Wisconsin improved to 2-0 on the season with a 27-13 win over South Dakota on Saturday.
The win was the Badgers’ second in a similar fashion: moments of dominance and a comfortable-looking final score, but an overall closer game than everyone expected. Those two performances have come against a low-level MAC team in Western Michigan, and South Dakota from the FCS.
Related: Updated game-by-game predictions for Wisconsin football after Week 2 win over South Dakota
That reality has many questioning Wisconsin’s long-term outlook. The team is not alone in that reality, as the first two weeks of the college football season have seen nearly every top 25 team struggle at times, or lose outright.
Wisconsin’s current place in the sport will be tested this weekend when No. 4 Alabama visits Madison.
For the Badgers to pull the program-defining upset, they will need complete efforts on both sides of the football.
One big focus will inevitably be Phil Longo’s offense. The unit has shown flashes, including a dominant first half against South Dakota. But those strong stretches have been followed by struggles. The group’s overall performance has been mostly inconsistent.
That state of affairs is seen in where the unit ranks nationally in key statistics. For the Badgers to upset the Crimson Tide, many of these numbers will have to dramatically improve:
To see where Wisconsin’s defense ranks nationally in key statistics, click here.
Scoring Offense: No. 87
Aug 30, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Chez Mellusi (1) rushes for a touchdown during the second quarter against the Western Michigan Broncos at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Points Per Game: 27.5
Wisconsin’s point totals would work for later games against Iowa and Nebraska. But those outputs against FCS competition are not overly impressive.
Passing Offense: No. 89
Sep 7, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Tyler Van Dyke (10) looks to throw a pass during the third quarter against the South Dakota Coyotes at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
Passing Yards Per Game: 203.0
Wisconsin flashed its big-play ability in the first half against South Dakota, then barely mustered any offense in the second half. This yardage total is extremely underwhelming given the talk surrounding Longo’s offense and Tyler Van Dyke’s potential in it.
Rushing Offense: No. 51
Wisconsin running back Tawee Walker (3) find s an opening in the Western Michigan defense during the first quarter of their game Friday, August 30, 2024 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. Mark Hoffman / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK
Rushing Yards Per Game: 183.5
Wisconsin’s rushing offense has been a lone bright spot through two weeks. Tawee Walker, Chez Mellusi and Cade Yacamelli all look like legitimate options. True freshmen Darrion Dupree and Dilin Jones also saw carries against South Dakota. The rush offense shouldn’t be a concern.
Total Offense: No. 75
Wisconsin offensive coordinator Phil Longo works with the team’s quarterbacks during practice on Tuesday April 9, 2024 at the McClain Center in Madison, Wisconsin. Credit: Mark Stewart / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK
Total Yards Per Game: 386.5
Wisconsin sitting at No. 75 in total offense after two games against low-level nonconference competition is a disappointment. That is especially so given the circumstances surrounding Phil Longo’s offense. His air raid is supposed to produce results not previously seen at the school, not have it rank toward the bottom of the country.
First Downs: No. 25
Sep 7, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers wide receiver Will Pauling (6) rushes with the football after catching a pass during the second quarter against the South Dakota Coyotes at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
First Downs Per Game: 25.0
Wisconsin has moved the chains moderately well through two weeks. The struggles have come when the team approaches the red zone.
Third Down Conversions: No. 12
Sep 7, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Tyler Van Dyke (10) steps up to avoid pressure from South Dakota Coyotes defensive lineman Nick Gaes (54) during the first quarter at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
Third Down Conversion Percentage: 56.7% (17/30)
This rate is one of two things. Either the Badgers are great at picking up clutch third-down scenarios, or the mark of 56.7% is unsustainable long term. The key to third-down conversions is avoiding them entirely. As seen, the Badgers have moved the ball well — but not well enough on early downs. This has created far too many third-down scenarios, scenarios that will only get tougher as opposing defenses improve.
Fourth Down Conversions: No. 1
Sep 7, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell looks on during the second quarter against the South Dakota Coyotes at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
Fourth Down Conversion Percentage: 100% (2/2)
I’d expect this total to increase as the season continues. Wisconsin was far too conservative in fourth-and-short scenarios in 2023.
Penalties: No. 2
Aug 30, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell talks with linebacker Leon Lowery Jr. (8) during the second quarter against the Western Michigan Broncos at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Penalty Yards Per Game: 15.0
This is an area where Wisconsin deserves credit. The team has been extremely disciplined. It has only committed seven penalties for 30 yards through two games. That rate must continue this weekend against Alabama.
Sacks Allowed: No. 32
Aug 30, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Tyler Van Dyke (10) rushes with the football during the second quarter against the Western Michigan Broncos at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Sacks Allowed Per Game: 1.5
Wisconsin has protected Tyler Van Dyke well through two games. His athleticism has also been a help in avoiding sacks. But overall, the Badgers rarely move backward on offense. They just need to find another gear when moving forward.
Red Zone Offense: No. 88
Aug 30, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers kicker Nathanial Vakos (90) attempts to kick a field goal during the game against the Western Michigan Broncos at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Red Zone Conversion Percentage: 80% (8/10)
This might be the most important stat to Wisconsin’s success against top teams this season. The Badgers have been bad in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on only five of 10 trips. All of those five have been rushing touchdowns, for the record. Longo’s air raid passing doesn’t work nearly as well in close quarters.
Turnovers Lost: No. 51
Wisconsin quarterback Tyler Van Dyke (10) fumble the ball away during the third quarter of their game against Western Michigan Friday, August 30, 2024 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK
Total Turnovers Lost: 2
Wisconsin has done a fine job of taking care of the football thus far. The offense was much better in Week 2, especially Van Dyke. Vinny Anthony’s fumbled punt shouldn’t be held against Longo’s offense.
Here’s a cliche: Wisconsin must win the turnover battle against Alabama.
Time of Possession: No. 17
Sep 7, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Chez Mellusi (1) rushes for a touchdown during the first quarter against the South Dakota Coyotes at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
Average Minutes In Possession Per Game: 33.0
Wisconsin, again, has controlled the ball well through two games. It did so for three quarters against South Dakota, only struggling during a disastrous start to the second half.
It will be interesting to see how Wisconsin approaches the Alabama matchup. I’d bet it tries to hold the ball for as long as possible.e
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Publish date : 2024-09-10 03:00:00
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