Trump vs Harris: Iowa Poll 2024 shows the presidential race tightening
A new Iowa Poll reveals Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by 4 points, a significant improvement from President Biden’s previous 18-point deficit.
© Copyright 2024, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.
When it comes to evaluating the job performance of three statewide elected officials, the bright red Republican state of Iowa is showing some shades of purple.
A Democrat, Auditor Rob Sand, retains the highest job approval rating among Iowa’s statewide elected officials at 53%, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.
Meanwhile, Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds’ job approval rating, at 45%, has dropped to its lowest level since she first took office in May 2017.
Republican Attorney General Brenna Bird also scores lower than both, with a job approval rating of 39%.
The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., surveyed 811 Iowans Sept. 8-11 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The job approval numbers for Reynolds show that half of Iowans ― 50% ― disapprove of the way she is handling her job, the highest proportion in the over seven years she has held the office. That’s a drop of 5 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll in June.
Reynolds, who has not yet announced if she will seek re-election in 2026, reached an Iowa Poll job approval high of 59% in February 2019.
Her favorability rating, a separate measure of poll respondents’ general outlook on a person, dropped in the new poll to 48% from 51% in June. Her unfavorable rating was 47%, up from 45% in June.
By a large majority, Republicans still approve of Reynolds at 84%, the same as in the June poll. Her approval rating among Democrats, however, has slipped into single digits at 8%, down from the 12% she tallied in June. She holds steady with independents at 42%.
The governor’s job approval rating also shows a gender gap, with 55% of men approving as opposed to 35% of women. The poll shows 60% of women and 40% of men disapprove of how she is handling her job.
Bird’s approval rating, 39%, was down from 42% in the June poll.
Her favorability rating, however, rose 5 percentage points to 25%, and she’s now above water at 25% favorable to 21% unfavorable. She was at 20% favorable and 23% unfavorable in June.
However, the majority of those polled — 55% — say they don’t know enough about her to offer an opinion.
Respondents say Kim Reynolds’ abortion stance affects their support
Laura Crow, 55, an Iowa City Democrat, said Iowa’s abortion ban “is a big part” of why Reynolds’ numbers may be weaker with women.
“I think that’s quite a restriction of individual liberty. I think she’s taking Iowa in the wrong direction all around,” Crow said.
Don Borgen, 63, a Republican from Pleasant Hill, said he is very much an abortion opponent, but also has concerns that Iowa law may go too far.
A law championed by Reynolds, which took effect in late July after surviving a challenge before the Iowa Supreme Court, bans abortion after embryonic cardiac activity can be detected, usually in about the sixth week of pregnancy.
It includes narrow exceptions for rape, incest, fatal fetal abnormalities and to save the life of the pregnant woman.
“I do believe there should be exceptions such as rape or incest or if the health of the mother is in danger or the health of the child,” Borgen said. “I think those have to be exceptions, and as far as a six-week thing, I don’t know if it’s true or not, but on the commercials, anyway, they say a lot of females don’t even know that they’re pregnant until about the sixth week, so you know, that might be cutting a little bit close.”
The poll found that 64% of Iowa adults say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, a new high since the Iowa Poll began asking the question in 2008. That compares with 33% who say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases and 3% who are not sure.
Iowa Poll: Most Iowans oppose state’s 6-week abortion ban law now in effect
Among Iowans who believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, 29% approve of the job Reynolds is doing. Among those who believe it should be illegal in most or all cases, 75% approve of her job performance.
Reynolds’ education agenda sways some Iowans
Abortion isn’t the only reason Borgen disapproves of Reynolds’ performance as governor.
He cited her successful push in the 2024 legislative session to overhaul the state’s Area Education Agencies, which provide special education, media and instructional services, professional development and other assistance to Iowa public schools. The new law Reynolds backed turns over a large portion of AEA funding to local school districts to use as they please.
“One of the reasons I would say that I was dissatisfied with Reynolds … was the AEA, kind of getting rid of that. I think it is a really bad idea,” Borgen said.
So does 55-year-old Republican elementary school teacher Brenda Luna of Des Moines.
“We were all upset about that … because that is where we get our training,” Luna said. “Those are the people that help with the special needs kids that we have. I mean the governor needs to get herself in an elementary school and come and see what we put up with.”
She also criticized another Reynolds initiative, a 2023 law that turns over a share of public school funding to private school tuition vouchers.
“She wants to have control over education and giving money to private schools, taking away from public schools, and I am totally in disagreement with that,” she said.
“I don’t feel that she sees us as educators, as people, as one of the people on the front line. I feel like she puts us down and you know, it’s not like we get paid a whole lot,” she said, adding, “She’s putting all the responsibility on the teachers and controlling what we teach, what we do and a lot of us are actually scared. And I’m one of them. I’m scared to pick up a book and read to a kid.”
Cuts in education and mental health assistance, particularly in rural areas, are why retired maintenance worker Fred Droste of Fairbank said he disapproves of Reynolds job performance.
“I just think it’s terrible that people have to either travel so far to get any kind of help for, you know, mental health and stuff for their children and that,” said Droste, an independent.
Matt Hupp, 34, a Republican from Des Moines, said he is disappointed that the governor hasn’t focused more on what he considers to be bigger problems facing the state.
“Recently I’ve noticed that the governor is pushing to take away things like flavored vapes and everything like that, and I kind of don’t think that’s really something the governor should or could be able to do necessarily,” Hupp said.
He said the governor should be focused more on combating violence in cities like Des Moines and Davenport.
“Yeah. I mean, a lot of this stuff is just getting out of hand. It’s getting out of control. I feel like the governor could step in for a lot more issues other than just vapes,” he said.
But Lisa Gleason, a Marion Republican, said she is satisfied with Reynolds at the state’s helm.
“I think she did a great job with COVID and opening us back up earlier. I think that her policies have been positive,” said Gleason, 60, who manages a health care clinic. “Her educational policy, I like that she’s working on and getting that changed.”
Gleason said she understands what Reynolds is trying to accomplish with school policies.
“What she’s doing is, it is moving it closer to where it belongs, in the schools,” she said.
Auditor Rob Sand’s job approval holds steady
While Reynolds’ job approval has slipped, Sand’s at 53% matches the finding in the June poll, though that’s down from 55% in February.
Sand’s approval rating of 49% among Republicans dropped 10 percentage points from the June poll, but he gained 11 percentage points among independents, now at 51%.
His approval among Democrats, at 63%, was down from 65% in June and 67% in February.
Luna, the Republican teacher from Des Moines, said she has been impressed with the job Sand has done as auditor.
“You have to have evidence to back the facts up. I analyze everything. So that’s what I looked at and that’s why I totally approve of him because for being a young kid, I give him a lot of credit,” she said. (Sand is 42.) “I feel like he’s on top of things. He’s not going to let anybody utilize that money in the wrong way.”
Kevin Baskins covers jobs and the economy for the Des Moines Register. Reach him at kbaskins@registermedia.com.
About the Iowa Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted Sept. 8-11, 2024, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 811 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent American Community Survey estimates.
Questions based on the sample of 811 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit and, on digital platforms, links to originating content on The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.
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Publish date : 2024-09-23 23:03:00
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