Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight edge over former president Donald Trump in five battleground states, according to CBS News’ estimates.
The Democratic nominee is up by four points nationally, according to the broadcaster’s latest polling, but the race in the seven most competitive states remain a tossup just over six weeks from Election Day.
Since the presidency is won based on the Electrical College system rather than the popular vote, Harris and Trump will need to triumph in enough swing states to surpass the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House.
As of Sunday, CBS News estimated that Harris is narrowly leading Trump in Arizona (50 percent to 49 percent), Michigan (50 percent to 48 percent), North Carolina (49 percent to 48 percent) and Wisconsin (50 percent to 48 percent).
CBS News Battleground-state estimates
Nevada – 🔵 Harris 51-48%
Wisconsin – 🔵 Harris 50-48%
Michigan – 🔵 Harris 50-48%
Arizona – 🔵 Harris 50-49%
North Carolina – 🔵 Harris 49-48%
Pennsylvania – 🟡 Tie 49-49%
Georgia – 🔴 Trump 50-49%
NE-2 – 🔵 Harris 51-47%
Estimates updated… pic.twitter.com/lpZzwUPhpl
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 22, 2024
In Nevada, she is leading 51 percent to Trump’s 48 percent, while she is also ahead in Nevada’s second congressional district, 51 percent to 47 percent.
Pennsylvania is the closest swing state race, according to the estimates, with both Trump and Harris on 49 percent, while Trump is narrowly ahead in Georgia at 50 percent to Harris’ 49 percent.
However, the estimates are all within the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The Trump and Harris campaigns have been contacted for comment via email.
Vice President Kamala Harris on September 20, 2024, in Atlanta. The Democratic nominee is ahead in five battleground states, according CBS News’ latest polling.
Vice President Kamala Harris on September 20, 2024, in Atlanta. The Democratic nominee is ahead in five battleground states, according CBS News’ latest polling.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Meanwhile, Nate Silver’s model has Harris favored to beat Trump in four of the swing states.
Silver’s model gives Harris a 63 percent chance of winning Michigan, a 57 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania, a 56 percent chance in Wisconsin and ahead on 53 percent in Nevada.
Michigan is the “one swing state you could probably say is leaning Harris rather than a pure tossup,” Silver wrote in a Substack post on Saturday.
He said it is more likely that Pennsylvania “will be slightly Republican-leaning, as it was in the prior two elections,” while Wisconsin could be a worry for Harris given the “massive polling errors underestimating Trump in 2016 and 2020.”
The election “will be decided by the results in a few swing states (notably Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona),” Andrew Wroe, a senior lecturer in American politics at the University of Kent in the U.K. told Newsweek earlier this week.
“Political junkies are thus very much focused on the state polls. What they see is that swing-state polls show that race is much tighter than the national polls indicate.”
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Publish date : 2024-09-22 10:34:00
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