Article By
Joe Short
Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024
UK betting sites expect Donald Trump to win the swing state of North Carolina with ease, despite polls suggesting Kamala Harris is neck-and-neck with the former president.
North Carolina carries 16 electoral college votes heading into the November 5 election and has voted Republican in all but one presidential race since 1980.
Established 1997
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The Tar Heel state doesn’t always catapult its chosen candidate into office but it’s seen as a vital battleground for Trump if he is to return to the White House.
Trump has never led Harris by more than a percentage point in the polls here, and right now the lead is down to 0.1%.
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Harris has successfully brought a pink state into play and could even turn it blue this autumn.
Trump beat Joe Biden in the state by just 75,000 votes – his narrowest victory on a night of few notable wins.
This time the ball appears to be in Trump’s court. Economic issues and the rise in living costs are the top issue among voters, yet Harris has somehow clawed back momentum in a state the Dems thought was lost.
Latest North Carolina Election Betting Odds
Why, then, have betting apps sided so heavily with the Republicans?
Bet365 price a Trump win at 8/11 – odds that carry a 62.5% probability of winning. That level would assume North Carolina is a solid Republican state.
William Hill, meanwhile, have the Democrats out at 11/8. This suggests a 44.4% probability and outlines just how far behind the bookies reckon Harris is here.
What’s more, 61% of all bets on this market favour the Dems. The bookies have had to sink their odds on Harris, which suggests they originally had her even wider to win in North Carolina.
It’s hard to fathom the reason for this other than to assume the bookies don’t believe the polls when they show Harris and Trump being neck-and-neck.
North Carolina almost always backs the Republican candidate in the end, so perhaps that’s why new betting sites are so confident of a Trump win here once more.
Established 2001
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Who Will Win North Carolina?
A third of North Carolina’s voters live in rural areas, which traditionally favours the GOP. It is a largely conservative state but did vote for Barack Obama in 2008.
North Carolina is no stranger to the Democrats though. The party is pumping huge resources into the state. They see young women affected by the threat of a state-wide abortion ban as a target demographic.
Black men are also viewed as a decisive demographic in this race. After all, 83% of black voters in North Carolina support Harris. The black vote accounts for 21% of the state – no wonder both candidates are chasing it.
Like many other swing states, the big issue is money, followed by immigration and abortion. America has ridden the post-Covid storm better than most countries and the cost of living crisis has eased in recent months.
However, gas and food prices are still higher than they were when Trump was last in power – and that sticks in the minds of voters.
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Of course, an election cycle is never free of scandal. The one to befall North Carolina is particularly embarrassing for the Republican nominee for governor, Mark Robinson. CNN report he made a series of comments on a pornography message board more than a decade ago, including saying he was a “black NAZI!”.
Trump’s team is trying to distance itself from Robinson but the problem here is that he’s running for election himself. North Carolinians voting for the president will also look over the gubernatorial race and see Robinson’s name; it’s a connection that could swing the state.
It’s possible this state is decided by three or four counties. Harris needs to push into rural areas beyond Charlotte and Raleigh, and into the Charlotte-Mecklenburg County suburbs. There are potentially enough voters here to swing the election, assuming she’s level with Trump elsewhere in the state.
Yet betting sites don’t think it will. Trump has an 18-point lead on Harris according to the odds. They’re all going big on a GOP victory.
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Publish date : 2024-09-23 21:40:00
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