AUGUSTA, Maine — Vice President Kamala Harris has the chance to win a district in Maine twice won by former President Donald Trump, according to a poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
The poll, released Aug. 21, found that 49% of likely voters in Maine’s second congressional district say they plan to vote for Harris and 44% plan to vote for Trump. However, the error margin for the poll is 3.1%, and pollsters describe the race as “tied” and “close.”
It’s still a telling result in a district that voted for Trump by 10 points in 2016 and by seven 2020. Maine awards one of its four Electoral College votes to the winner in each of its two congressional districts, plus two to the popular vote winner. The southern, more populous part of the state votes strongly Democratic. The northern, more rural area is where Trump has won a single Electoral College vote in Maine in the past two elections.
“The fact that it’s even close is good news for the Democrats,” said Jim Melcher, a professor of political science at the University of Maine at Farmington. He said voters have tended to stay pretty steady in their support for either candidate this cycle, so the recent swing for Harris is notable.
“If I were the Democrats, I would not be resting on my laurels from that poll, that district could certainly go either way, depending on how the rest of the campaign goes. But generally, the race has not been particularly volatile,” Melcher said. “That might also be a sign that some people that might not have voted for Biden, or might not have voted, perhaps have turned to Harris.”
Melcher thinks the district is reflecting the same trend as much of the nation, where Harris is seeing a surge in popularity and Democrats are more excited for the race.
Walz more popular in Maine with Democrats than Vance is with Trump voters
The poll also found that Maine voters are pleased with Harris’ running mate pick, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. 59% of Harris supporters are enthusiastic about Walz, compared to the 37% of Trump supporters enthusiastic about Ohio Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s running mate.
More: Kamala Harris expands lead over Donald Trump in two NH polls
“I think Tim Walz is the kind of candidate who can come to rural Maine and campaign probably better than Harris herself,” Melcher said. “I think that people would probably relate to his more rural background, right, from the little town in Nebraska.”
Overall, 55% of likely voters in Maine said they would vote for Harris, over 38% for Trump. This is a wider margin than in July, when Harris took 48% of the polled vote over 40% for Trump. In Maine’s first congressional district, which leans Democratic, Harris receives 63% of the vote compared to just 33% for Trump.
What does this mean for Jared Golden?
Harris’ positive polling is good news for Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat who represents Maine’s conservative second district, Melcher said. He faces Trump-backed Republican Austin Theriault in November in a race that has been rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
“Golden has run ahead of the Democratic, ran quite a bit ahead of the Democratic presidential candidate in 2020, so if the race is statistically a dead heat at that point … that’s very good news for Jared Golden in his race for re-election, because he’s likely to run better than Harris in the second congressional district,” Melcher said. Golden won his district by over 6% of the vote in 2020, while Biden lost by 7%.
Golden has not endorsed Harris (he has never made an endorsement in presidential races). But while some Democrats might find Golden too conservative, Melcher thinks Democrats animated by Harris will still show up and vote for him, too.
“But who knows?” Melcher said. “It’s been a volatile year, and weird things have happened.”
Will Maine change how it awards Electoral College votes?
Maine is one of two states that distributes its electoral votes by the winner of each congressional district. (Nebraska is the other.) With four total electoral votes, two are awarded to the winner of the state as a whole and one to the winner of each of the two congressional districts.
The last two elections, Maine’s second district’s electoral vote has gone to Trump.
“In a blowout election, it doesn’t matter very much,” Melcher said. “But in a lot of these races, I mean, look how close 2000 was. You know, it was five electoral votes in the end.” (In 2000, former President George Bush beat Al Gore 271 electoral votes to 266.)
In an election as close as 2024 is expected to be, there are scenarios where the one electoral vote in Maine could be “pivotal.”
Maine recently passed a law making it the 17th state to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, an agreement that awards all electoral votes from states in the compact to the candidate who won the national popular vote. However, the agreement needs states with a combined 270 electoral votes to be enacted. It currently only has 209, so it will not go into effect this year.
Melcher thinks it likely will never be enacted; it’s a highly partisan issue with most Republicans and Republican states against the measure, and polling suggests Maine residents support the current system.
Of people who have heard something about the NPV in Maine, 58% strongly or somewhat support Maine joining the NPV, while 70% somewhat or strongly oppose, according to another poll out of UNH. 48% prefer Maine’s current “congressional district” system of allocating electoral college votes, over the 37% who want a “winner-take-all” system.
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Publish date : 2024-08-27 22:12:00
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