There was a time not long ago when college football conferences were small enough to have every team play each other every year, and outside of nonconference games, everything was more or less the same. Sure, a home vs away slate could hurt or help a team’s overall SOS, but at the end of the day, every team faced every team, and the best team won the conference.
Later, conferences expanded to 12 and 14 teams that saw teams not play each other every year but at least play each other every other season and at least once a year in other sports.
Things have gotten even crazier.
Power Conferences Have Gotten Huge
Sep 23, 2023; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; A detailed view of the Big Ten Conference logo on the field prior to the game between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports
This year, the Big 10 will have 18 teams. Considering that each team plays nine conference games in any given year, a Big 10 team will not play eight or nearly half of the teams. You may now think, okay, that’s fine; they can play the other eight games the next season, right?
Wrong.
Oregon, a new member of the Big 10, will only face Rutgers once over the next four seasons. This is largely because Oregon plays Washington every year and USC and UCLA almost every year, probably due to geography and history. That doesn’t sound like a conference, yet the Big 10 may continue to expand. We are reaching a point where teams in the Power Conferences may only face each other once every five years.
But is this a big issue? Do people care about watching Oregon and Rutgers play? No, but it can affect the strength of the schedule of different teams.
A perfect example is in the SEC.
the big 10 = 18 schools
the pac 12 = 2 schools
the big 12 = 16 schools
the atlantic 10 = 15 schools
atlantic coast conference = schools on the pacific coast
— Jay Cuda (@JayCuda) September 13, 2023
Florida and Missouri Couldn’t Be Further Apart in SOS
Dec 29, 2023; Arlington, TX, USA; Missouri Tigers wide receiver Theo Wease Jr. (1) celebrates after wide receiver Luther Burden III (3) catches a pass for a touchdown against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the fourth quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
The SEC is another conference where teams don’t necessarily face each other very often, and this is truer than ever, with Texas and Oklahoma joining the league. The SEC also only plays eight conference games, unlike the nine that most other conferences play.
This has caused a scheduling disparity between teams within the SEC, and none is as clear as Missouri and Florida.
Missouri’s SEC games include games against Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Auburn, Alabama, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Mississippi State, and Arkansas. Of those teams, only Alabama is considered a top-tiered SEC opponent, while Texas A&M and Oklahoma are in the second tier. Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State could be the worst four teams in the conference.
Conversely, Florida plays Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, LSU, and Ole Miss. Those last four teams are all considered top-tiered and will likely be ranked in the top 15 all season. Kentucky, Tennessee, and Texas A&M are in the second tier, and only Mississippi State is considered a lower-tiered team.
You almost couldn’t draw up an easier schedule for Missouri, while outside of replacing Mississippi State with Alabama, Florida couldn’t have gotten a tougher draw. Yet they share the same SEC logo on their jersey.
SOS should fix this, right? Wrong again.
College Football Committee Members Are Human
Florida Gators wide receiver Eugene Wilson III (3) makes a catch during the second half at the Orange and Blue spring football game at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, April 13, 2024. [Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun]It doesn’t matter how much the College Football Playoff Committee talks about not being influenced by the media; it’s simply impossible not to be. The committee members are watching the same College Gameday and College Football Live shows that the rest of us watch, and whether they admit it or not, the opinions of these hosts affect the committee.
If the media bashes the committee enough on a certain ranking, they tend to change them the following week. There is evidence of this when a team is ranked outside the top ten, gets bashed, and suddenly rises into the Top 10 the next week despite not doing anything to merit the jump.
So, what does this have to do with Florida and Missouri?
Let’s say going into week 11, Florida is 6-4, and Missouri is 9-1. The metrics and SOS may say that Florida is the better team, but the narrative will be that Missouri is having an amazing season and is on track to play in the SEC title game. Will the committee rank Florida ahead of Missouri? Of course not, because they are in the same conference, and the narrative will be that Florida is about to fire Billy Napier while Missouri is on its way to the Playoff.
The same can be said about Kansas in the Big 12. They play six of the bottom projected seven Big 12 teams while avoiding three of the top four. BYU, on the other hand, plays all five of the projected top five and avoids three of the bottom five. While Kansas likely will actually be better than BYU, a 8-4 BYU may be a better team than a 10-2 Kansas, yet it will be the latter team on the CFP bubble.
Does Florida have the Hardest Schedule of ALL-TIME next season?
vs. #24 Miami
vs. Samford
vs. #25 Texas A&M
@ Miss State
vs. UCF
@ #16 Tennessee
vs. #23 Kentucky
vs. #1 Georgia
@ #4 Texas
vs. #12 LSU
vs. #6 Ole Miss
@ #15 Florida State
9/12 Teams Ranked
Is Billy Napier cooked?… pic.twitter.com/7nucVx95LD
— College Football Report (@CFBRep) February 17, 2024
Is There a Solution?
Sep 2, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders talks to quarterback Shedeur Sanders (2) after a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the TCU Horned Frogs at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
At the moment, there is no solution to this. However, I do believe that at some point, once the Big 10, SEC, and maybe the Big 12 get big enough, maybe the Power Conferences will take a long look at things and decide to go to a format that features smaller, regional conferences that will all be under the same “Power” umbrella.
That seems like a long shot; certainly, nothing will happen in the next few years. For now, the system is flawed and will only worsen as conferences expand.
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Publish date : 2024-07-06 06:30:10
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