Michigan scored the biggest win of its season, rallying to beat USC in its Big Ten opener last Saturday in thrilling fashion.
The defending National Champions made a quarterback change to Alex Orji and implemented a run heavy scheme that overpowered the Trojans en route to a 27-24 win at home. Now, the Wolverines continue their Big Ten schedule against Minnesota on Saturday afternoon at home as considerable favorites with a low total.
The Golden Gophers have also struggled on offense, which is clear in the total, set in the high 30s.
Spread
Moneyline
Total: 38.5 (Over -106/Under -114)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Minnesota
Darius Taylor: The team’s primary back was shut down against Iowa, rushing the ball 10 times for 34 yards as the team had to abandon the run-heavy script when it fell behind to the Hawkeyes. It will be tough sledding yet again for Taylor as he faces a Michigan defense that is as good as any team against the run this season, allowing about three yards per carry.
Michigan
Alex Orji: Orji drew his first start at quarterback after getting a handful of snaps in the first three weeks. He only passed the ball seven times for 32 yards, but did give the Michigan run game an opening as the team rushed for 290 yards in the victory against USC.
Michigan’s game plan will continue to revolve around its run game. Orji is not a threat as a passer whatsoever, but the 6’3” junior is a threat in the run game. Whether it’s him, or emerging No. 1 running back Kalel Mullings, the Wolverines will look to overwhelm teams on the ground en route to hard nosed wins.
Minnesota may not be equipped to stop the ground-based Wolverines offense, ranking 70th in EPA/Rush so far this season and allowing over 100 yards to North Carolina stud running back Omarion Hampton and Iowa running back Kaleb Jackson.
Michigan may not want to run it up on the scoreboard, but the Gophers are going to be hard pressed to find points against the Michigan defense that is 36th in EPA/Play this season and will force quarterback Max Brosmer into a higher than expected pass rate.
Minnesota team total under is my favorite play in this one when that becomes available, but I don’t envision Michigan running up the score this week with a matchup at Washington on deck as the team looks to suffocate its opponent into a low scoring win.
PICK: UNDER 38.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Source link : https://www.si.com/betting/minnesota-vs-michigan-prediction-odds-key-players-watch-college-football-week-5
Author :
Publish date : 2024-09-23 13:45:00
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source.