Within two decades, counties that include MetroWest and Greater Milford are expected to see a moderate increase in temperatures and more days above 90 degrees Fahrenheit, according to a USA Today analysis of climate projection data.
According to findings from the Climate Impact Lab, Massachusetts could see an increase of about 3 degrees in the next 20 years. The analysis uses county-level temperature projects to assess how annual warming and extreme heat are expected to change from 2020 to 2040.
Some counties, including Middlesex, Norfolk and Worcester, are projected to see an increase in the number of days each year in which the daytime high exceeds 90 degrees.
Areas in the United States are having significant increases in extreme heat.
Hot, hotter, hottest: How much will climate change warm your county?
“We’re already experiencing an increase in warming and extreme heat across the country,” said Kelly McCusker, a climate scientist at the Climate Impact Lab. “I think a lot about how that will worsen … and how that heat affects people unequally.”
How much hotter will your county get?
Middlesex: A moderate increase of about 2.68 degrees over the next 20 years, with about five more days above 90 degrees each year.
Norfolk: A moderate increase of about 2.67 degrees over the next 20 years, with about four more days above 90 degrees each year.
Worcester: A moderate increase of about 2.68 degrees over the next 20 years, with about five more days about 90 degrees each year.
How will warming impact the rest of the U.S.?
Climate change is expected to have a striking impact on temperatures throughout the country over the next two decades, but the impact will be uneven, according to the analysis.
Parts of the U.S. could see different effects of increasing heat. For example, the Gulf Coast could experience a significant increase in extreme heat. Large parts of the northern U.S. could see dramatic warming and across the country, more Americans may be exposed to the harmful effects of heating.
Within two decades, counties that include MetroWest and Greater Milford are expected to experience more days above 90 degrees Fahrenheit, according to a USA Today analysis of climate projection data.
Cool regions of the U.S. that were analyzed are also expected to experience a significant increase in average annual temperatures. States already known for their hot climate, such as Arizona, are expected to see the biggest increase in days above 95 degrees.
Throughout the country, escaping the effects of climate change may become more challenging. While historically cooler regions are getting much warmer, hotter regions face more dangerous heat.
What to know about the projections
USA Today used data from climate models that make two main assumptions. First, future population and economic development follow historical patterns. Second, stringent climate policies enable significant emissions reductions by 2100.
Scientists refer to this set of assumptions as a “middle of the road” scenario for how social and economic changes may impact how climate change unfolds.
Technically, the scenario is named SSP2-4.5 and is just one of many possible climate scenarios.
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USA Today grouped counties with similar increases in warming into three categories.
About 1,100 counties are projected to see a “significant” increase of 2.6 to 4.5 degrees in average annual temperatures.
More than 1,600 counties with an increase of 2.1 to 2.6 degrees may see “moderate” warming.
Just 517 counties are likely to experience “minimal” warming: an increase of 1.0 to 2.1 degrees in annual temperatures.
These boundaries were chosen because they represent natural “breaks” in the distribution of data.
This story includes reporting by USA Today reporter Abhinav S. Krishnan.
This article originally appeared on MetroWest Daily News: US heat projects indicate uneven impact of climate change by county
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Publish date : 2024-09-23 09:30:00
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