There may be more on the line in this SEC showdown than just a conference win, as Billy Napier appears to be fighting to keep his job. Find out why our college football expert believes the Gators will do just enough to help Napier have at least one more week in charge.
Sep 14, 2024 • 12:04 ET
• 4 min read
Week 3 could bring us a final fork in the road for the Billy Napier era as the Florida Head Coach welcomes Texas A&M to town this afternoon.
After a rough two years and an opening-week loss to Miami (FL), there is a strong belief that Napier could be coaching for his job against the Aggies, but my Texas A&M vs. Florida predictions have him living to fight another week.
Find out why we’re backing the home side in my college football picks for Saturday, September 14.
Texas A&M vs Florida prediction
My best bet
Florida +3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Since we first wrote about this game earlier this week, the number has moved in our direction. Which is obviously a good sign. We recommended this at 4.5 but still play the current 3.5 number, as there’s not much of a tangible difference between the two numbers.
My view remains the same as it did earlier this week. People are looking at this spot as a last-ride saloon for Billy Napier. They are also seeing a team that has renewed energy with a quarterback in the mix who has recently shown some true star power. In the Swamp? Limited film on a potential superstar QB? Desperate spot? I have to take Florida here with my best bet of them on the spread.
Five-star freshman DJ Lagway started last week in Florida’s win over Samford instead of Graham Mertz, who failed to clear concussion protocol in time. He was impressive. He made Florida much more vertical with his big arm and broke the freshman QB passing record for the Gators with 456 yards through the game. As one Florida writer put it, “he made more big-time throws in one game than Mertz has made in his career at Florida”. He is what gives them hope to stay in this game, and that’s the overwhelming reason why I believe in the Gators in this spot.
Texas A&M’s defense has been okay to start the season, but it still looks vulnerable when you pull up the film. How you view the Aggies defense depends on what you think of Notre Dame, which scored just 14 points against Northern Illinois last weekend. I don’t think much of them. Especially when you consider back-to-back games from Riley Leonard, where he hasn’t even been close to cracking 200 passing yards and just threw two interceptions to the MAC team. Despite his underwhelming play, he could still post a 43% success rate against A&M on the road. Could a true freshman making his second career start at home be better? I believe so.
The key item here remains who will start at QB for Florida. But you get the sense it’s Lagway. Nappier was coy with the media earlier this week, stating that both QBs would play, and while that may be true, it’s hard to rationalize how you wouldn’t at least start with the player who showed such a promising skillset last week. I’ll call his bluff. I’m backing on Nappier’s back-against-the-wall spot to force him to row with the freshman and for him to respond, leading Florida to a cover and a win when they are more desperate than ever.
Texas A&M vs Florida same-game parlay (SGP)
Florida +3.5
Conner Weigman Under 249.5 passing yards
Elijah Badger Over 69.5 receiving yards
We’re pairing two bets with our best bet for a nice same-game parlay. Both of these are closely related to the items discussed above.
The first? Conner Weigman is under 249.5 passing. It’s not the Gators’ pass defense, which is vulnerable. It’s that I doubt Weigman’s ability to pass this number. He’s yet to surpass this number this season, and with the advantages the Aggies will have on the ground, I’m doubtful he’ll be asked to do much in such a hostile environment.
Wrapping up things is Elijah Badger Over 69 receiving yards. It’s a guessing game about who the primary target for Legway will be, but Badger is a good option. He has the pedigree. Badger was one of the more productive receivers a season ago, with 65 catches for just over 750 yards. That was despite poor QB play, too. Last week, he took off, highlighted by a 77-yard touchdown catch. This A&M secondary has yet to be challenged vertically, and for my money, Badger is the best deep-ball threat.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas A&M vs Florida odds
Texas A&M vs Florida live odds
Texas A&M vs Florida opening odds
Spread: Texas A&M -3.5 | Florida +3.5
Moneyline: Texas A&M -175 | Florida +145
Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Texas A&M vs Florida spread and Over/Under analysis
These two teams have played six times since their first meeting in 1962 and have split them an even 3-3.
Texas A&M has been on an impossibly rough run regarding ATS. They’ve covered just once in their last ten games, including two failed covers to start this season.
Florida has been a little better. The Gators are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten games.
What’s also been quite consistent with Florida is the total going Over in its games. Eight of the last ten times that Florida has taken the field, we’ve seen the total go in that direction.
Texas A&M vs Florida betting trend to know
[Stat]. Find more college football betting trends for Texas A&M vs Florida.
Texas A&M vs Florida game info
Location:
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Date:
Saturday, 9-14, 2024
Kickoff:
3:30 p.m. ET
TV:
ABC
Texas A&M vs Florida latest injuries
Texas A&M vs Florida weather
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