The migratory exodus that skyrocketed in Cuba almost three years ago appears to have no end in sight. More than 850,000 migrants from the island have arrived in the United States since 2022, a figure recently published by the Customs and Border Protection Office (CBP) that confirms the “demographic depletion” that researchers talk about, and which has caused a population drop of 18%. There is nothing to indicate that the situation can be reversed: the economic crisis in the country is only increasing, and 2024 is on track to become the second fiscal year with the largest influx of Cubans on the southern border.
“The population decline has continued,” Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos told EL PAÍS. This researcher published a study a few months ago denying that there are more than 11 million people living in Cuba, as the government claims, but only 8.62 million. “With all certainty,” he says, “we are witnessing a process that I have called demographic depletion.” Albizu-Campos insists that the migratory exodus is accompanied by a considerable drop in the number of births and an increase in mortality.
CBP figures certify that 533,000 Cubans arrived in the United States from October 1, 2021, until the end of the fiscal year in 2023. Between October 1, 2023, and August of this year, another 208,000 asylum seekers were added. However, the real migration balance may be higher, since the CBP registry does not include the 110,000 Cubans who have benefited from humanitarian parole since it began in 2023, and it also does not include those who have emigrated with other types of visas.
“In terms of the fiscal year ending in August, the number of ‘encounters’ of Cubans at the borders of the United States has already surpassed the figure recorded in fiscal year 2023,” explains the demographer. “In terms of the calendar year, with the last four months remaining, it is safe to expect that the total number of emigrants to that country will reach just over 260,000 people, exceeding the figure recorded last year, so it can be said that the migratory wave is on a sustained “plateau” since 2022.”
December is the month with the highest influx of Cubans so far this fiscal year, with authorities registering a total of 25,048 at border crossings. This year, nearly 66,000 Cubans have been intercepted by the Coast Guard at sea, one of the most dangerous routes Cubans take through the Florida Straits.
Cubans demonstrate in Miami’s Little Havana neighborhood during a march in solidarity with the protests in Cuba in July 2021.Miami Herald (TNS)Can the Cuban exodus be reversed?
Authorities have claimed that this is the “largest wave of migration in the history of Cuba,” far exceeding the sum of previous ones. United Nations projections predict that by the year 2100 Cuba’s population will be below six million, but the outlook is so bleak that Albizu-Campos believes that this decline will “certainly” come much sooner. “It is a real possibility that is already at the door, in the near future. I don’t think we have to wait until the year 2100 to see it,” he says.
The widespread crisis in Cuba, which has reached a peak since 2021, means that Cubans no longer expect change within the country but outside. The constant power outages, the lack of water, food or medicine, the political repression that has intensified since the historic protests of July 11, the fall in tourism with the coronavirus pandemic and its direct impact on the economy, the sanctions from the United States and the decrease in support from some of the main trading partners such as Venezuela or Mexico have made life on the Island impossible. Some undertake their journey to Nicaragua, cross the Darien, wait for their appointment with CBP One in Mexico. Others row ninety miles to Miami in homemade boats. And thousands continue to destinations such as Spain, Italy, Mexico and Canada, or any of the few places with visa-free access to Cubans, or even wherever the opportunity presents itself.
There is no clear answer to how to reverse an exodus that is also leaving Cuba without a workforce. “People leave because there is a set of rejection factors that push them to abandon their place of origin,” says the economist and demographer. “Reverse the exodus? Stop it? How? As long as these rejection mechanisms, present in the country for at least 60 years, and their cumulative effect on the decision to emigrate remain present, the exodus will not stop. Especially in conditions in which the repression of speech does not allow any possibility of change; combined with the elimination of the old travel restrictions, it makes leaving the only alternative perceived as a solution to the problems,” says Albizu-Campos.
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Publish date : 2024-09-23 21:39:00
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