Arizona State football has seen better days. Herm Edwards was dismissed from the program and was subsequently found guilty for major NCAA recruiting violations. The Sun Devils posted back-to-back 3-9 seasons, most recently last year under new coach Kenny Dillingham. And now, throughout all the turmoil, Arizona State transitions to a new league, the Big 12.
In its current state, ASU is noncompetitive. The roster suffers from a reduced number of available scholarships – a penalty handed down from the NCAA – and, with the transfer portal wide open, players don’t want to play in a long-term rebuild.
So, Arizona State took a swing on Dillingham, a hotshot offensive coordinator at Oregon. After all, to turn a program around, you have to take risks. What does Year 2 in the rebuild look like for the Sun Devils?
Nov 16, 1991; Berkley, CA, USA; FILE PHOTO; Arizona State Sun Devils defensive back Darren Woodson (6) in action against the California Golden Bears at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: USA TODAY Sports / RVR Photos-USA TODAY Sports
While far from a college football blue blood, Arizona State has seen its fair share of successes. In 2013 and 2014 under Todd Graham, ASU went 20-7, winning the Sun Bowl before regressing. The Sun Devils graced the AP Top 25 as recently as 2021 where Edwards orchestrated back-to-back 8-5 full seasons (except 2020, where they played just four games).
This is a program backed by a wealthy university and wealthy donors in an attractive part of the country. The school has an enrollment over 80,000, largest in the country. Its home venue, Mountain America Stadium, has hosted national championships in the past.
ASU has two unclaimed national titles, 1970 and 1975, and 17 conference titles between the BIAA, WAC, and Pac-12 (formerly Pac-10). Throughout its 127-year history, Arizona State has a winning pedrigree. But that hardly translates to 2024.
2023 Results
Nov 25, 2023; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats linebacker Jacob Manu (top) sacks Arizona State Sun Devils quarterback Jaden Rashada in the second half of the Territorial Cup at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Dillingham had his work cut out for him in Year 1. Most expected a rough go, but perhaps not as rough a go as the Sun Devils had. They landed star recruit QB Jaden Rashada after a very public NIL battle with Florida. But Rashada spent a majority of the year sidelined with an injury before transferring to Georgia in the offseason. Behind him was a disaster of a QB room that combined for seven passing touchdowns and 11 interceptions (Rashada included).
The QB situation was so dire that Dillingham opted to use RB Cam Skattebo as the primary QB in some games and just run the ball. As a result, ASU finished the year ranked a dreadful 122nd in points per drive (PPD) scored.
Defense wasn’t any better, finishing 123rd in PPD. As a result, only two teams nationally were out-scored more on a per-drive basis, Stanford and Kent State.
ASU sprung an upset of UCLA late in the season and scored wins over Southern Utah (FCS) and Washington State. For a stretch, the team appeared frisky, frustrating eventual national runner-up Washington in a 15-7 slugfest and losing three consecutive games by just one score each. But 55-3 and 49-13 losses to Utah and Oregon, respectively, sent the wheels flying off the wagon and grounding the season in disappointment.
Oct 7, 2023; Tempe, Arizona, USA; ASU Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo (4) carries the ball against the Colorado Buffaloes at Mountain America Stadium. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY
As mentioned, Arizona State’s offense operates this year without Rashada. Skattebo does return in a running back room that isn’t devoid of talent. The Sun Devils landed Alton McCaskill from Colorado (and Houston) – a former 1,000-yard rusher that spent two years hurt. His ceiling could give ASU’s offense a real burst. All three top rushers from last season return.
Unfortunately, its top two receivers depart, WR Elijhah Badger (Florida) and TE Jalin Conyers (Texas Tech). The receivers who do return, namely Troy Omeire (223 yards, three touchdowns), get to work with former NFL great Hines Ward, who was named receivers coach this offseason.
The offensive line last year suffered a rash of injuries. So much so that Dillingham asked for 300+ pound students to walk on at the position just to fill out the field goal unit. At one point, eight offensive linemen graced the injury report. ASU bolstered that unit with six transfers totaling 151 career starts. The good news: it cannot get worse than last year.
But it all comes down to quarterback. ASU brings in Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt (65.2% completion on 23 career attempts) and journeyman Jeff Sims (Georgia Tech & Nebraska). Both are expected to compete for the starting job over incumbent starter Trenton Bourguet (60.6% completion, one TD, four interceptions).
Leavitt offers nothing by way of production, as his snaps were limited at Michigan State. Sims used to offer playmaking potential at the expense of costly turnovers – likely a trade ASU would make this season – but his playmaking potential at Nebraska never really showed, leaving the Huskers with just costly turnovers. The QB battle, while interesting, likely leaves the Sun Devils with a so-so starter at best.
USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) runs into Arizona State Sun Devils defensive lineman B.J. Green II (35) and defensive lineman Prince Dorbah (32) in the first half at Mountain America Stadium in Tempe on Sept. 23, 2023. / Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY
The offense made ASU games difficult to watch; the defense caused fans to leave early. Against Oregon, the “stop” unit allowed six first-half passing touchdowns and fell behind 42-0 in the blink of an eye. Oregon took its foot off the gas, otherwise Bo Nix & Co. could have scored 100 in Tempe, should they have wanted to.
Just three starters from last year return. Normally, that’s cause for concern, but since the defense was so bad in every phase of the game, turnover is necessary. A cominbation of Prince Dorbah, Clayton Smith, and C.J. Fite on the defensive line at least gives the Sun Devils a foundation; Dorbah and Smith combined for 15 tackles for loss and 10 sacks last season. Fite found plenty of time on the field as a true freshman.
In total, ASU brings in 29 transfers. Fifteen of those are defensive transfers, led by SAF Xavion Alford (Texas), LB Zyrus Fiaseu (San Diego State), and CB Cole Martin (Oregon). Up to seven starters on defense are likely transfers, a necessary influx of talent.
Defensively, Arizona State should significantly improve. This unit has the potential to be the single-most improved unit in the Big 12, if not the country. After all, there’s little room to regress after 2023.
Oct 7, 2023; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils wide receiver Troy Omeire (9) catches a touchdown pass against Colorado Buffaloes cornerback Carter Stoutmire (23) in the second half at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Under new offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo, the Sun Devils should move the ball better. Another cluster of injuries to the offensive line is unlikely – although, if there are, changes in the athletic training office should be made – and the quarterback position has no choice but to improve, if only marginally. The reality is, given Arizona State’s history, things can’t get much worse than last year.
The best case scenario for ASU includes the run game being a dominant factor with a deep room and new OC. Leavitt, while inexperienced, drew rave reviews from Dillingham in the spring. The pass catchers have talent, even if the unit itself leaves a lot to be desired.
With such an influx of transfer talent, the defense has a wide range of possible outcomes. One of those outcomes is a top-40 national unit (albeit, the really best case outcome).
The non-conference schedule isn’t a layup, but it’s manageable, hosting Wyoming and Mississippi State while visiting Texas State. But even in the most bullish of projections, we’re talking about an ASU team fighting for bowl eligibiliy. Five wins this year would truly be a major step forward.
Nov 11, 2023; Pasadena, California, USA; UCLA Bruins tight end Moliki Matavao (88) leaps over Arizona State Sun Devils defensive back Shamari Simmons (7) after making a catch during the first half at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Alex Gallardo-USA TODAY Sports / Alex Gallardo-USA TODAY Sports
Unfortunately, the absolute pits for ASU this year is 0-12. Likely? Definitely not. Possible? Absolutely.
Dillingham may have been an ace coordinator at Oregon and Florida State, but he hasn’t shown the chops to be a head coach yet. That’s not counting the win-loss record against him, he was dealt an impossible hand on the field. Dillingham made questionable staff hires, namely OC Beau Baldwin. After just one year, ASU is making big changes to the support staff – not an encouraging signal.
The Sun Devils don’t roster a Power Conference quarterback. While all three QB1 contenders played at Power Conference schools, none of them have the bonafide capability to thrive at that level. Without a real threat at QB – and what could be a very underwhelming WR room – the offense could again be outside the top 100 nationally.
The road slate is very tough: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Arizona. ASU also draws Utah and Kansas at home. Twice are the Sun Devils at a rest disadvantage – Utah and Kansas State both come off bye weeks to handle Arizona State.
Realistically, this is a bottom-of-the-conference team in 2024.
Date
Opponent
Aug. 31
Wyoming
Sept. 7
Mississippi State
Sept. 12 (Thursday)
at Texas State
Sept. 21
at Texas Tech
Sept. 28
BYE
Oct. 5
Kansas
Oct. 12
Utah
Oct. 19
at Cincinnati
Oct. 26
BYE
Nov. 2
at Oklahoma State
Nov. 9
UCF
Nov. 16
at Kansas State
Nov. 23
BYU
Nov. 30
at Arizona
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Source link : https://www.si.com/college/tcu/football/big-12-college-football-team-preview-2024-arizona-state-sun-devils-01j2bqxqz147
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Publish date : 2024-07-10 13:17:44
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