Feb 13, 2024; Syracuse, New York, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Elliot Cadeau (2) shoots the ball as Syracuse Orange guard JJ Starling (2) defends during the first half at the JMA Wireless Dome.
Rich Barnes
USA TODAY Sports
Exactly a month ago on Wednesday, North Carolina looked like a viable national championship contender during a 36-point victory at home against Syracuse. The Tar Heels did just about everything right in that 103-67 win, and in the final moments the only drama was whether they’d eclipse 100 points, and thus trigger a popular Smith Center promotion for free fast food biscuits.
Consider the dominance for UNC on that particular Saturday. It scored at least 51 points in both halves. It led by as many as 27 points in the first half, and by 39 in the second. Five players scored in double figures and another two finished with nine points; both Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram had double-doubles. The Tar Heels were equally successful on the defensive end, too.
UNC traveled to upstate New York earlier this week and on Tuesday night played the same Syracuse team it’d dominated a month earlier. It figured to be more of a challenge, on the road, and from the beginning it was a much different game. The Tar Heels trailed by 10 four times in the first half and faced a deficit, overall, for more than 32 minutes.
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Their 86-79 defeat represented a 43-point swing from when these teams played each other on Jan. 13 in Chapel Hill. More important, the defeat was UNC’s third in its past five games, and the continuation of a discomforting trend for the Tar Heels. Teams with aspirations of making deep March runs want to be approaching peak form in February. UNC is trending the opposite way.
Amid UNC’s recent struggles, here are reasons to be concerned. And why to remain hopeful, still:
WHY CONCERN IS WARRANTED
1. The Tar Heels have made a habit of faltering in late-game situations
If there’s one broad, general commonality among UNC’s three recent defeats, it’s probably this: it hasn’t played winning basketball in the final minutes. “Winning basketball” is one of those nebulous cliches coaches like to use that can be difficult to define with precision. But whatever it is, it’s not what UNC has been doing late in games.
The Tar Heels were in a good (or at least decent) position with four minutes remaining against Georgia Tech, Clemson and Syracuse, and found a way to lose all three. Clemson turned a tie game into a four-point victory; Syracuse’s lead went from four to seven. UNC actually cut into Georgia Tech’s three-point lead with four minutes left, but couldn’t make the critical play late.
Even in its two victories during the past five games, the trend has held. UNC led Duke by 13 points with four minutes left, before the Blue Devils cut that deficit to seven. At Miami, UNC led by nine with four minutes remaining and then held on for a three-point victory.
Missed shots, turnovers, missed free throws, bad fouls – it has been different things in different games down the stretch. But overall it has been the same thing: bad basketball.
North Carolina’s Elliot Cadeau (2) recovers a turnover by Miami’s Paul Djobel (10) in the first half on Saturday, February 10, 2024 at the Watsco Center in Coral Gables, Florida. Robert Willett [email protected]
2. The defense is either getting worse, or teams are simply having better luck
One of Roy Williams’ favorite sayings (or at least one of his most used) went something like this: “Everything looks better when the ball goes in the basket.” Or worse, in the case of UNC’s defense.
The Royism is true, though, and it’s a subtle nod to how much of this game comes down to chance. Controlled chance, yes. But chance, nonetheless.
Sometimes a team just gets hot. Like, say, Syracuse on Tuesday night. The Orange shot 62.5% from the field – the best a UNC opponent has shot since Pittsburgh shot 64.5% in February 2015. (And yes, UNC lost that game, too.)
So the immediate question after a game like that is: “Wow – what happened to the Tar Heels’ defense!?” In reality the conversation should probably focus more on Syracuse, which played probably its best game of the season and held on in the final minutes.
Was UNC’s defense that bad to allow the Orange such a great shooting night? Probably not, in actuality. Over the course of a long season, statistics tend to even out. UNC during its 10-game winning streak played a lot of teams that didn’t shoot particularly well (Syracuse shot 36.5 percent during the first game between these teams).
Chances are good UNC won’t give up another 62.5% shooting performance this season.
There is a but, though, and it’s this: each of UNC’s past five opponents have shot relatively well. All of them, according to barttorvik.com, have shot an effective field goal percentage (which combines 2- and 3-point attempts into one metric) of at least 47%. That’s too high a percentage, and much higher than what UNC was allowing through most of its winning streak.
Miami’s Michael Nwoko (1) defends North Carolina’s Jalen Washington (13) in the second half on Saturday, February 10, 2024 at the Watsco Center in Coral Gables, Florida. Robert Willett [email protected]
3. Scoring lapses are growing problematic
RJ Davis gave UNC a 65-64 lead Tuesday night with a little more than seven minutes left. From there Syracuse regained the lead and expanded it while UNC scored four points in four minutes. The Tar Heels never trailed by fewer than four points in the final minutes.
Against Miami, UNC led by nine, 72-63, with four minutes remaining. It didn’t score again until 1:34 remained, after the Hurricanes had cut their deficit to three. The Tar Heels managed to hang on despite not making a shot from the field during the final four minutes.
Against Clemson, same thing. UNC tied the game on a Harrison Ingram 3 with 4:17 left. It didn’t score again until 1:30 remained, after Clemson had built a seven-point lead.
The examples stretch well beyond the past couple of weeks. Scoring lapses were a factor in December defeats against Connecticut and Kentucky, too. When the Tar Heels are on, they’re among the most capable offensive teams in the nation. But they’ve also displayed a confounding knack to go several minutes at a time without scoring.
WHY THERE’S STILL PLENTY OF REASON FOR HOPE
1. A break is in order
UNC is in the midst of perhaps the most difficult part of its schedule – if not in terms of competition then because of the grind of it. The Tar Heels had back-to-back Saturday-Tuesday swings, the latter of which included trips to the opposite ends of the conference, at Miami and at Syracuse. If this team has hit a bit of a wall, there’s probably a good reason for it.
The good news: a break is upcoming. After the Virginia Tech game at the Smith Center this weekend, UNC doesn’t play again until the following Saturday, at Virginia. Beyond that, the only other regular season road game is the finale, at Duke. The Tar Heels look like a team in need of a break, and they’re about to get one.
2. The Tar Heels still have RJ Davis and Armando Bacot
Davis is the frontrunner for ACC Player of the Year honors. Bacot, meanwhile, has upped his game recently as the reality settles in that the end of his college career is coming to a close. This team will go as far as this duo takes it – and there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that Davis and Bacot are capable of leading an extended postseason run.
The question is not one of will but of wear. Can Davis maintain his form, after shouldering so much for so long? Can Bacot, who clearly played through pain at Syracuse, muster whatever he has left for one last run?
If the answers to those questions are yes, then UNC will be as capable a title contender as any.
North Carolina’s Harrison Ingram (55) embraces R.J. Davis (4) after Davis’ basket gave the Tar Heels’ a 79-63 lead in the second half against Louisville. Davis led all scores with 21 points in North Carolina’s 86-70 victory Robert Willett [email protected]
3. Other teams have good players, too – and off nights happen
An ode to another one of Roy Williams’ go-tos: Sometimes, it’s not just all about North Carolina. Georgia Tech, Clemson and Syracuse – and especially Clemson, this season – are all capable, on any given night, of beating anyone.
There’s no shame in losing on the road to a Syracuse team that shot 62.5%. Sometimes you get beat. There’s no shame in losing to Clemson this season. The Tigers are good. PJ Hall is a first-team All-ACC player. The loss at Georgia Tech is more difficult to understand, but those things happen sometimes.
UNC still has time to right itself as March approaches. The schedule calms down a bit. The travel decreases. There’s an opportunity for a reset. The past three losses have provided lessons and teachable moments. In several weeks, we’ll have a better sense of whether these losses were something of a blip, or the start of a disappointing finish to a promising season.
This story was originally published February 14, 2024 11:32 AM.
Andrew Carter spent 10 years covering major college athletics, six of them covering the University of North Carolina for The News & Observer and The Charlotte Observer. Now he’s a member of The N&O’s and Observer’s statewide enterprise and investigative reporting team. He attended N.C. State and grew up in Raleigh dreaming of becoming a journalist.
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Publish date : 2024-02-14 03:00:00
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