College football started off with a bang as Georgia Tech upset Florida State in Ireland on Saturday. If you’ve been tracking with me as the season starts, we didn’t have any action in that one, but we did start off the season with a win as the under came home for us in Nevada.
As the season gets really underway this weekend, I’m not rushing to bet a ton of games (especially totals) early in the season. There are a couple of reasons why that’s the case.
First, the two-minute warning. I have a solid idea of how much that should affect totals, but until I see how the college game adapts to the rule, it’s hard to know for sure.
The second part is the helmet communication. Will this cause the pace to be slower across the sport? What is the effect on efficiency if a coach can speak to a quarterback until there are 15 seconds left on the play clock? Blame these two changes for my cautious approach to start the year.
As of right now, I’m going with five plays, but I expect to add at least two plays throughout the week (Update: One has already been added). Market entry and price point are vital to success when betting on sports. If you think you can get a better price if you wait a day or two, patience is key.
And as always, please shop around for the best price. If you have any questions, please feel free to comment or reach out on X/Twitter (@amock419) and I’d be glad to help.
Before we dive into this week’s best bets, let’s take a look at our record so far:
All-time: 171-161-11, -2.24 units, -0.6% ROI
Last season: 50-60-2, -16.6 units, -13.7% ROI
Last week: 1-0, 1.00 units
2024 Season: 1-0, 1.00 units, 90.9% ROI
Fantasy Football 2024
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Best bets for college football Week 1
All plays are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs. I’m also sharing a “worst line to bet,” which is the last number that I would bet before the game no longer has enough value to make a bet.
Minnesota moneyline (+105) vs. North Carolina
North Carolina has taken some money over the weekend and is now a short favorite, and I disagree with the move. The Tar Heels have had a great run at quarterback over the last handful of years with Sam Howell and Drake Maye, but that’s not the case this year. Unless Mack Brown has found another NFL Draft pick in either Max Johnson or Conner Harrell, I think there is going to be a decent step back this season. Now, I’m not a huge fan of Minnesota’s offense, but I do think the Golden Gophers upgraded at quarterback heading into this season. Does Minnesota have the juice to take down a more talented North Carolina roster? I think they do.
Worst line to bet: -105
UNLV at Houston over 54.5 (-110)
Willie Fritz comes over to Houston after a successful tenure at Tulane, and that means we have to look at style of play here. Fritz will probably shift more toward the run, but in terms of pace, Houston and Tulane had similar numbers last season. UNLV, on the other hand, plays really fast. Last year, they were 28th in pace and 21st in drives per game, according to TruMedia. Houston will play slower, but I think you might see an improvement in Houston’s efficiency with Fritz at the helm. This game has a chance of getting to the 60s if things go according to plan.
Worst line to bet: Over 56.5 (-110)
Troy -8 (-110) vs. Nevada
This line was -12 before Nevada played SMU on Saturday and was hovering around 13 or 13.5 last week. Sure, Nevada played above expectation in that game, and I think they’re much improved from last year, but that’s a significant adjustment based on one game. My numbers have this north of double digits and I’m glad to take a stab here by selling high on Nevada.
Worst line to bet: Troy -9.5 (-110)
South Alabama -5.5 (-110) vs. North Texas
My number is 7.5 here. Factor in North Texas losing one of the best defensive players in fall camp to a season-ending knee injury, and we have a play on the Jaguars. Sure, South Alabama is breaking in new head coaches, so maybe we see something out of left field because that’s how college football is in 2024 when it comes to offseason turnover. But South Alabama promoted their offensive coordinator, Major Applewhite, and that gives me a little sense of continuity.
Worst line to bet: South Alabama -6.5 (-110)
Florida +3 (-115) vs. Miami
This might be the biggest game of the weekend, with all respect to Georgia–Clemson (which has a two-touchdown spread). Both coaches are in desperate need of a good season, and neither team wants to start off with a loss to their in-state rival. My number on the game actually makes Florida a short favorite and I’m probably a tad low on Miami, but I cannot get to a field goal here. I would not expect this game to close at this price as we have already seen some sportsbooks come off 3, sitting at 2.5.
Worst line to bet: Florida +3 (-115) or moneyline +105
James Madison -6.5 (-110) at Charlotte
This is a bit of a late addition (coming in at 4 p.m. ET on Monday). There was some Charlotte money coming in earlier today. I wanted to see how far the money was going to take this line before I jumped into the action.
Worst line to bet: James Madison -7 (-110)
(Photo of Graham Mertz: David Rosenblum / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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Publish date : 2024-08-26 05:01:00
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