Key takeaways:
•Life-threatening, damaging and disruptive impacts from Helene will not be limited to the Florida coast.
•Damaging wind gusts of 65-75 mph could roar well inland across Georgia into parts of South Carolina.
•Helene could cause a flooding disaster in some areas of the southeastern United States, especially in northern Georgia, upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina.
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Life-threatening, damaging and disruptive impacts from Helen will not be limited to the Florida coast as the quick-moving hurricane will show virility long after it makes landfall late Thursday and gradually loses wind intensity into the weekend, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
“Helene is a very dangerous hurricane and could become a ‘once-in-a-generation storm’ across western South Carolina and North Carolina, as well as northern and eastern Georgia,” AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin stated.
Because of the combination of impacts along the Gulf Coast as well as over vast areas of the interior Southeast, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes for Helene is a 4.
The RealImpact scale accounts for not only strong winds but also impacts from storm surge, flooding rain, the population affected and economic loss throughout the storm’s duration while moving inland.
Typically, hurricanes lose wind intensity rapidly upon moving inland and quickly transition to tropical storms, tropical depressions and, finally, what AccuWeather refers to as tropical rainstorms. But sometimes, other factors can slow that weakening process down at the price of significant risk to lives and property.
“There has been and continues to be great concern among our team of experts that Helene will remain intense enough, coupled with its rapid forward motion, to result in damaging wind gusts of 65-75 mph well inland across Georgia into parts of South Carolina,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter warned.
“Numerous trees can fall, blocking roads and resulting in widespread, long-lasting power outages,” Porter said.
In some rural and heavily wooded areas of the Southeast states, power outages could last for weeks.
The likelihood of damaging winds is in addition to the potential for a number of tornadoes to occur as some hurricanes tend to produce tornadoes well after making landfall. The tornado risk typically exists to the east of the track of the center of the storm.
Flooding from heavy rain could be equally bad or worse than the winds in terms of life-threatening and damaging conditions.
“Helene could cause a flooding disaster in some areas of the southeastern United States, especially in northern Georgia, upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina,” Porter added. Steep terrain in part of this zone can make matters worse.
The high risk of flooding will be due to the combination of rain ahead of Helene into Wednesday night and another thrust of torrential rain Thursday into Thursday night as Helene moves inland.
“The risk is greatest in the steep terrain of the southern Appalachians where mudslides and rockslides can occur,” Porter said, “Some communities may be cut off with no way to enter or exit for days if there is damage to infrastructure such as bridges and roadways.”
In this area, 8-16 inches of rain can fall, with locally higher amounts and the bulk of the rain falling within only a few hours. The rain rate can exceed 2 inches per hour, which is enough to cause rapid, life-threatening flooding. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall for Helene is 24 inches and may occur along the slopes of the southern Appalachians.
“Areas of significant urban flash flooding may also occur, such as in the Atlanta metropolitan area, should rain rates exceed a couple of inches per hour which can result in rapidly rising water and life-threatening flash flooding,” Porter advised.
As runoff progresses downstream into larger waterways, a significant rise on some rivers is likely from the Carolinas and Georgia to Alabama and Tennessee.
Heavy rain is also forecast to reach farther to the north into parts of western Virginia, West Virginia and eastern Kentucky. This region is in serious drought, and any non-flooding rainfall might be welcomed.
Another pocket of heavy rain is forecast to develop mostly in response to a nearby non-tropical storm over portions of Arkansas and Missouri, where localized flash flooding can also occur this weekend.
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Publish date : 2024-09-25 10:12:00
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