Major hurricane to make landfall in U.S. Gulf Coast
A tropical rainstorm brewing in the Caribbean will strengthen and threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast as a major hurricane toward the end of the week.
A storm expected to become Category 3 Hurricane Helene has its eye on what’s become Florida’s hurricane alley.
The tropical storm’s track has become a familiar one for Panhandle and the Big Bend residents. In August, Category 1 Hurricane Debby made landfall near Taylor and Dixie counties in the eastern Big Bend. Its 7 a.m. landfall was just 45 minutes and ten miles shy of where and when Hurricane Idalia made landfall as a Category 3 in late August 2023. The latest storm and its genesis point have also drawn comparisons to Category 5 Hurricane Michael.
Hurricane watches were posted for North Florida and the peninsula Tuesday morning, a day after Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency, prompting some school districts to announce plans to close for days. Helene is expected to make landfall between Panama City and Tampa Thursday evening.
“Right now you do have time, so take advantage of that time,” DeSantis said Tuesday morning from the state Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee. “Review your plan and make sure you’re executing your hurricane preparedness plan.”
Here are the latest updates from the path of the storm:
A hurricane warning has been issued for Leon and surrounding counties in the Big Bend. The warning means hurricane-force winds are expected within the next 36 hours.
Included in the warning are Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Taylor and Wakulla counties.
The Taylor County Sheriff’s Office issued a mandatory evacuation order for “everyone in Taylor County” effective immediately, it said in a Facebook post.around 4:30 p.m. Tuesday.
“Hurricane Helene is predicted to be a catastrophic and life threatening storm system,” the Sheriff’s Office said. “This system will be unlike anything we have experienced to date. A curfew is effective from sunset to sunrise. Repeat, this is a MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER for everyone.”
Taylor County got hit by Debby, a Category 1 hurricane, last month and Idalia, a devastating Category 4 hurricane, in August 2023.
Earlier, the Sheriff’s Office noted that no shelters could operate safely in the county.
“No shelters will be open in Taylor County due to the anticipated storm intensity. Due to the uncertainty of the storm path, shelters outside of the county are yet to be determined.”
Mayor John Dailey told AccuWeather during an appearance earlier today that Tallahassee was bracing for the possibility of a “direct hit” from Helene.
“The city is currently preparing around the clock,” Dailey said. “As we speak, we’re stationing our assets all over the city as we always do in preparation. We’re going to hunker down, we’re going to weather the storm and then we’ll make our assessments. As soon as it’s done, we’ll get out, start responding to the damage.”
He said the city was expecting a significant wind and rain event, with “significant power outages.”
“We are a Tree City USA — it’s one of the things that we’re known for, and we are a beautiful community,” the mayor said. “But as you know, high wind storms and trees don’t mix. We expect significant damage if it is a Cat. 2 or higher that comes directly to Tallahassee. We’ll have to wait and see what Mother Nature brings.”
The city also announced that mutual-aid electric repair crews were on their way from five different states. They’re expected to arrive by Wednesday night.
ST. MARKS — Some residents of this coastal community south of Tallahassee decided it was time to go Tuesday while some resolved to ride the storm out on a boat. Others got to work.
Restaurant owner Stanley West and his friend lifted metal chairs onto the deck of a pontoon, hauling them away for safe keeping so they wouldn’t turn into projectiles in hurricane force winds.
West, the owner of the Riverside Cafe in St. Marks, has lived in the area for 30 years. On the deck of his restaurant, there’s a wooden beam tagged with the names of hurricanes: Dennis, Hermine, and Michael all the way at the top —the line is taller than he is.
That was a 10-foot storm surge. Helene could bring a whopping 15-foot storm surge when the potential hurricane makes landfall late Thursday.
“If we get a 15-foot surge, ain’t nothing I can do but cross my fingers and pray, and I will be doing a lot of that,” West said.
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Wakulla County Sheriff Jared Miller said in a social media post that current models show 12 feet of storm surge inundating the county from Helene.
“A 12-foot storm surge would be a historic event and not survivable for those along coastal or lowing areas that would be affected,” he said. “Additionally, the impact of strong winds will likely cause some building damage and widespread power outages to our region.”
The sheriff said the time to prepare is now “as conditions will likely begin to deteriorate” on Wednesday afternoon. He also said no shelters will open in Wakulla County.
“We are still working with our state an local partners to arrange for shelters,” the sheriff said. “However this storm is large and every county in our area is likely to be impacted.”
The Wakulla County Commission, which meet in emergency session Tuesday afternoon, issued a countywide mandatory evacuation for citizens and visitors by 8 a.m. Thursday.
The county, in a news release, instructed people to identify their evacuation zone and the closest evacuation route using an interactive hurricane evacuation map.
“No shelters will be open in Wakulla County, please be prepared to seek shelter elsewhere,” the county said. “Remember, there are multiple routes available for you and your families to choose from if the need to evacuate arises. Now is the time to plan and prepare.”
The county added: “We encourage you all to review the map to identify your evacuation zone and plan an evacuation route just in case.”
Sandbags are available at the Wakulla County Sheriff’s Office, 15 Oak St., Crawfordville.
According to the Florida Division of Emergency Management, mandatory evacuation orders have also been issued for Gulf County “All non-residents and all Recreational Vehicles (RV’s) in Indian Pass, Cape San Blas, & Simmons Bayou MUST be evacuated by 8:00 AM Wednesday (09/25)”
Voluntary evacuation have been recommended for Gadsden County, Jefferson County.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this post had an incorrect time for the Wakulla County evacuation order.
The city of Tallahassee said Tuesday that mutual aid crews from five states were on their way to Tallahassee and were expected to arrive late Wednesday.
“Mutual aid crews … are coming from Missouri, Louisiana, Ohio, North Carolina and Oklahoma to assist with response and recovery efforts,” the city said. “Additional crews will be brought in from around the southeast once the hurricane’s path has developed.”
In the National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. advisory, forecasters upgraded the Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine to Tropical Storm Helene. A Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance mission confirmed the storm was packing winds of 35 mph.
“Very recently, data from the plane and one-minute visible satellite imagery indicate that the center has become better defined,” forecasters wrote in their online discussion. “Based on these data, the system is being designated as Tropical Storm Helene at this time.”
Forecasters cautioned that even though models have converged consistently on a tight swath of the Big Bend, a final track is still not certain. Now that a storm has developed they should get more reliable data.
“The track guidance is very tightly clustered, which would normally imply high forecast confidence,” the forecaster wrote. “However, depending on exactly where the center forms could end up shifting the entire guidance suite in future cycles, so it is imperative to not focus on specific landfall locations this far in the future.”
Still the exact track can mean less to a storm that is expected to be as big as Helene, in which impacts will extend far beyond the core.
Forecasters say the storm will grow in size and intensity in the coming hours “reaching a peak intensity around (115 mph) in 48 hours while over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.”
Everyone is gun shy in Taylor County.
That’s what Jody Roberts, a lifelong resident of Perry, “Tree Capital of the South,” said about the probable hurricane that might hit an already battered Nature Coast.
It’s still too early to pinpoint the exact location of landfall a likely major Hurrican Helene, but the storm could land in Taylor County again – making it the third time the area has been hit by a hurricane in a little over a year.
“We’re getting tired of this,” Roberts told the USA TODAY Network – Florida.
Michelle Curtis, who has worked in the forestry industry for more than 50 years, said the region is still reeling from the one – two punch from Hurricanes Idalia and Debby. The August Cat 1 storm laid flat 70 acres of year-and-half old pine she was growing.
“We’re still suffering,” said Curtis.
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Franklin County is issuing a mandatory evacuation for all barrier islands (St. George Island, Dog Island, Bald Point and Alligator Point).The evacuation also includes low-lying and flood-prone areas, especially along the coast and rivers, and mobile homes and RV parks.
The evacuation is effective at noon today, Franklin County Emergency Management announced on Facebook. Additional evacuations are possible.
“If you feel unsafe, then do not shelter at home; leave until the storm has passed and then return,” Franklin County Emergency Management said in a social media post. “Remember that if you have health concerns, EMS will not be able to respond if wind speeds reach 40 mph sustained. It is unsafe for ambulances to be dispatched in high winds.”
The county’s sandbag sites are open today from noon to 5 p.m. and 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Wednesday. The county is providing sand and bags; residents should bring their own shovels. Here are the locations:
The Old State Yard, 1090 Bluff Road, ApalachicolaVrooman Park, 30 6th St., EastpointOld Courthouse Annex, 1647 Highway 98, CarrabelleSGI Firehouse, 324 E Pine Ave., St. George Island
Franklin County Schools are closed Wednesday through Friday.
The Big Bend could see wind speeds over 110 mph from what’s anticipated to become Hurricane Helene — strong enough to cause structural damage to sturdy buildings and destroy mobile homes.
The National Weather Service in Tallahassee shows that the Big Bend coast, from Apalachicola to south of Keaton Beach, could see wind speeds over 110 mph.
Inland communities, including Sneeds, Tallahassee, Monticello, Madison and Mayo, not to mention Thomasville and Valdosta in Georgia, could see wind speeds between 74 to 110 mph.
“Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected near the eventual landfall point and inland along the track,” the National Weather Service said in a Tuesday morning briefing. “Widespread power outages, damage to critical infrastructure, numerous road blockages and damage to structures are all possible.”
NWS also said the electric grid will suffer “significant damage” and that power outages will be likely further away from the storm due to its large size.
Wright Dobbs, meteorologist with the Weather Service, warned that Helene could unleash more damage in Tallahassee than Hurricanes Hermine in 2016 and Hurricane Michael in 2018. Both hurricanes laid waste to Tallahassee’s electric grid, but the Panhandle took the brunt of the winds from Michael, a Category 5 storm.
“Can’t tell you how many people think they survived a cat 5 hurricane in Michael in Tallahassee,” Dobbs said in a post on X/Twitter late Monday. “Focus on the potential impacts with THIS storm because if the current potential impacts verify, it could bring greater impacts than what Michael/Hermine brought to Tally.”
Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the Apalachee Bay coast. Surge between 10 and 15 feet is possible between the Ochlockonee and Suwannee River and 6-10 feet from the Ochlockonee River west to Indian Pass in Gulf County.
The Weather Service said the area could get widespread rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches possible.
The Weather Prediction Center shows the area has a moderate risk (3 out of 4) for excessive rainfall on Thursday. Tornadoes also are possible Thursday.
The Big Bend is under a hurricane watch as a still disorganized tropical disturbance is expected to strengthen to a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday and hit Florida’s Gulf Coast.
The hurricane watch is in effect for Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Jefferson, Lafayette, Liberty, Leon, Madison, Taylor, Wakulla.
At 8 a.m., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located in the northwest Caribbean Sea and moving northwest at 9 p.m. according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
The system is forecast to rapidly strengthen from a tropical depression today to a tropical storm and hurricane by Wednesday. The Hurricane Center said it will continue strengthening Thursday before it makes landfall.
The latest forecast from the Hurricane Center was not strikingly different from Monday night’s.
The cone of uncertainty, which shifted slightly east, still shows the hurricane making landfall somewhere between Panama City and Tampa Bay. The center line of the cone, which forecasters caution people not to focus on, is just to the east of the Tallahassee area.
“There are going to be these little wobbles to the east and to the west,” said David Reese, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tallahassee. “But this far out, they’re kind of noise. The track may have shifted east 20 miles or 30 miles. Three days out in the world of weather, that’s almost nothing.”
Reese said the single biggest change in the forecast was a slow down in forward motion, which could bring it to the Big Bend coast later than earlier thought.
“Now it looks to be a little bit more of a Thursday afternoon into Thursday night potential event, as opposed to a Thursday morning into the afternoon event,” Reese said.
Contact Jeff Burlew at jburlew@tallahassee.com or 850-599-2180.
Source link : https://rocketswire.usatoday.com/story/news/hurricane/2024/09/24/hurricane-helene-coming-updates-from-the-path-of-the-storm-tropics-storm-leon-county-tallahassee-fl/75355880007/
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Publish date : 2024-09-24 10:10:00
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