Topline
New polls from The New York Times and Siena College indicate a tightened race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in four sun belt states—Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina—marking a turnaround for Democrats as Harris benefits from increased support from Black, female and young voters.
US Vice President Kamala Harris delivers the keynote speech at the American Federation of Teachers’ … [+] 88th National Convention in Houston, Texas, on July 25, 2024. (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
AFP via Getty Images
Key Facts
NEW—Arizona: Harris has a lead on Trump among Arizona’s likely voters, boasting a 50% to 45% lead over the former President, according to the Times/Siena poll, and a 4-point spread among registered voters.
NEW—Georgia: Trump maintains a 4-point lead among likely voters, and a 7-point lead among registered voters, according to the poll.
NEW—Nevada: Trump has a 2-point lead among likely voters and registered voters—down from a nine-point lead over President Biden in some polls in May.
NEW—North Carolina: Harris now leads among likely voters (2 points) and registered voters (4 pints), a major swing from Trump’s seven-point lead over Biden in May.
Pennsylvania: Harris leads Trump by one point, 49% to 48% with 3% of voters undecided, in a head-to-head matchup, according to Cook’s survey of 2,867 likely voters conducted July 26-Aug. 2, taking over Trump’s three-point lead over Biden there in a Cook poll from May.
Michigan: Harris also leads Trump here by three points, 49% to 46% with 5% of voters undecided; Trump led by two points here in May.
Wisconsin: Harris would beat Trump here by three points, 49% to 46% with 5% of voters undecided, if the election were held today, after Trump was tied with Biden there in May.
The Cook poll comes days after a New York Times/Siena poll also found Harris ahead of Trump by four points in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found she would also beat him in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, but Trump would win in North Carolina.
Tangent
Harris is receiving more support from younger, nonwhite and female voters—demographics who showed indecision over their support for Biden before he dropped out—according to the Times, which noted Harris had support from 84% of Black voters in the polls, a higher share of support than Biden had before withdrawing from the race in July.
Big Number
One. That’s the overall number of points Harris leads by in the seven battleground states, according to the Cook survey.
Key Background
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, despite insisting he would continue his campaign amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his June 27 debate performance. He immediately endorsed Harris, she announced plans to seek the nomination and officially became the nominee in the first week of August when 99% of delegates voted for her in a virtual roll call. Prior to Biden dropping out of the race, polls consistently found Trump would beat him in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.
Further Reading
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Trump Narrowly Leads In Most Polls After Biden Drops Out (Forbes)
Trump’s Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll Finds (Forbes)
Trump-Biden 2024 Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning In The 6 States That Will Decide The Election (Forbes)
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Publish date : 2024-08-17 03:19:00
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