The MLB Home Run Derby occurs Monday night at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. Want to get in on the action? We have all the info you need here.
First, let’s start with a recap of the new rules:
The first round is no longer head-to-head. The four players with the most home runs in the first round will advance to the next round. They will be seeded for head-to-head “knockout style” in the semifinals. The player with the most home runs in the first round will grab the No. 1 seed, etc.
If there is a tie in the first round, the seeding or qualifying will be broken by the longest home run distance.
In the first two rounds, the batter will be limited to three minutes, with a max of 40 pitches per round. This will eliminate the hurry for pitchers to throw as many balls as possible, which could increase fatigue and injury risk. Batters also still receive one 45-second timeout per round.
The Final round will consist of just 27 pitches.
Bonus time will be granted to each player at the end of each round. However, there will be no timer in the bonus round this season. Instead, the player will continue until he makes three outs (a ball that is not hit for a home run). One extra out can be earned if a player hits a home run 425 feet or longer.
A 60-second swing-off will break ties in the semifinals or finals. No timeouts will be granted during these 60 seconds.
Here are the current odds at DraftKings:
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pete Alonso +340
Marcell Ozuna +380
Gunnar Henderson +475
Adolis Garcia +500
Bobby WItt, Jr. +550
Teoscar Hernandez +1000
Jose Ramirez +1300
Alec Bohm +1600
Let’s break down all eight contestants with at least one reason to bet on each. At the end I will pick my winner.
Pete Alonso (+340)
Alonso is the only player on the list who has won this competition before, and he’s won it twice. Alonso has 18 home runs this season, which ranks fifth among this year’s competitors.
All 18 of his home runs would also have been homers in Globe Life Park, and nine would have been gone in any MLB park. Alonso still has a max exit velocity of 116.3, which is elite, but his other power metrics have fallen off quite a bit since his last win in 2021. In his age-29 season after an early exit from the Derby last year, I am going to fade him for this payout.
Marcell Ozuna (+380)
Ozuna can undoubtedly crush a baseball with an average exit velocity of 93.2 this season, second only to Gunnar Henderson, and his 11.7% barrels per plate appearance leads this field. Another interesting fact? Ozuna has 26 regular season home runs, second only to Henderson, and 25 of those would have gone out at Globe Life Field, while nine would have been homers in any ballpark.
Ozuna is a strong contender for the title.
Gunnar Henderson (+475)
Here he is! The home runs leader of the field as of today.
Only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have more this year. However, here are a couple of things to keep in mind. Henderson’s max home run (430) this season ranks sixth among contenders, and his 27 home runs would only equate to 22 in Globe Life Field. That’s fewer than Ozuna listed above and another contender we will get to later.
Nine of Henderson’s home runs this season would be gone in any ballpark, tying him for second in that category with Alonso and Ozuna. Remember, a bonus out can be earned by hitting a home run 425+ feet, so there could be a slight edge to having the ability to hit the ball longer.
Adolis Garcia (+500)
Here’s the hometown hero! Garcia will have the advantage of hitting in a familiar ballpark.
We saw that advantage work out well for Bryce Harper when he won the 2018 Derby in front of the hometown crowd in Philly. However, I don’t have a lot of confidence in Garcia this year.
Garcia has 17 home runs this season; all 17 would have been homers in Globe Life. However, those 17 “Globe Life” homers are ranked sixth among contestants. Garcia has only seven homers this season that would be gone in any ballpark.
His max homer this year is just 428 feet, and his average home run of 394 feet ranks last in the field. However, on the positive side, his max exit velocity ranks fourth, which can be a good sign in the Derby.
Garcia was eliminated in the first round last year and will be looking to put on a better show in front of the home crowd, but I can’t find many more reasons to get excited about him.
Bobby Witt, Jr. (+550)
Ok, brace yourselves for this one.
Do you know who leads the field in max exit velocity? That’s right.
Witt’s 116.9 mph max is tops.
Do you know who has more no-doubters than anyone on the field? Witt’s eleven leads the pack.
He also leads with the longest home run hit- 468 feet- 22 feet ahead of Ozuna and Alonso, who tie for second. It gets better: his average home run is 417 feet. That also leads the field.
Witt has only 15 home runs this season, but I think that’s working to our advantage with the payout. Remember, last year’s winner, Vlad Guererro, Jr., had only 13 home runs coming into the Derby. Witt’s home ballpark hasn’t done him any favors, as those 15 home runs would be 20 at Globe Life, and as I mentioned earlier, 11 of them would be out at any ballpark.
Now, throw in that Witt grew up in DFW and was snubbed not getting the All-Star start, and this payout looks enticing.
Teoscar Hernandez (+1000)
There’s a huge odds drop once we get to Hernandez. But there could be some value here if you want to throw a dart. Hernandez has 19 regular-season homers, of which 17 would be homers at Globe Life. He also has seven that would be out in any park. That’s identical to Adolis Garcia, but the payout is twice as much.
Hernandez has a longer max home run but a lower max exit velocity than Garcia. I have found that max exit velocity is often the key to picking winners, but for twice the payout of Garcia, there is some intrigue. Hernandez has the field’s third highest-barrels per plate appearance (9.4%) this season.
Jose Ramirez (+1300)
Ramirez is the best value on the board. Hear me out. Not only does Ramirez have 23 home runs this season (third in the field), all 23 of them would be out at Globe Life. That’s second only to Ozuna. Ramirez also has the second-highest max exit velocity (116.6) behind only Witt, Jr., and the fourth-longest home run.
Eight of his home runs would be out in any ballpark — one more than Hernandez and Garcia. Ramirez is the only witch-hitter in the crew. Maybe we are getting such a good rate because he exited in the first round two seasons ago, but here are two things to keep in mind about that exit:
1. He was eliminated 18-17 vs. Juan Soto — the ultimate champion for 2022 in the first round, and
2. We found out after the Derby that Ramirez was hitting with an injured thumb. I’m not saying Ramirez wins, but he is far undervalued.
Alec Bohm (+1600)
I told you I would give you at least one reason each player could win the Derby, so here’s my reason for Bohm: sometimes sports make no sense, and if he wins, it’s a juicy payout.
He has a higher average exit velocity than Ramirez and Alonso, so it isn’t impossible, but Bohm has only 11 home runs this season and only two home runs that would be out in any ballpark this year. Only nine of his homers would be out in Globe Life. His max exit velocity is only 110.8 this season, dead last in the field.
Every pick plays plus money for this one, so why not play a few? After breaking down the field, here are the plays I will be making for Monday night.
The Pick: Bobby WItt, Jr. (+550)
Sprinkle: Jose Ramirez, Jr. (+1300)
Extra: Marcell Ozuna to make the Finals (+165)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Source link : https://www.si.com/betting/2024-mlb-home-run-derby-odds-best-bets-breaking-down-entire-field
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Publish date : 2024-07-14 09:23:25
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