BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana will play an FCS opponent for the fourth straight season when Western Illinois comes to town for Friday’s 7 p.m. ET kickoff.
I’ve covered the last three, and those games registered far down on the list of Indiana games with the most excitement from fans. Last year’s 41-7 blowout of Indiana State also was on a Friday night, and some fans chose to attend high school games in the area instead.
The 2022 game against Idaho was played through heavy rain, which limited the crowd at kickoff and left Memorial Stadium nearly empty by the end. Indiana fans packed the stands for the 2021 game against Idaho, due to the momentum and excitement former head coach Tom Allen built after successful 2019 and 2020 seasons. But like Saturday’s 31-7 win of Florida International and plenty of previous Indiana football games, many fans left at halftime.
When Indiana schedules an FCS opponent, some fans don’t come at all because of the highly likely outcome. Others decide to save their money for a different matchup, all understandable reasons.
New Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti is in the process of building excitement and gaining trust from fans. They are justified in taking a wait-and-see approach before fully buying back into Indiana football after a 9-27 stretch since 2021, the worst three-year record among Big Teams. The best way to regain trust is by winning games, and all signs point to Cignetti beginning his Indiana tenure 2-0. “Baby steps,” Cignetti said Thursday on the Inside Indiana Football radio show.
Oddsmakers haven’t released a point spread for the game as of Thursday afternoon, but one relevant metric confirms what most would have guessed – a blowout. Each week, ESPN’s Bill Connelly publishes what are called SP+, and that metric predicts Indiana to win 45-3.
Connelly explains that SP+ is designed to track overall team efficiency, and it can be used to make predictions, similar to the analytics systems Vegas uses. There’s a lot that goes into the analytics system, which is fully detailed here.
🍾🪩 WEEK 2 SP+ PICKS 🥳🪅
Texas 28, Michigan 21
Nebraska 30, Colorado 20
Iowa 21, ISU 14
Tennessee 34, NC St 20
Okla St 34, Arkansas 27
Kansas 31, Illinois 25
LOOK AT THAT BEAUTIFUL LATE-SATURDAY SLATE pic.twitter.com/nsasC6Z4Mf
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 3, 2024
But rather than bogging down the preview of Friday’s game with formulas, one column on the SP+ charts tells the story. The Hoosiers’ win probability is 100%.
Western Illinois lost its first game of the 2024 season 54-15 against Northern Illinois. That extended the Leathernecks’ losing streak to 25 games, their last win coming on Oct. 30, 2021, against Illinois State.
Western Illinois replaced coach Myers Hendrickson after two 0-11 seasons with Joe Davis, who earned his first head coaching gig after two seasons as Eastern Illinois’ offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. It’ll take time to rebuild the program, which was picked to finish last in the Big South/Ohio Valley preseason poll.
So what can Indiana gain from Friday’s game against Western Illinois?
Nothing that will drastically change the long-term outlook for the 2024 season in a positive way. But there are a few tangible things the Hoosiers can accomplish that would keep them on the right track toward a successful season.
That starts with fixing mistakes from Week 1. After a near-flawless start, jumping out to a 21-0 lead, Indiana hit a lull toward the end of the first half and for a good chunk of the second half. Cignetti was unhappy with the nine penalties that cost Indiana 80 yards and that the Hoosiers played behind the sticks too often on second and third down.
He pointed out two decisions from quarterback Kurtis Rourke on plays that should have led to touchdowns but didn’t. There also was the trick play that should have been a touchdown, where running back Ty Son Lawton left his pass to a wide-open Omar Cooper Jr. well short.
Cignetti mentioned pressure off the edge getting to Rourke more often than he’d like. Defensively, Indiana was one drive away from pitching a shutout, but FIU’s touchdown drive to end the first half left Cignetti frustrated. Those are all things that Indiana can clean up in Week 2 and feel that some progress has been made.
Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke (9) throws the ball against Florida International. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK
Friday’s game can also be used to build confidence and cohesion on a roster that added 30 transfers and returned just 38 scholarship players from last season, tied for the third fewest of any FBS team. It’s good for any team’s psyche to feel its game plan working and learn to play together, no matter the opponent.
Tight end Zach Horton, one of 13 James Madison transfers, noticed growth in that respect against FIU.
“It was a huge step,” Horton said postgame. “We knew it was going to be hard, because everybody’s got to get used to a new system. We got how many people left and how many people coming in, so we knew it was going to take a while for everything to click. But I’m really excited for how people learned the playbook so fast and how willing they were to work on what they need to work on and asking questions when they need to ask. So I feel like they learned the playbook very fast. I felt like we clicked more early on than I expected.”
The best-case scenario for Indiana on Friday would be to dominate both sides of the ball, clean up its mistakes from last week, continue to grow its knowledge of the playbook and team chemistry, and cruise to a blowout victory. Based on the computer-predicted outcome, that’s well within the realm of possibility.
Indiana also should balance the future with the present. It’s important for Indiana to stay healthy, with nine Big Ten games on the horizon.
Cignetti called the Hoosiers’ 2023 leading receiver Donaven McCulley day-to-day after leaving the FIU game with an injury, and he limited running back Kaelon Black (hamstring) to one carry for precautionary reasons. There’s not much reason to push them to play Friday if they’re not 100%.
The anticipated margin of victory opens the door for Indiana to play its reserves late in the game and see what its young talent can provide. Cignetti did that for the final two drives against FIU, with Tayven Jackson at quarterback and several true freshmen getting their first taste of college football. Those snaps, however few, can be valuable.
Indiana should take care of business easily Friday against Western Illinois. But the outcome won’t change the outlook for the 2024 season – unless Indiana suffers a monumental upset.
We’ll really find out what Indiana is made of in its first Big Ten game on Sept. 14 at UCLA. But for now, points of progress against Western Illinois are all part of Indiana’s growth under Cignetti.
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Publish date : 2024-09-05 06:01:00
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