(WHTM) — How important is Pennsylvania in an election year? It is a complicated question that comes down to two things: math and history.
Past elections and even polling have shown the path to the White House really does run directly through the Commonwealth, needing to get 19 out of the 270 electoral votes doesn’t sound like a lot but that smaller number will make a massive difference.
“We’re really seen as the big prize,” Danielle Gross of Clear Point Communications said.
There is no question – Pennsylvania will play a pivotal role in deciding the presidency. It’s not hype, it’s history. Pennsylvanians voted for the eventual president in 10 out of the last 12 elections.
“Back in 2016, Trump only won by 0.7%, less than a point. In 2020, Biden won by 1.2%, just over a point,” Camille Mumford, the communications director for Emerson College Polling.
Not just that – but out of all the battleground states, Pennsylvania has the most electoral votes, just a few more than the other biggest battlegrounds.
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“There are so few states seen as flappable that four votes is a significant chunk of the getable votes,” Gross said.
Assuming the other 43 solid so-called red and blue states vote as expected, Trump and Harris will each have about 220 electoral votes before swing states are counted. They need 270 to win.
“Right now, it’s a toss-up,” Mumford said.
Not only that, but polls show a razor-thin race all within the margin of error.
“Our last poll in PA found less than a point difference between the candidates,” Mumford said.
Another thing that speaks to just how tight this race is is the fact that the most money is being spent on political ads here in Pennsylvania.
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Publish date : 2024-09-06 11:27:00
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