With the Rams nearly pulling off the upset in Boulder last year, Douglas Farmer is taking the points with a highly motivated Colorado State program eyeing vengeance at home.
Sep 13, 2024 • 13:58 ET
• 4 min read
Last season’s matchup between the Colorado Buffaloes and the Colorado State Rams was one of the best games of the 2023 season, both on and off the field. Deion Sanders and Jay Norvell verbally sparred in the press beforehand, and then the double-overtime thriller kept many of us up late into Sunday morning.
This year’s rematch is shaping up to bring the same drama, if not more. The spread is three possessions closer, yet there may still be value in the underdog Rams. My Colorado vs. Colorado State predictions lean that way in our college football picks for Saturday, September 14.
Colorado vs Colorado State prediction
My best bet
Colorado State +7 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
A quick finger on Sunday afternoon could secure Colorado State at +8, but since then, the faith in the home underdog has driven this spread down to +7.5 by Tuesday afternoon, much to the chagrin of anyone who has made money for two straight weeks by fading Colorado backers.
Colorado is currently a touchdown favorite at Colorado State on Saturday.
“College Football 134” has a quiet request of the world: Please, keep betting Colorado …
We want that +7.5, maybe that +8 … pic.twitter.com/ICbo84PNRE
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 12, 2024
But still, a home underdog getting a full touchdown warrants notice, especially when its star quarterback has openly acknowledged awareness of last year’s spread. One can only assume he knows this weekend’s, too.
“[Colorado] came out with that attitude, thought it was going to be a cakewalk, saw those reports (of) 27.5 points or whatever it was,” Rams quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi said during preseason practices. “They got a rude, rude awakening real quick. It goes to show that the hype, the media train, all that, it only gets you so far.”
A correction for Fowler-Nicolosi: That spread peaked at +24.5 at some books, most hanging at +23.5 come kickoff. However, his point stands, as Colorado State gave Colorado far more than it expected in that 43-35 double-overtime joyride. The Buffaloes needed a last-minute touchdown simply to force overtime.
The Rams have not gotten over that, to the extent that it may explain why they are 0-2 against the spread this season, falling short of bookmakers expectations by 17 points in their opener at Texas and by 9.5 points last week against Northern Colorado.
“We owe [Colorado] one,” Colorado State star receiver Tory Horton said in that same August interview. “That’s been sitting on everybody’s minds since we came back from (summer) break. We walked away from that game — I don’t think we left it all on the field, because we should have murdered those guys.”
“We should have murdered them guys …we’re coming for revenge”
“We’ll see how far instagram followers gets them”
Here’s what CSU’s Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and Tory Horton had to say about last year’s Rocky Mountain Showdown and the upcoming game against CU: pic.twitter.com/51ZBPyigpf
— Romi Bean (@Romi_Bean) September 12, 2024
Watching the Rams this season, it’s clear they’ve been eyeing this matchup all along. A loss at Texas seemed inevitable even to the most optimistic Colorado State fan, while a win against FCS-level Northern Colorado was practically guaranteed before last weekend. The Rams were able to look ahead without altering their season’s trajectory.
A supremely motivated home underdog that has been planning for this game for the better part of two months is getting a full touchdown. Let’s embrace this narrative.
Colorado vs Colorado State same-game parlay (SGP)
Colorado State +7.5
Travis Hunter anytime touchdown
Tory Horton anytime touchdown
A bold man would say to play the Over 58.5 instead of relying on two separate anytime touchdown scorers, but a bolder man would overlook that the Rams may be a different challenge for Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Both North Dakota State and Nebraska rattled him via pressure, and Colorado State will attempt to do it with a veteran secondary.
A total approaching 60 may seem low after last year’s game reached 78, but remove the extra frames and it was only 56. Take out the Buffaloes’ last-minute touchdown and… well, you can do that math.
If that secondary is frustrating Sanders, he will undoubtedly hone in on his most talented receiver, Travis Hunter.
Horton is the Colorado State counterpart to Hunter, and if he is willing to say the Rams should have “murdered” the Buffaloes, he should back up those words on Saturday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Colorado vs Colorado State odds
Colorado vs Colorado State live odds
Colorado vs Colorado State opening odds
Spread: Colorado -7.5 | Colorado State +7.5
Moneyline: Colorado -250 | Colorado State +200
Over/Under: Over 59.5 | Under 59.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Colorado vs Colorado State spread and Over/Under analysis
Because this is a game involving Deion Sanders and Colorado, sportsbooks offered this line all summer, spending the first half of the summer at -8.5 before falling -7.5 in early July, where it remained until action this week.
Do not be stunned to see this number climb anew on Saturday, likely to +7.5 and possibly, hopefully to +8. Colorado backers have bet late in the week thus far this season, specifically the mornings of games.
The total opened at 59.5 on Sunday, and this may be the more notable line movement than the spread falling to +7. The total falling to 58.5 and even, momentarily, to 57.5 on Thursday is an argument for trusting the Rams more than the Buffaloes.
Colorado vs Colorado State betting trend to know
Both these teams are 0-2 against the spread this season. Find more college football betting trends for Colorado vs Colorado State.
Colorado vs Colorado State game info
Location:
Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins, CO
Date:
Saturday, 9-14, 2024
Kickoff:
7:30 p.m. ET
TV:
CBS
Colorado vs Colorado State latest injuries
Colorado vs Colorado State weather
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Publish date : 2024-09-13 06:58:00
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