Shawnee County is projected warm by more than 3 degrees on average and have 24 days additional where the temperature exceeds 90 degrees annually by 2040, according to a USA Today analysis of climate projection data.
Central and eastern Kansas, along with a large share of the Great Plains and Midwest, are projected to warm by more than 3 degrees. The analysis categorizes “significant” increases as a 2.6- to 4.5-degree rise in average annual temperatures.
Saline County could see an increase of 2.9 degrees, and Reno County could see a 2.8-degree rise. Both are projected to have 24 additional days of temperatures topping 90 degrees.
The Midwest sees the most change in the model, with a continuous stretch of land from north Arkansas to the Canadian border expected to warm “significantly,” as well as a pocket of significant warmth in and around Utah, parts of the northeast United States and northern Alaska. The northernmost county in Alaska, North Slope, is projected to warm more than any others at 4.5 degrees.
Areas in the United States are having significant increases in extreme heat.
How much your county could warm
Search for your county to see how heat could affect you in the near future.
Here’s what to know about the projections
These findings are part of a USA TODAY analysis of data from the Climate Impact Lab. The analysis uses county-level temperature projections to assess how annual warming and extreme heat are expected to change from 2020 to 2040.
Like most climate projections, this data shows the nation warming over the next two decades. But the analysis also highlights the potential for cooler regions of the U.S. to experience a significant increase in average annual temperatures. Meanwhile, hotter regions are expected to see the biggest increase in days above 90 degrees.
USA TODAY used data from climate models that make two main assumptions. First, future population and economic development follow historical patterns. Second, stringent climate policies enable significant emissions reductions by 2100.
Scientists refer to this set of assumptions as a “middle of the road” scenario for how social and economic changes may affect how climate change unfolds.
Technically, the scenario is named SSP2-4.5, and it is just one of many possible climate scenarios.
What to know about Kansas
One-fourth of the United States’ farmlands are in the Great Plains, where a 3-degree temperature rise could have huge effects on agriculture. Greater warming in this region could extend the frost-free season but also increase heat-related crop failures. Weather-related crop insurance payouts from the federal government have already risen significantly since 2001, with heat as a cause of loss increasing over 1,000% according to an analysis of Department of Agriculture data by the Environmental Working Group.
“Economic dependence on crops, rangelands, and recreation makes residents with land-based livelihoods vulnerable to climate-related changes in weather,” according to the Fifth National Climate Assessment. Warming in this region could have uncertain consequences for local farmers.
Where will there be the least warming?
Just 517 counties are expected to experience “minimal warming” of just 1 to 2.1 degrees in USA Today’s climate analysis. Most of the West Coast, the Southeast, Hawaii and Puerto Rico are projected to only experience minimal warming.
More hot days expected
Over 1,600 counties are expected to experience “moderate” warming between 2.1 and 2.6 degrees, including parts of western Kansas.
Many counties that already experience warm weather will face many more days of dangerous heat within two decades, according to the projections.
USA TODAY grouped together counties based on the number of additional days above 90 degrees they may experience.
More than 1,000 counties are projected to see the “most” increase: more than 21 additional days above 90 degrees.
Nearly 750 counties with 14 to 21 additional days above 90 degrees may experience “more” increase in extreme heat, while nearly 640 counties with seven to 14 additional days are expected to see “some.”
Roughly 830 counties are projected to see “few” additional days of extreme heat: fewer than seven more days above 90 degrees.
These categories also closely approximate natural “breaks” in the distribution of data.
Those groupings show regions that could face a notable increase in extreme heat risk:
Counties in the Florida Peninsula are projected to experience the greatest increase in days above 90 degrees.
The Southeast and parts of the Midwest may see over three additional weeks of extreme heat, although those days will likely be spread out throughout the year.
Why more hot days matters
Exposure to extreme heat can be uncomfortable at best, making it difficult to focus when learning or working. At worst, it can be deadly. Heat is already the leading cause of climate-related deaths in the U.S., and more days above 90 degrees may increase the number of heat-related deaths and illness.
When the air temperature exceeds 90 degrees, the human body begins to gain more heat than it can release. Sweating can allow the body to cool further, but in especially hot and humid climates, sweat may not evaporate fast enough, which can cause the body’s internal temperature to rise dangerously.
Children and older adults are most at risk of developing heat-related health complications, especially when they have preexisting conditions.
Although people accustomed to warmer climates can be overwhelmed by extreme heat, it poses the biggest threat in places not prepared for hot weather.
“You can imagine a local elementary school may not have air conditioning yet, and that has real consequences when it’s a 90-degree day in a city that’s not used to that,” said Kelly McCusker, a climate scientist at the Climate Impact Lab.
Escaping impacts of climate change
Adding more green spaces to urban areas, installing more air conditioning and constructing cooling centers can help people avoid the worst effects of heat, but not all communities have the funding to implement these solutions.
Across the country, escaping the effects of climate change may become more challenging. While historically cooler regions are getting a lot hotter, hotter regions are facing more dangerous heat.
People may be able to adjust to a rapidly warming country, but “we have the ability now to reduce the worst impacts simply by reducing emissions now,” McCusker said. “And we’ve shown that lives can be saved.”
Abhinav Krishnan is a climate data intern for USA TODAY. Reach him on X at @AbhinavSKrish.
This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Kansas among regions with expected significant warming by 2040
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Publish date : 2024-09-03 02:44:00
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