Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris is closing the gap with former President Donald Trump in Iowa, with new polling showing her down by just 4 points in the red-leaning state.
Trump, the GOP’s presidential nominee, handily won Iowa in 2016 by nearly 10 points, and again in 2020 by more than 8 points. A June poll in Iowa showed President Joe Biden, who had seen his approval rating hit historic lows, trailing Trump by a whopping 18 points.
With Biden’s unprecedented decision to bow out of the race and endorse his vice president in late July, Democrats have seen dramatic swings in the polls. While the race remains close, Harris leads in many national polls while swing state polls show her narrowly ahead, tied or only slightly behind Trump. Polls have shown her closing the gap with Trump, particularly compared with Biden, in several conservative states.
Now, new polling published Sunday morning by Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Harris with 43 percent compared to Trump’s 47 percent. The margin of error is 3.8 points and the survey polled 656 likely voters from September 8 to 11.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns via email for comment on Sunday morning.
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris shake hands as they debate for the first time on September 10 in Philadelphia. A new Iowa poll released on Sunday shows Harris down by just…
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris shake hands as they debate for the first time on September 10 in Philadelphia. A new Iowa poll released on Sunday shows Harris down by just 4 points in the red-leaning state.
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Former Democratic President Barack Obama won Iowa in 2008 and 2012, but the state has been largely viewed as solidly Republican since Trump’s victory there in 2016 and 2020. The Cook Political Report currently rates the presidential race in Iowa as “solidly” Republican. However, the new polling suggests the Midwestern state might be in play.
“I wouldn’t say 4 points is comfortable [for Trump],” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. who lead the Iowa poll, told Des Moines Register. “The race has tightened significantly.”
Selzer said the new survey results “signal a change in the mood of the electorate” in Iowa.
In 2016, Selzer was described as “the best pollster in politics” by news and polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight, which is now operated by ABC News.
The new poll also showed independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with the support of 6 percent of Iowa’s likely voters and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver with 1 percent. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race last month and endorsed Trump. Meanwhile, an additional 1 percent said they would support someone else or were not sure.
Polls Tighten in Other Conservative States
Relatedly, a poll released last week by Alaska Survey Research showed Harris only narrowly behind Trump in the Northwestern state. The Alaska poll, which was conducted from September 11 to 12, showed the Democrat down by 5 points with likely voters. Harris had the support of 42 percent of respondents whereas Trump had the backing of 47 percent.
The GOP has won Alaska in every presidential election since 1964, carrying the state by comfortable double-digit margins in recent cycles. Trump’s margin did shrink in Alaska between 2016 and 2020. In his first election against Hillary Clinton, he carried the state by nearly 15 points, but that went down to a lead of 10 points when he was up against Biden.
A recent poll by Emerson College for The Hill showed Harris down by just 3 points against Trump in Texas. The former president was supported by 51 percent compared to the vice president’s 48 percent. Comparatively, the most recent polls for Biden versus Trump from June and July showed the Democratic presidential trailing the Republican by 9 to 11 points, according to data compiled by FiveThirtyEight.
What National and Swing State Polling Shows
Nationally, Harris appears to be narrowly ahead of Trump. Pollster Nate Silver’s polling average shows the vice president with 48.3 percent support compared to the former president’s 46.2 percent, as of Saturday. FiveThirtyEight’s average on Sunday showed Harris with 48 percent and Trump with 45.4 percent—a narrow lead of 2.6 points for the Democrat.
In the critical swing states, Harris narrowly leads Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, according to Silver’s average. Meanwhile, Trump leads in Georgia and Arizona, with the candidates tied in North Carolina and Nevada.
Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has Harris up by slim margins in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump is narrowly ahead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, while the site shows the candidates tied in Nevada.
Update 9/15/24 at 9:58 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information and context.
Update 9/15/24 at 11:50 a.m. ET: Additional information was added.
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Publish date : 2024-09-15 09:09:00
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