Trump vs Harris: Iowa Poll 2024 shows the presidential race tightening
A new Iowa Poll reveals Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by 4 points, a significant improvement from President Biden’s previous 18-point deficit.
Statewide, 52% of likely Iowa voters prefer a Republican for Congress, while 44% prefer a Democrat.Southeast Iowa’s 1st District is the only race where a Democrat is preferred, 49% to 46%.A Republican is preferred by 8 percentage points in central Iowa’s competitive 3rd District race, 52% to 44%.
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More likely Iowa voters prefer a Republican candidate over a Democrat in three of the state’s four congressional districts but lean toward a Democrat in southeast Iowa’s 1st District, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
All four of the state’s congressional districts are currently held by Republicans.
The results represent a change from the most recent Iowa Poll in June. Then, voters in all four congressional districts preferred a Republican.
In the new poll, 52% of likely voters statewide say they support Republican candidates for Congress, while 44% say they support Democrats. Four percent are not sure.
That’s narrower than when the same question was asked in the June Iowa Poll. Then, with President Joe Biden still leading the Democratic ticket, Republicans held an 18-percentage point advantage statewide.
The vast majority of both Republicans (97%) and Democrats (96%) say they will vote for their party’s candidate for Congress, while independents prefer Republicans over Democrats, 51% to 37%.
The results in each congressional district are:
1st District: 46% Republican, 49% Democrat, 5% not sure.2nd District: 52% Republican, 44% Democrat, 1% other, 4% not sure.3rd District: 52% Republican, 44% Democrat, 4% not sure.4th District: 57% Republican, 38% Democrat, 5% not sure.
Iowa’s 1st and 3rd congressional districts are expected to be competitive this year. Both Democrats and Republicans have spent millions of dollars on advertising, and political forecasters rate the two races as either “lean Republican” or “tilt Republican.”
The poll of 811 Iowa adults, including 656 likely voters, was conducted Sept. 8-11 by Selzer & Co. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for questions asked of likely voters.
The margin of error for the individual congressional districts ranges from plus or minus 7.1 percentage points in the 1st District to 8 percentage points in the 3rd District.
A Democrat is preferred by slim margin in 1st District as Christina Bohannan takes on Mariannette Miller-Meeks
The poll shows the 1st District is the closest of the four races, with a Democratic candidate favored by 3 points over a Republican.
Democrat Christina Bohannan is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the district, which includes 20 counties in southeast Iowa, including the cities of Iowa City, Davenport and Keokuk.
The race is a rematch from 2022, when Miller-Meeks defeated Bohannan, a University of Iowa law professor and former state representative, by 7 percentage points.
Bohannan has outraised Miller-Meeks in four straight fundraising quarters since entering the race. Both parties have poured millions of dollars of advertising into the district.
Iowa Poll results in the 1st District have swung back and forth this year between favoring a Democrat and favoring a Republican.
In June, the Iowa Poll showed 41% supported a Democratic candidate and 53% supported a Republican. But in February, 49% supported a Democrat and 45% supported a Republican.
All three of Iowa’s other districts showed a Republican advantage in February and June.
Erin Vermette, a 33-year-old poll respondent from Bettendorf, said the deciding issue for her vote this year is abortion. The engineer and registered Democrat said Bohannan is “a strong supporter of reproductive rights.”
“I want as many pro-choice people in Congress as possible to restore Roe v. Wade,” she said.
Vermette said she also thinks Miller-Meeks is too supportive of former President Donald Trump.
“So that also taints my opinion of Mariannette Miller-Meeks,” she said. “It makes me question her judgment.”
Jim Schenk, a 62-year-old Republican poll respondent from Mount Pleasant, said he plans to vote for Miller-Meeks this year. But, unlike Vermette, he said he’s frustrated that she hasn’t done more to stand up for Trump.
“When Trump’s been attacked multiple times, she just wants to sit back and not say anything because she’s in a heavily Democrat area,” he said.
Miller-Meeks fended off a Republican primary challenge from businessman David Pautch in June, winning 56% to 44% in a race where Pautch accused her of being insufficiently conservative.
Schenk, who is semi-retired, said he recognizes that the political makeup of the 1st District makes it a “vulnerable” seat for Republicans. Because of that, he doubts he’ll ever get a candidate who represents his views.
“Our own Republicans are so milquetoast wishy-washy that they’re almost worthless,” he said. “And that’s the category I would put Meeks in.”
More: Christina Bohannan, Lanon Baccam outraise Republican opponents in bids for Congress
Schenk said, “the Democrat Party has gone nuts,” and he doesn’t think Miller-Meeks is doing enough to speak out against it or offer solutions.
“She’s just sitting there not doing anything,” he said. “The only thing you can say about her is that she’s not actively harming us like a Democrat would be doing.”
A Republican preferred in 3rd District, where Zach Nunn faces Lanon Baccam
The Iowa Poll shows a Republican candidate is favored by 8 points over a Democrat in the 3rd District, where U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn seeks a second term after narrowly defeating Democratic former U.S. Rep. Cindy Axne in 2022.
He faces a challenge from Democrat Lanon Baccam, a former U.S. Department of Agriculture official.
The 3rd District covers 21 counties in central and southern Iowa, including the cities of Des Moines, West Des Moines, Winterset, Osceola and Ottumwa.
Hunter Dietz, a 20-year-old poll respondent from Ankeny, said he’s supporting Nunn for Congress.
“I believe in candidates who push for a pro-life agenda,” said Dietz, a delivery driver and political independent.
He said Baccam “seems like a nice guy,” but he disagrees with the Democrat’s attacks on Nunn over abortion, which he called “a smear campaign.”
Baccam is running multiple ads against Nunn focused on a moment in a 2022 Republican primary debate when Nunn raised his hand after being asked if he believed all abortions should be illegal, with no exceptions.
Nunn has said this year that he does not support a federal abortion ban and believes abortion policy should be left to states.
Baccam has also criticized Nunn for his 2018 vote in the Iowa Senate for a nearly identical version of the six-week abortion ban that took effect in the state this year.
Dietz said of Baccam, “I think that if you’re a strong enough candidate, you should be able to defend your own views on your own platform without having to bring down the other guy.”
More: At Register Soapbox, Zach Nunn lays out ‘the ABCs of being a much better government’
Greg Honnold, 62-year-old poll respondent from Urbandale, is supporting Baccam this year.
Honnold, who works at a financial institution, described himself as “a Bob Ray Republican,” referring to the former Iowa governor. He said he sees Baccam’s campaign this year as a “full circle” moment after Ray welcomed thousands of Tai Dam refugees into Iowa in the 1970s, including Baccam’s parents.
But the main issue for Honnold is abortion. He said he likes Baccam’s stance on the issue.
“Any kind of restriction on that, to me it’s nobody’s darn business,” Honnold said. “Especially for a man.”
Honnold said he doesn’t believe Nunn is willing to stand up to the members of the Republican Party who “don’t care about governing.”
“If part of your party’s doing something mean or mean-spirited, why not stand up to them?” he said. “Show a little guts. Show some integrity.”
More: ‘Our freedoms are on the line’: Lanon Baccam criticizes abortion ban at Register Soapbox
A Republican is favored over a Democrat in 2nd District
A Republican candidate is favored by 8 points over a Democrat in the 2nd Congressional District, which covers 22 counties in northeast Iowa, including the cities of Cedar Rapids, Waterloo and Dubuque.
Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson has held the seat since 2020, when she flipped it from Democratic control. She faces a challenge from Democrat Sarah Corkery.
No-party candidate Jody Madlom Puffett is also on the ballot.
Hinson has a large fundraising advantage over Corkery. National Democrats have not targeted the race in the same way they have in the 1st and 3rd districts, leaving Corkery with little outside support.
The latest Iowa Poll result shows a closer race than in June, when a Republican candidate held a 21-point advantage.
A Republican candidate preferred by wide margin in 4th District as Randy Feenstra seeks reelection
Likely voters prefer a Republican candidate by a wide margin over a Democrat in Iowa’s conservative 4th District, where Republican U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra is seeking reelection.
The district spans 36 counties in western Iowa, including the cities of Ames, Marshalltown, Council Bluffs, Sioux City and Fort Dodge.
More: ‘Hungry for Republican red meat’: 2024 Iowa primaries show many GOP voters want more MAGA
Feenstra beat Democrat Ryan Melton by 37 percentage points in 2022. Melton is seeking a rematch this year and has the backing of Feenstra’s Republican primary opponent, Kevin Virgil.
The 19-point advantage for a Republican candidate in the current Iowa Poll is narrower than the 25-point margin the party enjoyed in the June Iowa Poll.
Stephen Gruber-Miller covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. He can be reached by email at sgrubermil@registermedia.com or by phone at 515-284-8169. Follow him on Twitter at @sgrubermiller.
Stephen Gruber-Miller covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. He can be reached by email at sgrubermil@registermedia.com or by phone at 515-284-8169. Follow him on Twitter at @sgrubermiller.
About the Iowa Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted Sept. 8-11, 2024, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 811 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent American Community Survey estimates.
Questions based on the sample of 811 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit and, on digital platforms, links to originating content on The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.
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Publish date : 2024-09-22 13:01:00
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