(TND) — The battleground state of Pennsylvania might be even more key to this year’s presidential election than people realize.
Pennsylvania has the most electoral votes, 19, of the seven true swing states.
That alone illustrates Pennsylvania’s importance to Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
But as goes Pennsylvania, so too does fellow swing states Michigan and Wisconsin. That’s if history holds this election cycle.
Casey Burgat, the Legislative Affairs Program Director at George Washington University, shared a video this week in which he talked about the importance of Pennsylvania.
The candidate who has won Pennsylvania has also won Michigan and Wisconsin in eight straight elections.Michigan and Wisconsin add 25 more electoral votes to the tally.
Those three states have essentially been a package deal in every presidential race of the last 30 years.
Winning those three states doesn’t guarantee a candidate the White House, Burgat noted.
George W. Bush lost all three but still won the election. But that’s the exception, he said.
“Stop paying attention to national polls,” Burgat said in his video. “I know they’re sexy. I know you’re stressed about the election. You wanna know who’s going to win. And you got poll after poll telling you, Kamala’s up two here, Trump’s down four there. I get why you wanna pay attention to them, but here’s the simple reality. We don’t run national elections in this country. We simply don’t do it. The popular vote doesn’t win you anything in the United States of America.”
But, if you’re looking for “predictive power,” look to Pennsylvania, he said.
This election is looking much the same as the last eight, Burgat said.
Odds are good that those three states will all go to the same side, and having those three states in a candidate’s column puts them well on their way to securing enough of the swing state votes to emerge victorious.
“History suggests that Pennsylvania is going to be the be-all-end-all in this election,” he said.
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Publish date : 2024-09-07 05:48:00
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