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Almost every pollster points out that polls are not necessarily predictive and that they don’t tell you what people will think in the future. Instead, they’re simply a portrait of a moment in time.
Now is an especially interesting time to take stock of the polling on the race for the White House and speculate on what it might mean for the November elections.
In the last three weeks or so, we have seen Democratic President Joe Biden perform abysmally against his Republican challenger, Donald Trump; an assassination attempt against the former president; Biden dropping out of the race – the only time in American politics when a major presidential candidate has dropped out so close to an election – Vice President Kamala Harris ascending to the top spot an Trump ruling the Republican national convention.
Vice President Kamala Harris pictured on July 27. Photo: Associated Press / Alamy
In looking at American polling, it is important to understand that there is no national election for the presidency. Instead, America relies on a system where each state receives a certain number of votes based on its representation in the US House of Representatives and Senate (the Electoral College).
National polls can give us important clues on what the national trends are. However, under the American system, what counts is state-by-state polling.
Any discussion of changes in recent polling must consider the fact that recent polling numbers were largely frozen or moving at a glacial pace. The race for the White House was largely stuck as Trump held a small, but significant, advantage over Biden.
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In polling released by the New York Times and Sienna College on 25 July, 47% say they will vote for Harris while 48% prefer Trump. The Times commented on these numbers saying they were “a marked improvement for Democrats when compared to the Times/Siena poll in early July that showed Biden behind by six percentage points, in the aftermath of the poor debate performance that eventually drove him from the race.”
Harris performed better than Biden did among younger, and non-white voters. Harris wins 59% of voters under age 30, garners 72% of the Black vote and 60% of Hispanic voters. Among voters under 45, Harris performs ten percentage points better than President Biden did three weeks ago.
There is some good news for team Trump in the New York Times/Sienna polling. His favourable ratings rose to 48% from 44% in February.
President Joe Biden arrives at the White House on July 28. Photo: Associated Press / Alamy
Trump also continues to have a firm grasp on white voters without a college education (67%) and rural/small-town voters (59%). His favourability may be nothing to brag about in absolute terms, however, they represent a new high. Previously, the same poll had found his favourable ratings between 39% and 45%.
CNN released national polling on 24 July 24 which shows that Harris has cut Trump’s advantage by half – from six percentage points to three (49% to 46%). Much of Harris’ improvement comes among typical Democratic groups: voters ages 18 to 34 (up seven points, to 49%), Black voters (up eight points to 78%), and female voters (up four points to 50%).
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National polling conducted by the Wall Street Journal released on 26 July gave Trump a two-point advantage (49% to 47%) over Harris. This poll also offered some good news to Trump, as 50% gave him positive grades for his performance as president while 47% gave a negative assessment. This is a significant shift in Wall Street Journal polling as for the last three years, Trump’s unfavourable scores had been at least ten points higher than his positive grades.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll released on 28 July – after Biden decided not to run – has more good news for the Harris campaign. Forty-four percent of respondents have a favourable impression of Harris which is up from 28% last week. Trump has seen his favourability ratings among Independents drop from 40% to 36%.
Turning to state polling, we find an Emerson College and the Hill poll released on 25 July of five battleground states that also has good news for Harris. The research found that Harris has made inroads among voters ages 18 to 34 as her support compared to Biden increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling this month.
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Harris also picked up support from female voters in Georgia (up four points to 48%), Michigan (up 12 points to 52%), Pennsylvania (up nine points to 51%), and Wisconsin (up 12 points to 54%).
Fox News also conducted polling in battleground states which it released on July 26. The states that Fox looked at are Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The broadcaster found that: Harris and Trump are tied at 49% percent in Michigan (Harris is polling three points better than Biden did in April); In Minnesota, Harris has a 52% to 46% advantage over Trump (worth noting, is that Fox News is an outlier in seeing Minnesota as a battleground state). Trump and Harris are locked in a 49% tie in Pennsylvania, and in Minnesota, Trump edges Harris out by a margin of 50% to 49%.
There is evidence that the Trump campaign’s internal polling is picking up signs of a shift in support for Harris.
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In a memo released to the media, the Trump campaign’s pollster Tony Fabrizio argues: “That means we will start to see public polling – particularly national public polls – where Harris is gaining on or even leading President Trump. Obviously, the situation we find ourselves in today is totally uncharted territory and has no modern historical parallel.”
Based on Fabrizio’s memo, we can conclude that the Trump campaign is bracing itself for a period when the former president is behind Harris.
The evidence in all the polling from many different sources clearly shows an electorate that is moving towards Harris at both the national level and in several key battleground states. However, Harris is still the underdog in the race, as she acknowledged on Saturday.
The data clearly shows that this is Harris’ moment, but there are roughly 100 days until Election Day and Trump is a formidable opponent.
Source link : https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/30/us-presidential-elections-polls-trump-harris/
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Publish date : 2024-07-30 05:23:53
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