A 2023 opinion survey revealed that 67% of Montanans understand that global warming is happening and will affect our plants, animals, and future generations.
However, a much smaller percentage (37%) thinks that climate change will impact them personally. I’ve wondered about this gap between knowledge, perception, and action. Is the broad lack of concern about climate change driven by a deep-seated belief that Montanans can tough through any environmental hardship, or is it simply that climate change is not considered pressing enough to merit attention?
I suspect both are true. We are proud of our resilience to severe, often-unexpected weather events, but make no mistake — Montana, like the rest of the planet, is in a climate crisis that will worsen as our children and grandchildren grow up.
The Montana Climate Assessment ( reports that temperatures have already warmed 2-3 degrees Fahrenheit since the 1950s, with projections for an additional warming of 4.5-6 Fahrenheit by 2050 and 10-12 Fahrenheit by 2100. We’re facing weeks of temperatures over 90oF and fewer days below freezing in the coming decades.
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The season of precipitation is also shifting, with springs becoming wetter and winters and summers drier. Since 2000, most counties have experienced some level of drought that will likely continue. Snowpack in the region’s mountains is 20-80% lower than in the 1950s, and by 2100, it will largely be gone below 10,000 feet. Current trends toward more rain/less snow, and earlier snow melt are not going to end, and streamflow in 2050 will peak weeks earlier than in 1950, with warmer water and lower flows in summer.
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A goal to flatten the temperature curve should be part of every jurisdiction’s planning, with strategies that end fossil fuel use, increase transmission capacity for wind and solar power, and incentivize clean-energy technologies in homes, workplaces, and transportation systems.
For now, climate change in Montana is bringing economic loss as well as economic boom. On the one hand, some ski areas have had to close early or not open at all for lack of snow. In summer, agricultural lands have experienced more water shortages, fires, and invasive weeds, and unhealthy wildfire smoke and low streamflow have dampened tourism and posed health and ecological threats.
On the other hand, people are coming to Montana in record numbers to live and recreate. Combined visitation to Yellowstone and Glacier national parks now exceeds 7 million people, with “climate refugees” coming from parts of the country that are too hot or too dry for comfort. These visitors are good for the economy but stress our backcountry, waterways, and infrastructure.
Why isn’t climate change a central part of the state’s political and energy agenda? Perhaps it’s because we’ve not experienced many extreme climate events: Montanans haven’t faced that the deadly heat waves that have occurred in other places, nor catastrophic floods and droughts, record-breaking hurricanes and tornados, or uncontrolled megafires.
Or perhaps our complacency on climate change rests with the state’s “all of the above energy” policy, which prioritizes coal and natural gas production even when regional energy markets are rapidly turning to renewables.
Together, we can stabilize our climate and conserve the Last Best Place. A goal to flatten the temperature curve should be part of every jurisdiction’s planning, with strategies that end fossil fuel use, increase transmission capacity for wind and solar power, and incentivize clean-energy technologies in homes, workplaces, and transportation systems. We need to support farmers and ranchers who adopt practices that store carbon using less water and fertilizers, and communities that are transitioning to green energy and also building social-economic resiliency. We must also protect and expand wild ecosystems and rivers, so that animals have connected space to move as conditions change.
And most urgently, we need to vote in November with climate in mind.
Cathy Whitlock is a Regents Professor Emerita at Montana State University and lead author of the 2017 Montana Climate Assessment.
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Publish date : 2024-09-24 02:00:00
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