NORMAN — Saturday marks Oklahoma’s inaugural game in Southeastern Conference play, so it’s early.
But don’t think there’s not already a lot at stake.
Just about no one thinks OU can win. The Vols have ben a steady a 7- to 7 1/2-point favorite, and earlier in the week, 81 percent of the bets and 92 percent of the money wagered on the game was on Tennessee to cover, per Scores and Odds. That’s an almost incomprehensibly massive amount to bet on a ranked underdog at home.
Nobody nationally is picking OU to win on Saturday.
But man, 92 percent of the money is currently on Tennessee -7, according to Scores and Odds.
Might be the perfect spot to fade the public. pic.twitter.com/eivAMeEa05
— Tyler McComas (@Tyler_McComas) September 19, 2024
Bettors usually get what they deserve, so that’s not what’s important here.
What’s important is that Oklahoma can clearly change the nation’s perception with a September conference victory. SEC ready? We find out Saturday night.
This game is an opportunity. It’s not every year you get to start conference play at home with the No. 6-ranked team in the nation. Oklahoma can make a statement.
For the better part of the last three-plus years, Sooner Nation has heard the narrative that OU is not “SEC ready.” Who knows what that narrative would be if Lincoln Riley had stayed? But while the offense may be struggling this year, Brent Venables has rebuilt the Oklahoma defense to compete on this stage. Now, the time has arrived.
It’s only September, and it’s only the first of eight SEC games, but OU’s performance Saturday will either shut a lot of people up, or it will spark a cacophony of “told you so’s.”
Oklahoma could be getting a handful of key starters back Saturday. According to this week’s SEC Availability Report, wideout Nic Anderson, wideout Andrel Anthony and center Troy Everett are “probable,” while center Branson Hickman is “questionable.” Any of them getting into the lineup and making extensive contributions for the first time this year must be seen as an upgrade.
In addition to the team’s improving health, here are three keys to the game:
Like Jackson Arnold, Vols quarterback Nico Iamaleava made his first career start in the bowl game last year.
Unlike Arnold, he was nearly flawless against the Iowa Hawkeyes: 12-of-19 for 151 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions and the Offensive MVP trophy in a 35-0 victory. Arnold, on the other hand, suffered four turnovers in a 38-24 loss to Arizona.
Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava / Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
But this season, his first as the starter, Iamaleava has thrown the football 67 times and already has been intercepted twice. (Arnold has been picked twice on 86 throws.) If Oklahoma’s defensive front — and a rowdy after-dark crowd — can get to Iamaleava, he can be made to give the football away.
OU fans need to be at their absolute loudest from opening kick to final gun.
That’s because the OU defense will face the real stress: a big, experienced and talented Tennessee offensive line (only one player has missed a start so far this season; the starting five has a combined 128 career starts and 28 aggregate years in college), a big-play wide receiver corps (Chris Brazzell, Bru McCoy, Don’t Thornton and Squirrel White have 28 receptions for 525 yards — that’s 19 yards per catch — and three touchdowns), a talented running back in Dylan Sampson (he leads the nation with nine rushing TDs and ranks second in the SEC with 119 rushing yards per game).
And Iamaleava, who’s 6-foot-6, 215 pounds, runs like a deer and throws like a Manning.
Oklahoma is tied for first nationally with 10 takeaways in its first three games, and the Sooner secondary returned intact after ranking second in the nation last year with 20 interceptions.
The real key could be the OU pass rush — much improved from last year, but desperately in need of a statement game.
Just pressuring Iamaleava might not be a good strategy against that rock-solid offensive line because he can hurt a defense by scrambling. But making him uncomfortable in the pocket and confusing him in the secondary might be enough to get the football and steal a couple of possessions.
Let’s face it: Oklahoma’s offensive line, as expected, has been the team’s greatest weakness through three games. Giving up three sacks a game and averaging just 4.34 yards per carry against the likes of Temple, Houston and Tulane does not bode well.
Not with Tennessee coming to town.
The Vols have one of college football’s best defensive lines — arguably the best in the nation, and defensive coordinator Tim Banks knows how to use them. Tennessee has 317 tackles for loss under Banks since the start of the 2021 season, almost eight per game, and 19 times the Vols have had three QB sacks in a game, with 11 games of double-digit TFLs.
Oklahoma wide receiver Deion Burks / BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
This year’s d-line is formidable for any offense, much less an offense searching through its fourth different starting lineup in four games up front. So far this year, 20 different Vols have registered a TFL as Tennessee has racked up three huge blowouts, led by d-end Tyre West. UT’s four QB sacks have gone to four different players, and none of them are preseason first-team All-American James Pearce, who led the SEC last year with 10 sacks and 14.5 TFLs and has been projected as the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft.
All of this is to say that Jackson Arnold needs to be protected when he drops back to pass on Saturday night. If the Sooners have more protection busts like they did last week — that includes the running backs and the tight ends — then Arnold will not have a good game and Oklahoma could lose big.
But if Arnold’s uniform remains relatively clean, he should have time to find his receivers downfield.
Then again, it might be asking too much for Nic Anderson and Andrel Anthony and Deion Burks to light up a Tennessee secondary that is fifth nationally at just 105 passing yards allowed per game, is one of 11 FBS teams that hasn’t given up a TD pass, and hasn’t yielded a completion longer than 28 yards.
One way to keep the Tennessee offense from getting anywhere close to its nation-leading season average of 63.7 points per game is to keep the football, slow the tempo and grind out a handful of touchdown drives.
Josh Heupel likes to go hyper fast. When Tennessee isn’t trying to run out the clock and shorten the game with a big lead, no team goes faster.
The best defense for such tempo is to simply move the chains on offense.
That’s been another of the Oklahoma offense’s big problems.
Through three games — against three mediocre to bad football teams — OU’s offense has had only nine drives of eight plays or more. Of those, only five reached double-digit snaps. And of those, OU got one touchdown, two field goals and two punts.
Against Temple, OU had two drives longer than three minutes (4:51, 4:23). Against Houston, only three drives exceeded three minutes (3:11, 3:22 and 6:11). And against Tulane, three drives went longer than three minutes (5:46, 3:26 and 5:40). Those eight drives produced two field goals and three touchdowns.
We already know the Sooners haven’t gone for the deep ball. The two longest plays of the year both covered just 47 yards — one run by Arnold and one Arnold throw to now-injured Jalil Farooq. OU’s average yards per pass completion of 8.75 currently ranks 131st nationally out of 133 teams — ahead of only Rice and Ball State.
Play-calling has been part of the problem. Arnold has thrown deep (20 yards or more) just 15 percent of the time (13 times on 86 throws), according to Pro Football Focus. And Arnold’s execution on those throws has been another problem: he’s hit just 15 percent of those (2-of-13). Arnold’s 80 yards on 13 deep throws leaves him with an average of 6.15 yards per deep throw, which ranks 157th nationally out of 169 quarterbacks who have completed at least one deep throw.
If Seth Littrell’s offense can’t stay on the field and grind out first downs and produce points that way, then they’re going to have to change their thinking and try to keep up with Tennessee’s high-scoring offense by striking deep.
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Publish date : 2024-09-20 06:03:00
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