Only 24% believe that voter fraud is a very or somewhat serious problem in New Hampshire specifically. However, this issue is divided along party lines: 46% of Republicans believe it is a serious problem in New Hampshire, versus 3% of Democrats.
Fifty-three percent of Republicans believe fraudulent use of mail-in or absentee ballots occurs frequently in the state, and 41% believe that people from other states voting in New Hampshire occurs frequently.
The Special Committee on Voter Confidence, formed by Secretary of State David Scanlan, concluded that the results of New Hampshire elections are accurate and there is no evidence of widespread voter fraud. Sununu has also said that elections in New Hampshire are well run and secure.
The poll is based on surveys of 1,803 New Hampshire residents from Sept. 12-16. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.3%.
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Publish date : 2024-09-18 09:01:00
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