President Joe Biden is “undoubtedly” the Democratic candidate Donald Trump would “most like to face” in November according to a prominent political scientist, as the incumbent faces pressure to step aside from within his own party following growing concerns over the 81-year-old’s age and cognitive abilities. This poses a dilemma for Trump as attacking Biden too strongly over the issue could bring about his replacement as Democratic candidate.
The comment was made by Mark Shanahan, an expert in American politics who teaches at the University of Surrey in the U.K., in response to fresh polling suggesting either Vice President Kamala Harris or 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Rodham Clinton would perform better against Trump in November than Biden.
Concern over Biden’s age surged following his first presidential debate with Trump on June 27, during which the Democratic incumbent appeared at several points to lose his train of thought. In response a number of prominent Democrats, including members of Congress, have urged Biden to step aside but the president is continuing to insist he will seek a second term in November.
Speaking to Newsweek Shanahan said: “Up until the first presidential debate, Biden was the candidate most likely to beat Trump in November. Now, undoubtedly, Biden is the candidate Trump would most like to face.
Left, Donald Trump is seen at a campaign rally at the Trump National Doral Golf Club in Doral, Florida, on July 09, 2024. Right, President Joe Biden delivers remarks during the NATO 75th anniversary celebratory…
Left, Donald Trump is seen at a campaign rally at the Trump National Doral Golf Club in Doral, Florida, on July 09, 2024. Right, President Joe Biden delivers remarks during the NATO 75th anniversary celebratory event at the Andrew Mellon Auditorium in Washington, D.C., on July 9, 2024. Biden is “is “undoubtedly” the Democratic candidate Trump would prefer to face in November according to a political scientist.
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“As well as exploiting the president’s obvious aging, the slightly-younger Trump will be ruthless in exploiting the disquiet among voters, Democrat politicians and the media around Biden’s perceived decline. Trump has never treated an opponent with grace and understanding. Any weakness is an opportunity—and Biden has never looked weaker.”
Shanahan was speaking after Politico published details of a new survey conducted by Bendixen & Amandi that showed Trump ahead of Biden with 43 percent of the vote against 42 percent among likely November voters in a straight matchup.
By contrast the poll put Harris ahead of Trump by 42 percent to 41 percent, and former Secretary of State Clinton ahead of the Republican by 43 percent to 41 percent. However, California Gov. Gavin Newsom trailed Trump by 37 percent to 40 percent, while Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was behind with 36 percent against 40 percent.
The survey also found that of those likely voters who watched the June 27 debate, just 29 percent said Biden has the mental and physical stamina to serve a full second term, against 61 percent who think he doesn’t. Overall only 33 percent of those polled said Biden should remain the Democratic candidate for November, against 52 percent who think he should step aside. The poll of 1,000 likely November voters took place between July 2 and 6 with a 3.1 percent margin of error.
Newsweek contacted the 2024 Joe Biden and Donald Trump presidential campaigns for comment on Wednesday by email outside of usual office hours.
Speaking to Politico, Bendixen & Amandi special projects director Anthony Williams said: “There’s a certain sophistication at play in the way voters are reacting. They are not knee-jerk reacting to the names that are being bandied about on television.
“They are struggling with the same question the party is struggling with: Do we go with experience, or do we go with new?”
On June 30 Lara Trump, the Republican National Committee co-chair and Donald Trump’s daughter-in-law, said it would go “against our democratic process” for the Democrats to replace Biden with another candidate other than Harris.
Speaking to Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo, Lara Trump said: “Joe Biden has said he’s not going anywhere. His campaign came out right after that debate and said not only is he not quitting, they have committed to do the debate in September as well, which is shocking to hear. But Kamala Harris polls just about as bad, if not worse in a lot of cases, than Joe Biden.
“And so, they have a huge problem on their hands. If they remove Joe Biden from the ticket somehow and they do not have Kamala Harris as their nominee, and they try to plug someone else in, Maria, it is literally going against our democratic process here in this country.”
Trump has largely avoided commenting on Biden’s health or age in the aftermath of the June 27 debate, though he did tell Fox News host Sean Hannity that he thinks Harris is most likely to be his opponent in November.
Asked “do you want Joe Biden to step aside?” Trump replied: “Well, we prepared for him, but I don’t think it’s gonna matter. We’re heading into World War III in my opinion with this man semi-running things. ‘Cause he’s not running things, the people that surround the Oval Office, the people that surround the Resolute desk, the beautiful Resolute desk, they’re really running things in Washington I suspect, and it’s very bad.”
Hannity then asked: “What do you make of all the talk that if Biden steps aside or is pushed out, that it would be Vice President Harris?”
Trump replied: “Well, I think that it will be her. I think they are very concerned about the vote if it’s not her. They are very, very—I mean, they’re gun-shy, they don’t want to do it any other way. I’ve actually come to believe that’s what they’re going to do.”
On Monday CNN anchor Jake Tapper said Biden and his team are in “complete denial” over his health and the state of his 2024 reelection bid.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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Publish date : 2024-07-10 07:16:34
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