The Bottom Line
Hurricane Helene is a monster storm — it’s strong, it’s big, and it’s moving fast. The Florida Gulf Coast is forecast experience catastrophic storm surge, intense winds, and tropical rainfall as the storm’s center aims for a landfall Thursday evening. Then Georgia and the Carolinas will experience Helene’s rainy, windy wrath through Friday.
Latest forecast track for Hurricane Helene, as of Thursday morning. (NOAA / NHC)Latest forecast track for Hurricane Helene, as of Thursday morning. (NOAA / NHC)
By the weekend, Helene’s remnant low pressure will be over Kentucky and Tennessee — sitting, spinning, and becoming extratropical (weakening). It is now becoming clear that Helene’s storm track and size will cause some impacts here in New Jersey. Namely, a continuation of unsettled, dreary weather through early next week.
Let me be crystal clear: There is nothing severe or dangerous in New Jersey’s weather forecast. Just clouds and some much-needed rain. No day will be a total washout.
The flash flood threat from Hurricane Helene does not extend as far north as New Jersey. (NOAA / NHC)The flash flood threat from Hurricane Helene does not extend as far north as New Jersey. (NOAA / NHC)
The big question is when Helene’s remnant low will finally unhinge itself and kick out to sea, putting an eventual end to daily rain chances.
7-day rainfall from Thursday to Wednesday shows up to a foot of rain falling over the southeastern United States from Helene. (NOAA / WPC)7-day rainfall from Thursday to Wednesday shows up to a foot of rain falling over the southeastern United States from Helene. (NOAA / WPC)
I am going to lay out the timeline of rain vs. no-rain as I see it now — but keep in mind, this is subject to change and evolve on a daily basis. You do not necessarily need to cancel outdoor plans this weekend. However, you definitely should keep a close eye on the forecast.
Thursday
Thursday’s rain chance is not connected to Helene. Totally separate mechanism in play — a warm front causing temperatures to spike and sparking a few areas of rain throughout the day.
So far, Thursday morning has been misty and drizzly and foggy in spots. (I have to admit, I love the damp start after so much dry weather lately.) Temperatures are in the 60s for most of the state. There are even some 70s along the southern coast. Not all that cool, especially considering it is late September.
Radar shows a solid batch of rain over southeastern Pennsylvania, that will most likely clip northwestern New Jersey later Thursday morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon, again especially focused to the north and west (away from the coast). Total rainfall could reach a half-inch in spots.
A few showers and thunderstorms will impact New Jersey on this mostly cloudy, humid Thursday. (Accuweather)A few showers and thunderstorms will impact New Jersey on this mostly cloudy, humid Thursday. (Accuweather)
Meanwhile, skies will remain mostly cloudy to overcast. And temperatures will spike, to around 75 to 80 degrees. Humidity will creep upward too — dew points around 70 will add a summer-ish stickiness to the air.
The chance of a spot shower will continue through Thursday night. It will be a mild night, due to clouds and humidity, as low temperatures only dip into the upper 60s. That would be a pleasant, typical night in the middle of summer.
Friday
Friday, we will start to feel the effects of Hurricane Helene’s remnants, as it sits and spins about 500 miles southwest of the Garden State. But again, no alarm bells and nothing especially hazardous.
First, in a departure from previous forecasts, cloud cover will remain and humidity levels stay in the “moderate” category at least through Friday. Max temperatures will cool to the lower-mid 70s.
In addition, a broken band of rain showers will push into southern New Jersey around mid to late Friday morning, potentially lifting into central NJ through the afternoon.
The remnants of Helene to the southwest will battle dry air to the north. Not everyone in New Jersey will see rain. (Accuweather)The remnants of Helene to the southwest will battle dry air to the north. Not everyone in New Jersey will see rain. (Accuweather)
It will not be an all-day rain. It will not rain everywhere. (North Jersey looks particularly dry.) And even where it does rain, totals will be on the light side once again.
Saturday
Another batch of wet weather looks to be thrown from Helene into New Jersey early Saturday. So the morning hours do look showery.
Additional periods of rain showers are likely through the weekend, although neither day looks like a total washout. (Accuweather)Additional periods of rain showers are likely through the weekend, although neither day looks like a total washout. (Accuweather)
Forecast models are then trending drier for Saturday afternoon. While cloud cover may thin a little bit, do not expect any blue sky.
High temperatures on Saturday are tricky. I’m calling for lower 70s, due to raindrops, clouds, and a stiff easterly breeze. But if southwestern New Jersey catches a peek of sunshine, a spike into the 80s is a possibility.
Sunday
I suspect Sunday will be the nicer day of this first full weekend of fall. But it will still be quite cloudy. And there is still a reasonable chance for some showers too.
High temperatures on Sunday will be on the cool side, ranging from the mid 60s (north) to upper 60s (central) to lower 70s (south).
The Extended Forecast
Again, the lingering uncertainty is when Helene’s remnants will finally leave us alone. The GFS model puts a batch of pretty heavy rain and breezy conditions over New Jersey on Monday, as the remnant low races by. On the other hand, the Euro model favors one final batch of rain on Tuesday instead.
This element of the forecast is far downstream — there are so many things that have to happen before the “grand finale” plays out. And the exact location and timing of landfall, the exact extent of the storm’s western slide, the exact size and positioning of the storm as it dissipates will all impact that later forecast. That is why the long-range view and Helene’s “grand finale” is so hazy right now — that piece of the forecast puzzle will become much clearer in the next 24 to 48 hours.
New Jersey’s next weathermaker looks to be a good old-fashioned cold front, arriving in the middle of next week. That will potential drive in a (brief and light) round of rain, followed by some crisp autumn air. I have to wonder if temperatures will dip cold enough in NW NJ by the end of next week to bring about the first frost of the season there.
That early October timing would be right on par with climatological averages for first frost. The rest of the state will likely see widespread 30s later in the month.
5 DAY FORECAST: New Jersey Weather CenterThe complete list of names for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.
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