Before we get started, let’s pour one out for Mike Vrabel’s 58% ATS success rate as an underdog with the Tennessee Titans. See you at the crossroads my friend…
Vrabel is gone, replaced by first-timer Brian Callahan as head coach in Tennessee. He inherits a team that could be headed for a horrible 2024 if the NFL odds are correct in their forecast.
The Titans are long shots all over the futures board, have a win total of 6.5 shaded to the Under, and are pegged as underdogs in all but one game. Where’s Vrabel when we need him, right?
Making matters worse in Music City is the departure of stud running back Derrick Henry, who at least gave Tennessee a reliable option on offense. The keys are now in the hands of second year QB Will Levis, who just did an ad for a Hellmann’s Mayonnaise scented cologne.
Will the Titans simply smell like egg farts, or can bettors make a tasty profit from all those extra points this year? Let’s take a whiff with my 2024 Tennessee Titans NFL betting preview and NFL picks.
Tennessee Titans odds
Market
Win Super Bowl
+15000
Win conference
+8000
Win division
+1000
Make playoffs
+425
Over 6.5 wins
+110
Under 6.5 wins
-135
Best futures bet: Under 6.5 wins (-135)
Life in the AFC South used to guarantee at least a few wins, but 2024 feels different with Houston out front, Jacksonville in the mix, and Indianapolis improving. The Tennessee Titans are underdogs in 16 of 17 games and getting more than the field goal in 11 of those games. Last season, teams getting +3.5 or more won just 30% of their games which pans out to only five wins if Tennessee follows suit.
There’s just too much change to overcome in Year 1 under new head coach Brian Callahan. The season starts with a steep uphill climb against contenders and the middle of the schedule has the Titans living out of a suitcase. Whatever’s left after that will have a tough time scrapping six wins together.
Tennessee Titans at a glance: The day the music died
Futures-wise and win totals-wise, Tennessee seems destined to fail. However, when it comes to weekly odds, the Titans will get Costco-sized spreads from the bookies. The defense gets a shot in the arm under new coordinator Dennard Wilson, who is pressing for game-changing plays (sacks, fumbles, interceptions).
What will win bets: Pass defense
As mentioned above, the defensive philosophy in Tennessee is flipped on its ear with the hire of Wilson as coordinator. The Titans were about as dangerous as a NERF ball dipped in Purell on that side of the ball in 2023, generating little pressure and creating only 14 takeaways.
The secondary has been sharpened with the additions of L’Jarius Sneed, Chidobe Awuzie, Jamal Adams, and Quandre Diggs. Wilson is turning up the intensity with more press coverage and hoping to milk coverage sacks and interceptions from that aggressive coverage scheme.
What will lose bets: Offensive line
Whether it’s pass protection or run blocking, the Titans offensive line is forecasted to struggle in 2024. Callahan has his work cut out for him with this group, employing his dad Bill Callahan to coach up the awful O-line that got even worse with the sudden retirement of guard Saahdiq Charles.
The Titans made splashes on offense with names like Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard added to the skill positions. But if Will Levis isn’t given time to make throws, those new targets won’t mean squat. As for Pollard, he’s been running behind one of the best offensive lines in Dallas his whole career and now has to dance between rusty lawn chairs in Tennessee.
Tennessee Titans schedule + spot bet: Points of interest
If you’ve read my NFL previews, you’ve heard me talk about teams being so bad that they actually become good bets, as books balloon those underdog lines with every loss. That could be Tennessee in 2024. Before a single snap or market move is made, the Titans are already getting piles of points most weeks, drawing an average spread of +3.85.
While those bloated handicaps are tempting, the schedule could work against any wagers on the underdog. Tennessee starts 2024 with a baptism by fire, facing Chicago, the N.Y. Jets, Green Bay, and Miami before an early bye in Week 5.
Week 7 kicks of a grueling stretch with a trip to Buffalo and has the Titans on the road five times in seven games all the way to Week 13. Tennessee was terrible on the road in 2023, finishing 1-7 SU and 2-6 against the spread.
Week
Date
Opponent
1
Sunday, September 8
@ Chicago
2
Sunday, September 15
vs. New York (J)
3
Sunday, September 22
vs. Green Bay
4
Sunday, September 29
@ Miami
5
Bye Week
N/A
6
Sunday, October 13
vs. Indianapolis
7
Sunday, October 20
@ Buffalo
8
Sunday, October 27
@ Detroit
9
Sunday, November 3
vs. New England
10
Sunday, November 10
@ Los Angeles (C)
11
Sunday, November 17
vs. Minnesota
12
Sunday, November 24
@ Houston
13
Sunday, December 1
@ Washington
14
Sunday, December 8
vs. Jacksonville
15
Sunday, December 15
vs. Cincinnati
16
Sunday, December 22
@ Indianapolis
17
Sunday, December 29
@ Jacksonville
18
Sunday, January 5
vs. Houston
Spot bet: Week 13 @ Washington (+1.5, 46.5)
That aforementioned road-heavy slate closes in the nation’s capital in Week 13. It will be Tennessee’s second of back-to-back road games, third in four weeks, and fifth away tilt in seven weeks.
The look-ahead spread says Titans +1.5 but given the team’s trajectory, this one could flirt with the field goal if things go south for Callahan & Co.
In a weird schedule quirk, the Commanders enjoy a home-hefty sked at the same time with only two road games in seven weeks.
Hold the mayo
Best prop: Over 12.5 interceptions (+100)
Brian Callahan’s offense is asking a lot from Levis, who was picked off four times in his nine games in 2023, but also attempted just 28 passes per outing. With Tennessee expected to be playing from behind every week, there’s more pressure on him to pass the ball.
This is a brand-new offense with a slew of brand-new targets to jell with. Mix in a bad offensive line, and we could see poorly-timed or rushed tosses into the teeth of a defense knowing that Tennessee must throw the football.
Player projections sit on the fence when it comes to Levis’ miscues, pretty much coming in at 12.5 interceptions. Given the Over is paying EVEN money and Levis will be exposed more, I’m calling for an unlucky 13 INTs (or more) in 2024.
Tennessee Titans trend: Home underdogs
Given the upheaval in Nashville, any season-to-season trends for the Titans are null and void. So, tread lightly.
Perhaps instead of trying to action a trend for the 2024 season we just honor a fallen factoid. As mentioned at the top, the Titans were always live when getting points under former coach Mike Vrabel. That was especially true at home where Tennessee was 13-6-1 ATS as a dog (67.5%).
This season, the Vrabel-less Titans are home dogs in all but one of their eight games in Smashville. Brian Callahan has big shoes to fill in the eyes of underdog bettors.
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Publish date : 2024-08-16 04:00:00
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