A single game could determine whether Tennessee makes or misses the College Football Playoff this season as the bracket expands to 12 teams.
So Tennessee football predictions could say more than meets the eye.
In Josh Heupel’s three seasons as coach, I’ve been right once and close twice in picking the Vols’ record.
In 2021, I picked a 7-5 record in the regular season, which was right on target. In 2022, I picked the Vols to go 8-4, and they overachieved at 10-2. In 2023, I picked a 9-3 record, and they fell just short at 8-4.
For this Tennessee football season, my pick is a 9-3 record, although I’m conflicted on how the Vols get there. I’ll explain in these game-by-game predictions:
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Tennessee predictions for 2025 college football seasonAug. 31: Tennessee vs. Chattanooga
Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville.
About the game: The buzz around Nico Iamaleava and this potentially explosive offense will only get louder after this onslaught. Several receivers will get their chance to flash in this rout, but some will stay on the sideline in Week 2.
Prediction: Tennessee 59, Chattanooga 7
Sept. 7: Tennessee vs. NC State
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
About the game: This could be a shootout. NC State is intent on scoring a lot with transfer quarterback Grayson McCall, who passed for almost 10,000 yards at Coastal Carolina, and some talented receivers. UT must keep pace, which probably won’t be a problem. But UT’s secondary will be tested, which could spell trouble.
Prediction: Tennessee 38, NC State 30
Sept. 14: Tennessee vs. Kent State
Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville
About the game: Kent State went 1-11 last season, so the Vols will score as many as they choose. This would be a good game for Iamaleava and the starters to sit out the second half and turn their attention to Oklahoma.
Prediction: Tennessee 63, Kent State 6
Sept. 21: Tennessee vs. Oklahoma
Location: Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, Norman
About the game: Once the Heupel homecoming dies down, the Sooners’ SEC debut will be one of the most exciting games of the season. Unfortunately for the Vols, the home team will have the ball last for a game-winning field goal.
Prediction: Oklahoma 38, Tennessee 35
Oct. 5: Tennessee vs. Arkansas
Location: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville
About the game: Don’t overlook the trap game potential here. This is the type of midseason matchup that could save coach Sam Pittman’s job if Arkansas wins. And the Razorbacks will play a physical style, so it won’t be a gimme for the Vols. Fortunately for UT, it comes after an off week. So the Vols should be focused.
Prediction: Tennessee 42, Arkansas 24
Oct. 12: Tennessee vs. Florida
Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville
About the game: I’m more convinced of a 9-3 record than of the Vols losing this game. But recent history says UT will lose a game that it should’ve won from a preseason perspective (see South Carolina 2022, Missouri 2023). Without an obvious letdown game on the schedule, let’s go with an old nemesis to upset the Vols. UT also could get to 9-3 by beating Florida and losing to Alabama.
Prediction: Florida 30, Tennessee 28
Oct. 19: Tennessee vs. Alabama
Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville
About the game: The goalposts might not come down again. But there’s a good feel for the Vols in this Third Saturday in October game. UT beat Alabama in their last meeting in Neyland Stadium. And there are questions of whether new coach Kalen DeBoer can keep the Tide at Nick Saban’s standards. This victory could put UT in the playoff picture.
Prediction: Tennessee 35, Alabama 31
Nov. 2: Tennessee vs. Kentucky
Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville
About the game: Kentucky must answer two big questions before having a shot to beat UT in Neyland Stadium. Can Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff be a difference-maker at quarterback? And can UK rebuild its offensive line to keep James Pearce and company in check? There are doubts about both.
Prediction: Tennessee 34, Kentucky 21
Nov. 9: Tennessee vs. Mississippi State
Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville
About the game: Mississippi State hopes first-year coach Jeff Lebby can impact the Bulldogs like Heupel did the Vols. Lebby coached with Heupel at Oklahoma and under Heupel at UCF. But Lebby doesn’t have the roster to catch up that easily.
Prediction: Tennessee 41, Mississippi State 21
Nov. 16: Tennessee vs. Georgia
Location: Sanford Stadium, Athens
About the game: Star quarterback Hendon Hooker was a little rattled between the hedges two years ago. So don’t expect the barking from Georgia fans or the bite from the Bulldogs defense to be much different this time.
Prediction: Georgia 30, Tennessee 17
Nov. 23: Tennessee vs. UTEP
Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville
About the game: Will Gaston Moore or Jake Merklinger get more snaps at quarterback in this game? It’s senior day, so probably Moore. But Merklinger, the freshman, will need the extra reps to get his footing before blue-chip recruit George MacIntyre arrives in the offseason.
Prediction: Tennessee 52, UTEP 10
Nov. 30: Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
Location: First Bank Stadium, Nashville
About the game: If UT’s season goes like I think it will, the Vols could be in the mix for a playoff spot or more likely be one of the first teams out. Either scenario would provide an intriguing backdrop for this game.
Prediction: Tennessee 41, Vanderbilt 13
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Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email [email protected]. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.
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