Now that Labor Day has passed, the general election season kicks off leading into the Nov. 5 Election Day.
But the reliably Republican South Carolina doesn’t have a statewide race outside of the presidential contest featuring Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
With no statewide candidates campaigning this year, the state’s two major parties can focus on local races.
However in the state Legislature, where all 170 House and Senate seats are up for election this year, only a handful of General Assembly seats will be truly competitive in November’s elections, because of the way most state legislative districts are drawn in South Carolina.
So, how many districts can expect to see spirited races this fall. In an analysis that considered 2022 results and the partisan leanings that result from the most recent redistricting, 17 out of the 170 legislative districts could be worth watching in November.
Senate Districts to Watch
In the Senate, only 27 of the state Senate’s 46 seats will have contested elections. This election is the first time the newly drawn Senate districts will have contests since the 2020 census.
Republicans, who control both chambers, can look to go on offense in the Senate. Seven seats, Senate Districts 17, 26, 29, 30, 35, 36 and 39 can be seen as competitive, when considering the partisan breakdowns of districts according to analysis by Dave’s Redistricting. All seven of those seats are held by Democrats.
Most the districts are in the Midlands and the Pee Dee.
Senate Minority Leader Brad Hutto, D- Orangeburg, conceded Democrats will play defense in the upper chamber, but added if turnout numbers are unusual for a presidential election, more districts could be put in play.
“We’re focused on making sure all of our candidates, whether they are incumbents or whether they’re nominees in open districts, are well-funded, well-staffed and have the proper strategies going into November so all of them have a chance to win. Our numbers right now show they all do,” Hutto said.
Hutto was confident Democrats would hold all of their seats and potentially pick up one.
Hutto argues the Senate District 41 race in the Lowcountry race featuring Democrat Rita Adkins and state Rep. Matt Leber, R- Charleston, who defeated state Sen. Sandy Senn in the GOP primary, could be a chance for Democrats to make a pick up.
“It’s the Lowcountry. I don’t know if you can differentiate between Lowcountry Republicans and (Upstate) Republicans, but there is a difference. That’s why Charleston trends more blue. … I think there’s an opportunity there,” Hutto said.
Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey expects he’ll be able to add to his ranks and won’t fall below the 30 members his caucus has now. But he hasn’t made a decision on where his caucus could invest money.
“We’re going to be taking a look at probably seven or eight and just see, see how things look, and we’ll be monitoring them as we go along,” Massey said. “We’ve got some ideas, but we’ll make some we’ll make some harder decisions as we get some numbers, and just kind of see what things are looking like.”
The two Senate districts to watch closest are Senate District 17, a rural district that includes parts of Chester, Fairfield and York counties and is represented by state Sen. Mike Fanning, and Senate District 39, a rural district with parts of Berkeley, Calhoun, Colleton, Dorchester and Orangeburg counties and represented by state Sen. Vernon Stephens, who are both Democrats.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee added Stephens to its spotlight races, which is an effort to encourage out-of-state donors to contribute to his campaign.
Rural areas have trended more Republican.
Both Fanning and Stephens were the only two senators to vote against the redistricting plan.
A race in Senate District 29 is one that Republicans might eye. The seat, currently is currently held by state Sen. Gerald Malloy, D- Darlington, who has been in the Senate since 2002. Even though President Joe Biden carried the district in 2020, Republican Gov. Henry McMaster carried the district in 2022 during his reelection campaign.
In the Midlands, the most anticipated race may be the Senate District 26 featuring state Rep. Russell Ott, D- Calhoun, and Republican Jason Guerry. The district was drawn to have Democratic lean of only 3 points based on previous voting patterns, according to Dave’s Redistricting. State Sens. Nikki Setzler, D- Lexington, and Dick Harpootlian, D- Richland, were drawn into the same district after the 2020 census. Setzler opted not to run for reelection and Ott defeated Harpootlian in the primary.
House Has More Democratic Pick Up Opportunities
Democrats currently have 36 seats in the state House. They need to reach at least 42 seats to no longer be a superminority.
Only 54 of the 124 House districts have contested races.
The House has more opportunities for the Democrats to go on offense, while they also will need to defend their incumbents.
Ten seats in the House, eight of which have incumbents running for reelection, are expected to be competitive. Of the 10 seats, Democrats and Republicans each hold five seats. Most of the competitive districts are spread out in the Pee Dee, the I-95 corridor and the Lowcountry.
Three districts in particular to watch are House Districts 64, 116 and 122. They were among the seats flipped red in 2022, but all are located within U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn’s congressional district.
Republicans also hold House District 12, where state Rep. Daniel Gibson ousted former Democratic state Rep. Anne Parks.
“When you flip a seat, it can be considered a toss up” in the next election, said House Majority Leader Davey Hiott. “I imagine they will come back stronger than ever and (try) to take those seats back.”
Democrats will look to defend the seat held by state Rep. Heather Bauer, a Democrat who ousted Republican state Rep. Kirkman Finlay in 2022. Finlay is looking to reclaim the Richland County seat.
House Minority Leader Todd Rutherford said even though Democrats across the country appear to be more energized with Harris taking over the top of the ticket, candidates can’t take it for granted, especially after the 2022 losses.
“As excited Democrats appear to be about Kamala Harris, this is not a time to rest. This is a time to get out and do our jobs so that people can see the contrast in the parties,” Rutherford said.
Views From the State Parties
Doing well in the down ballot races will depend on turnout. But they also could be influenced by what’s happening at the top of the ticket.
S.C. Republican Party Chairman Drew McKissick said he expects the increased Democratic enthusiasm to wear off.
“The issues are still the same. Right now, I would say the media has the Democrat Party on a sugar high since they made the switch. Get a big boost out of that,” McKissick said, adding naming a running mate and holding the Democratic convention serve as positive headlines.
“The point is that can only last for so long, because at the end of the day, the issues on the ground have not changed, and they are not going to change. The economy still sucks. Inflation is still bad. The border is still a mess,” McKissick said.
McKissick said he believes Republicans can flip two House seats and two Senate seats, but would not be specific.
“There’s a lot of targets,” McKissick said.
“Due to our success. It is a much more limited environment of targets than it used to be,” McKissick added.
After the 2022 losses, South Carolina Democratic Party Chairwoman Christale Spain has sought a reset for the party. With no statewide election on the ballot, Spain has used the opportunity to focus on the local races and not build up hopes of flipping the state blue.
The party is able to work with their county parties or State House, State Senate candidates, being able to give them more face time. It gives them an opportunity to focus on local races, instead of working closely with a statewide race such as a senate race or governor’s race.
“We don’t have this big fundraising mechanism,” Spain said. “And it’s not always a big fundraising mechanism because it depends on who the top of ticket is, but it also, I think it’s like a good and bad thing. It allows us to be more focused on races where we know we can win and what we should be winning. But it is, I think, a bigger lift when you don’t have that one person driving the ticket.”
The state Democratic Party contends the S.C. GOP will be trying to defend four of their 2022 pick ups in the House: Districts 12, 64, 116 and 122.
“Getting a white Republican elected in a Black district is going to be a stretch in 2024 with Kamala Harris at top of the ticket,” said S.C. Democratic Party Executive Director Jay Parmley.
©2024 The State. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
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Publish date : 2024-09-03 11:10:00
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