Hello, hello and welcome back to another recruiting mailbag. It was a busy June for recruiting departments everywhere, and before we know it, prospects will be back on campuses again for visits and fall Saturdays.
We can expect to see more commitments between now and the beginning of the high school season in late August.
In the meantime, thank you so much for your questions and for supporting our recruiting coverage. Let’s dive in.
Editor’s note: Questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Hi Grace, is it time for Florida Gators fans to accept the cold truth that their school is no longer a recruiting destination and falls into a Tier 2 category destination? — Moe J.
We’re coming in hot to start us off.
But to answer your question … maybe.
It’s always hard to reconcile things in our mind that seem so hard to be true. Florida is the flagship university of one of the most talent-rich states in the country and plays in the best conference. The Gators have three national championships, including two this century. Recruiting top talent to Gainesville shouldn’t be too difficult. But the numbers are the numbers. Florida has signed four consecutive classes ranked 12th or lower. In the last 10 cycles, it’s signed just two top-10 classes: No. 9 in 2019 and No. 8 in 2020.
Gainesville can still be an elite recruiting destination given Florida’s history and access to talent. But it hasn’t been for quite a while. And the Gators will be under a lot of scrutiny in the coming months. Head coach Billy Napier is 11-14 in his first two years with a program that hasn’t had a winning season since 2020. Signing five-star quarterback DJ Lagway last December was significant, but if Florida struggles again this fall, I’d imagine it will make the recruiting pitch even more difficult. It should be a fascinating season.
Do you buy the notion that the SEC is the leader in football recruiting? And how would you rank all of the conferences when it comes to recruiting? — Ed H.
I do.
Recruits in the Class of 2024 will be the first freshman class to compete in the new-look conferences. The SEC will now get credit for Texas and Oklahoma’s recruiting while the Big Ten now claims Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA.
If we look at the numbers from the 10 classes from 2014 through 2023 — before realignment officially kicked in — here’s what they show:
The SEC had an average of 4.5 schools per year finish in the top 10 of the 247Sports team rankings.
The Big Ten averaged 1.6.
The Big 12 averaged 1.3.
The ACC averaged 1.2 and the now-defunct Pac-12 averaged 1.0.
Yes, a huge part of the SEC’s recruiting success can be attributed to the now-retired Nick Saban, the greatest recruiter in the history of the sport who signed a whopping 10 No. 1 classes from 2011-23. But Saban’s tenacity on the trail forced the rest of the league to level up. And he taught his ways to his understudies, including Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin and Texas’ Steve Sarkisian.
The Big Ten has clearly become more competitive with Oregon and USC in the league, and Ryan Day at Ohio State can recruit against anyone. But from top to bottom, the SEC is the best recruiting league and has firm roots in the three most talent-rich states: Georgia, Florida and Texas.
As for ranking all of the conferences when it comes to recruiting, I’d go: SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12 for the power conferences. It’s trickier with the Group of 5s, but I’d rank them: American, Sun Belt, Mountain West, Conference USA and MAC based on how the top teams in each league have recruited and the potential after realignment.
GO DEEPER
SEC recruiting thoughts: Is it time to worry about the Big Ten’s invasion?
What do you make of the surprising Rutgers recruiting class surge this summer? Is it realistic to think it can hold on to finish with a top-25 class for only the second time in program history, even if it’s driven in part by such a huge class size? — Matthew L.
You’re smart to point out that a team’s ranking is at least partly determined by how many prospects are in its class — especially this time of year. The bigger a class, the higher ranked it’s going to be.
Rutgers has the No. 18 class and is up to 29 commits, the most of any program in the country. But this is still a talented group — which is why I think a top-25 or top-30 ranking is within reach. Rutgers has six blue-chippers, up from four in the Class of 2024 and none in the Class of 2023. The average player rating of 87.59 is up from the 86.91 mark from a cycle ago, and that class ranked No. 36 nationally. And for a reference point, in the 2024 cycle, North Carolina’s class ranked No. 26 and included 29 prospects with an average player rating of 87.84.
You have to figure the Scarlet Knights are close to capacity with nearly 30 prospects already committed, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens between now and December. But coach Greg Schiano and his staff are clearly onto something — especially after summer official visits featuring visits to Times Square, fancy dinners and the beach.
Hi Grace, do you expect any re-ranking of the high school QBs following the elite camps? Thanks. — David F.
Yes! Recruiting services are frequently tinkering with their rankings as they get more opportunities to evaluate prospects, and in the case of the Elite 11 Finals, the industry has already made a few tweaks.
Alabama commit Keelon Russell picked up a fifth star and jumped 13 spots in the 247Sports Composite, from No. 34 on July 1 to No. 21 on July 10. USC commit Julian Lewis dropped a few spots from No. 9 to No. 15. Texas A&M commit Husan Longstreet jumped from No. 38 to No. 31, and Notre Dame commit Deuce Knight moved up 10 spots, from No. 42 to No. 32 as he eyes his fifth star. Georgia commit Ryan Montgomery went up 37 spots, from No. 144 to No. 107 and North Carolina commit Bryce Baker went from No. 238 in late May to No. 161 by July 10.
GO DEEPER
Bryce Baker, with assist from Drake Maye, in line to be next great in-state QB at UNC?
Perhaps the biggest development has been the emergence of now-Cal commit Jaron Keawe Sagapolutele, who didn’t even have a ranking until March. He’s now the top player in Hawaii and inside the top 500 nationally. Stay tuned for more movement as the high school season begins.
The moment he made it official!
2025 QB Jaron Keawe Sagapolutele – the No. 1 player out of Hawaii – commits to @CalFootball 🔥@BrandonHuffman x @JaronKeawe pic.twitter.com/1KnixmJtNh
— 247Sports (@247Sports) July 8, 2024
Hey Grace, I’ve heard talk about early signing day moving up to June next year, which I like on the surface, but my question is, with the transfer portal rules being what they are, how long would that letter be binding? Would a kid who signed in June before their senior year even ever have to report to that school? — Erik W.
Before college commissioners decided against implementing a June signing period starting in 2025, there was quite a bit of support for the summer period among recruiting staffers across the country. But one Power 4 general manager asked a question similar to yours: “Gone are the days of schools not allowing kids to get out of their NLIs. … That’s pretty rare,” he said. “If everyone wants to get out of their NLIs anyway, why even have a signing period?”
We see in the recruiting landscape that just because a prospect issues a commitment in June doesn’t mean he’ll sign with that program in December. But as another Power 4 general manager pointed out, “Nobody’s making them decide. If they’re undecided still (in June), they just shouldn’t sign.” Even if just “20 percent” of prospects sign in June, the general manager said, it’s still helpful for recruiting departments across the country. That’s the solution. June doesn’t need to be the new primary signing day but rather an opportunity for a prospect who knows without a doubt where he wants to play to put pen to paper and lock up his spot.
There have been suggestions to implement a stipulation that would let a prospect out of his letter in the event of a head coaching change. But if a prospect wants to wait and see how the portal or the season shakes out, he can still sign in December or February. June would be an additional opportunity, not a mandate.
Are there any intriguing recruiting battles you’re going to pay special attention to this season?
This isn’t necessarily player-specific, but I am so excited to watch Alabama and Georgia compete down the stretch as we get closer to December. I had questions about how Kalen DeBoer would recruit at Alabama, given his lack of ties to the Southeast and the fact that he’s replacing the greatest recruiter we’ve ever seen in Saban.
I assumed Smart and his Georgia staff would run the table with the Class of 2025 — and maybe beyond. But the Crimson Tide have been sensational on the recruiting trail this offseason. Their average player rating of 94.67 is the nation’s best and almost two points higher than Georgia’s 92.95 mark. DeBoer has tapped into his West Coast roots and picked up six players from California, in addition to flipping the best player in Texas in Russell. He might do things differently than Saban, but so far, it’s hard to argue with the results.
Has there been a noticeable impact on high-to-mid-level recruits from the uncertainty about what teams will be in the 2025 ACC? The August deadline for schools to leave (at their own peril) is looming. — Tom W.
The ACC has just one school with a top-10 class at the moment — Miami — but Clemson and Florida State, the two programs currently in court, are doing just fine on the recruiting front. The Tigers have 13 commits, including nine four-stars, while the Seminoles have 12 commits, 11 of whom are blue-chippers. Florida State’s average player rating of 92.89 (sixth nationally) is noticeably up from its 90.90 mark in the Class of 2024. Clemson is on the rise, too, going from 90.63 in 2024 to 92.83 now (seventh nationally).
No one knows how any of the litigation is going to shake out, but I wonder if the uncertainty plays in Florida State and Clemson’s favor on the recruiting trail. Who knows what will happen, but in the interim, coaches can at least pitch the hope of playing in the SEC or Big Ten to top prospects — and who doesn’t want to play in one of the two best leagues in the country? Until FSU and/or Clemson are unequivocally told that they are bound to the ACC, I’m not so sure the uncertainty is all bad.
Hey Grace, any surprises with the SEC so far this cycle? Especially with the mid-to-low-tier teams? Thanks. — Donovan H.
Mississippi State is off to a bit of a slow start under new coach Jeff Lebby. The Bulldogs have 17 commits but just three blue-chippers. Their average player rating of 87.53 is down slightly from the 87.89 mark from the 2024 cycle, which was a transitional class after the coaching change.
South Carolina also has some ground to make up. The Gamecocks signed a top-25 class in 2024 with an average player rating of 90.74 — their highest in the last decade-plus — but don’t have any top-200 prospects committed in the Class of 2025 after signing two top-50 prospects in 2024. It feels like a pivotal season for South Carolina, which has the 11th-ranked class in the SEC.
(Photo of Billy Napier: Jeff Blake / USA Today)
Source link : https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5645372/2024/07/19/recruiting-florida-alabama-sec/
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Publish date : 2024-07-19 05:02:10
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